01 · Executive summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.77 volatility points across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.09 volatility points across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.15 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.00 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.92 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: added 29APR26; removed 25APR26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
02 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
Largest eligible smile rotation
28APR26, +6.49 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +2.92 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
1M, -0.44 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI sigma move
8MAY26, -0.2206 paramLargest eligible SVI rho move
29MAY26, -0.1511 paramLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
1M, -0.12 vol pts03 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 38.01 | 35.09 | +2.92 vol pts | +8.32% |
| 2W | 37.81 | 36.04 | +1.77 vol pts | +4.91% |
| 1M | 39.00 | 38.39 | +0.61 vol pts | +1.59% |
| 3M | 40.44 | 40.20 | +0.24 vol pts | +0.60% |
| 6M | 42.26 | 42.14 | +0.12 vol pts | +0.28% |
| 9M | 43.88 | 43.86 | +0.02 vol pts | +0.05% |
| 1Y | 44.91 | 44.85 | +0.06 vol pts | +0.13% |
04 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1M.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.15 volatility points across the six headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -3.27 | -3.67 | +0.40 vol pts |
| 2W | -4.46 | -4.24 | -0.22 vol pts |
| 1M | -4.83 | -4.39 | -0.44 vol pts |
| 3M | -4.86 | -4.42 | -0.44 vol pts |
| 6M | -4.86 | -4.66 | -0.20 vol pts |
| 9M | -4.59 | -4.53 | -0.06 vol pts |
| 1Y | -4.37 | -4.37 | 0.00 vol pts |
05 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.00 volatility points across the six headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 1.79 | 1.73 | +0.06 vol pts |
| 2W | 1.64 | 1.64 | 0.00 vol pts |
| 1M | 1.81 | 1.93 | -0.12 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.06 | 2.00 | +0.06 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.14 | 2.14 | 0.00 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.17 | 2.19 | -0.02 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.11 | 2.11 | 0.00 vol pts |
06 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Smile rotation
27APR26, +8.17 vol ptsSmile rotation
26APR26, +3.62 vol pts07 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
The ATM chart above is the standard-tenor term structure. The listed-expiry table below preserves the exchange maturity detail underneath those interpolated tenors.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward now (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV now | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26APR26Expiry effect | 0.3 days | 77,634.37 | +200.29 USD | 22.88% | +0.45 vol pts | +0.61 vol pts | -0.29 vol pts |
| 27APR26Expiry effect | 1.3 days | 77,614.24 | +183.06 USD | 30.06% | +0.24 vol pts | +2.42 vol pts | -0.14 vol pts |
| 28APR26 | 2.3 days | 77,617.25 | +203.75 USD | 33.82% | +2.16 vol pts | +2.27 vol pts | +0.05 vol pts |
| 1MAY26 | 5.3 days | 77,607.01 | +173.72 USD | 38.43% | +3.49 vol pts | +1.07 vol pts | +0.09 vol pts |
| 8MAY26 | 12.3 days | 77,596.19 | +153.01 USD | 37.43% | +1.68 vol pts | -0.16 vol pts | +0.04 vol pts |
| 15MAY26 | 19.3 days | 77,605.9 | +149.72 USD | 38.58% | +0.78 vol pts | -0.34 vol pts | -0.14 vol pts |
| 29MAY26 | 33.3 days | 77,654.76 | +178.94 USD | 39.07% | +0.53 vol pts | -0.44 vol pts | -0.12 vol pts |
| 26JUN26 | 61.3 days | 77,739.28 | +145.50 USD | 40.22% | +0.41 vol pts | -0.50 vol pts | +0.06 vol pts |
| 31JUL26 | 96.3 days | 77,932.23 | +129.82 USD | 40.47% | +0.22 vol pts | -0.43 vol pts | +0.05 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 152.3 days | 78,260.37 | +173.21 USD | 41.39% | +0.20 vol pts | -0.29 vol pts | -0.01 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 243.3 days | 78,958.68 | +178.71 USD | 43.37% | -0.03 vol pts | -0.09 vol pts | -0.01 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 334.3 days | 79,697.81 | +185.90 USD | 44.63% | +0.04 vol pts | -0.02 vol pts | 0.00 vol pts |
08 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
09 · SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 29MAY26; the largest sigma change occurred at 8MAY26.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26APR26 | +0.01610 | -0.03970 | +0.03970 | +0.01000 | -0.10000 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 27APR26 | +0.01290 | -0.02500 | +0.03730 | +0.00650 | -0.07240 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 28APR26 | +0.01680 | -0.02630 | -0.01330 | -0.01080 | -0.10120 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 1MAY26 | +0.04110 | -0.04150 | -0.06870 | -0.03970 | -0.19030 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 8MAY26 | +0.05250 | -0.04660 | -0.06620 | -0.04550 | -0.22060 | parallel shift higher |
| 15MAY26 | +0.04880 | -0.04490 | -0.02640 | -0.01200 | -0.18320 | rotation towards puts |
| 29MAY26 | +0.06450 | -0.03590 | -0.15110 | -0.08730 | -0.14880 | rotation towards puts |
| 26JUN26 | +0.02580 | -0.01160 | +0.02310 | +0.03550 | -0.06980 | rotation towards puts |
| 31JUL26 | +0.03860 | -0.01420 | +0.02020 | +0.03710 | -0.10380 | parallel shift higher |
| 25SEP26 | -0.00120 | -0.00060 | -0.00980 | +0.00060 | +0.00790 | parallel shift higher |
| 25DEC26 | -0.00040 | -0.00070 | -0.00890 | -0.00780 | +0.00390 | limited movement |
| 26MAR27 | -0.00310 | +0.00070 | -0.00320 | -0.00380 | +0.00690 | parallel shift higher |
10 · Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
11 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
- Current snapshot
- 25 Apr 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Comparison snapshot
- 24 Apr 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Comparison window
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Greek normalization
- Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
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