Solana’s near-expiry options smile rotated lower over the observation window, alongside a 4.81-volatility-point fall in Solana one-week RR25 to -0.20%. Solana one-week ATM IV fell 1.94 volatility points to 57.41%, and front-end ATM IV averaged 56.03%, down 1.27 volatility points. The combination indicates lower overall front-end implied volatility with a marked move toward relative put-side volatility. Realised-volatility comparisons were unavailable because the required minute-series completeness threshold was not met.
Solana options skew turns defensive
Solana front-end implied volatility declined as one-week relative put-side volatility increased across the window.
Macro
US government bond yields reached a 19-year peak as oil prices rose.
Crypto
Single-source media reporting described a Solana mainnet transaction-size limit upgrade.
Links identify the underlying reporting. Events are presented as context, not assigned causes.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
4 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -1.94 volatility points, to 57.41%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
14 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC to 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC
Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 events were retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Confidencelow causal confidence
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the SOL volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.27 volatility points to 56.03% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -3.10 volatility points to 0.49% across the four available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to 4.85% across the four available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.94 volatility points at 1W, to 57.41%.
Universe roll: added 17SEP26; removed 15SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
18SEP26, -16.22 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, -4.81 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, -1.94 vol pts04
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
3M, +0.44 vol pts05
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
30OCT26, +0.1045 param06
Largest eligible SVI rho move
25SEP26, +0.0479 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
57.41
59.35
-1.94 vol pts
-3.27%
2W
55.83
56.88
-1.05 vol pts
-1.85%
1M
54.86
55.69
-0.83 vol pts
-1.49%
3M
53.99
54.88
-0.89 vol pts
-1.62%
6M
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
9M
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
1Y
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -3.10 volatility points to 0.49% across the four available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-0.20
4.61
-4.81 vol pts
2W
0.37
3.67
-3.30 vol pts
1M
0.82
3.17
-2.35 vol pts
3M
0.97
2.93
-1.96 vol pts
6M
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
9M
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
1Y
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 3M.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to 4.85% across the four available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
4.52
4.83
-0.31 vol pts
2W
4.53
4.65
-0.12 vol pts
1M
4.64
4.99
-0.35 vol pts
3M
5.71
5.27
+0.44 vol pts
6M
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
9M
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
1Y
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.5d
Smile rotation
16SEP26, -13.25 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 6M, 9M, 1Y.
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
16SEP26Expiry effect
0.5 days
97.22
-6.76 USD
58.58%
-5.40 vol pts
-3.56 vol pts
-4.20 vol pts
18SEP26
2.5 days
97.34
-6.61 USD
62.29%
-2.11 vol pts
-7.67 vol pts
-0.85 vol pts
25SEP26
9.5 days
97.34
-6.62 USD
56.69%
-0.93 vol pts
-4.01 vol pts
-0.01 vol pts
30OCT26
44.5 days
97.59
-6.64 USD
54.58%
-0.75 vol pts
-2.06 vol pts
-0.42 vol pts
25DEC26
100.5 days
97.87
-6.77 USD
53.94%
-0.89 vol pts
-1.94 vol pts
+0.50 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
16SEP26rotation towards puts · wing flattening18SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening25SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening30OCT26rotation towards puts25DEC26rotation towards puts
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
16SEP26
18SEP26
25SEP26
30OCT26
25DEC26
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25SEP26; the largest sigma change occurred at 30OCT26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
16SEP26
+0.03220
-0.09510
-0.07310
-0.02440
+0.11360
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
18SEP26
-0.02440
+0.01610
+0.04780
+0.04580
+0.09200
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25SEP26
-0.01600
+0.01610
+0.04790
+0.05260
+0.03910
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26
-0.03210
+0.02690
-0.02530
+0.00630
+0.10450
rotation towards puts
25DEC26
-0.00270
+0.01080
-0.00090
+0.03790
-0.02620
rotation towards puts
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-SOL ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-SOL ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
