No headline tenor had comparable observations at both endpoints; unavailable values remain suppressed in the tables and charts.
03 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was identified after a healthy coverage check.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.
Skew
RR25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.
Convexity
BF25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV change is unavailable.
Universe roll: added 28APR26; removed 24APR26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
27APR26, +2.36 vol pts02
Largest eligible SVI rho move
8MAY26, +0.2423 param03
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
8MAY26, -0.2124 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
35.09
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
2W
36.04
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
1M
38.39
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
3M
40.20
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
6M
42.14
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
9M
43.86
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
1Y
44.85
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at the displayed tenors.
RR25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
Chart unavailable because fewer than two fixed tenors have reliable observations at both snapshots.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-3.67
Unavailable
Unavailable
2W
-4.24
Unavailable
Unavailable
1M
-4.39
Unavailable
Unavailable
3M
-4.42
Unavailable
Unavailable
6M
-4.66
Unavailable
Unavailable
9M
-4.53
Unavailable
Unavailable
1Y
-4.37
Unavailable
Unavailable
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at the displayed tenors.
BF25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
Chart unavailable because fewer than two fixed tenors have reliable observations at both snapshots.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.73
Unavailable
Unavailable
2W
1.64
Unavailable
Unavailable
1M
1.93
Unavailable
Unavailable
3M
2.00
Unavailable
Unavailable
6M
2.14
Unavailable
Unavailable
9M
2.19
Unavailable
Unavailable
1Y
2.11
Unavailable
Unavailable
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
ATM IV change
25APR26, -15.20 vol pts1.3d
ATM IV change
26APR26, -11.11 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
Chart unavailable because fewer than two fixed tenors have reliable observations at both snapshots.
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
25APR26Expiry effect
0.3 days
77,463.17
-774.11 USD
24.25%
-15.20 vol pts
+1.64 vol pts
-1.04 vol pts
26APR26Expiry effect
1.3 days
77,434.08
-802.42 USD
22.43%
-11.11 vol pts
+1.75 vol pts
-0.65 vol pts
27APR26
2.3 days
77,431.18
-790.61 USD
29.82%
-4.95 vol pts
+0.66 vol pts
-0.16 vol pts
1MAY26
6.3 days
77,433.29
-797.13 USD
34.94%
-4.77 vol pts
+0.68 vol pts
-0.36 vol pts
8MAY26
13.3 days
77,443.18
-800.10 USD
35.75%
-4.28 vol pts
+0.61 vol pts
-0.59 vol pts
15MAY26
20.3 days
77,456.18
-784.04 USD
37.80%
-2.73 vol pts
+0.54 vol pts
-0.76 vol pts
29MAY26
34.3 days
77,475.82
-789.85 USD
38.54%
-2.06 vol pts
+1.28 vol pts
-0.44 vol pts
26JUN26
62.3 days
77,593.78
-793.22 USD
39.81%
-1.28 vol pts
+0.46 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
31JUL26
97.3 days
77,802.41
-791.76 USD
40.25%
-1.08 vol pts
+0.58 vol pts
-0.24 vol pts
25SEP26
153.3 days
78,087.16
-819.15 USD
41.19%
-0.78 vol pts
+0.26 vol pts
-0.14 vol pts
25DEC26
244.3 days
78,779.97
-810.58 USD
43.40%
-0.48 vol pts
+0.11 vol pts
-0.05 vol pts
26MAR27
335.3 days
79,511.91
-830.35 USD
44.59%
-0.43 vol pts
+0.11 vol pts
+0.09 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
25APR26rotation towards calls · wing steepening26APR26rotation towards calls · wing steepening27APR26rotation towards calls · wing steepening1MAY26rotation towards calls · wing steepening8MAY26parallel shift lower · rotation towards calls15MAY26parallel shift lower · rotation towards calls · wing flattening29MAY26rotation towards calls26JUN26parallel shift lower31JUL26parallel shift lower25SEP26parallel shift lower25DEC26parallel shift lower26MAR27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
25APR26
26APR26
27APR26
1MAY26
8MAY26
15MAY26
29MAY26
26JUN26
31JUL26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 8MAY26; the largest sigma change occurred at 8MAY26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
25APR26
+0.00820
-0.02270
+0.15430
+0.05710
+0.00430
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
26APR26
+0.00630
-0.00930
+0.09080
+0.02510
-0.04570
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
27APR26
+0.02260
-0.02750
+0.07480
+0.03910
-0.12080
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
1MAY26
+0.06490
-0.05500
+0.19580
+0.15170
-0.19700
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
8MAY26
+0.09340
-0.07480
+0.24230
+0.21010
-0.21240
parallel shift lower, rotation towards calls
15MAY26
+0.07950
-0.07640
+0.21960
+0.19040
-0.13280
parallel shift lower, rotation towards calls, wing flattening
29MAY26
+0.03980
-0.03320
-0.12020
-0.12920
-0.02540
rotation towards calls
26JUN26
+0.05020
-0.02230
-0.04650
-0.05830
-0.11840
parallel shift lower
31JUL26
+0.01250
-0.01910
-0.03770
-0.05070
+0.02890
parallel shift lower
25SEP26
-0.00100
-0.00890
-0.07420
-0.09380
+0.04230
parallel shift lower
25DEC26
-0.00070
-0.00010
-0.09420
-0.13140
+0.01580
parallel shift lower
26MAR27
+0.00160
+0.00610
-0.03960
-0.07620
-0.03420
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
