01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Solana fund report meets oil backdrop
CoinDesk reported record weekly Solana ETF inflows, and Al Jazeera described an oil rise after Washington rejected Tehran’s proposal.
Macro
Al Jazeera reported that Brent crude rose after Washington dismissed Tehran’s proposal to end the war. That is broad market context, with no measured link to Solana’s one-week skew.
Crypto
CoinDesk reported record weekly Solana ETF inflows, with Bitwise taking two-thirds of them. The fund report concerns Solana directly, but no measured reaction connects it to the one-week RR25 fall.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
3 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +0.73 volatility points, to 57.69%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
27 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC to 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the SOL volatility surface.
At the 13:13 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 57.69%, 3.35 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 61.04%; 30-day realised volatility was 57.46%.
Front-end ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.09 volatility points to 56.17% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.76 volatility points to 0.95 volatility points across the three available headline tenors.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.44 volatility points to 3.60 volatility points across the three available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.73 volatility points at 1W, to 57.69%.
Universe roll: added 30SEP26; removed 28SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.