BTC daily surface: 2W ATM IV rises 0.26 volatility points
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.05 volatility points, RR25 -0.14 volatility points and BF25 -0.01 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at +0.26 volatility points, to 37.79%.
03 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was identified after a healthy coverage check.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points to 37.87% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 43.55% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.14 volatility points to -4.73% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.01 volatility points to 2.08% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.26 volatility points at 2W.
Universe roll: added 2MAY26; removed 28APR26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
1MAY26, -1.44 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
2W, -0.42 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
2W, +0.26 vol pts04
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
1MAY26, -0.2109 param05
Largest eligible SVI rho move
15MAY26, +0.1302 param06
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, -0.11 vol pts
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
37.28
37.25
+0.03 vol pts
+0.08%
2W
37.79
37.53
+0.26 vol pts
+0.69%
1M
38.53
38.69
-0.16 vol pts
-0.41%
3M
40.55
40.45
+0.10 vol pts
+0.25%
6M
42.50
42.34
+0.16 vol pts
+0.38%
9M
43.92
43.89
+0.03 vol pts
+0.07%
1Y
44.59
44.71
-0.12 vol pts
-0.27%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 2W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.14 volatility points to -4.73% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-4.10
-3.95
-0.15 vol pts
2W
-4.86
-4.44
-0.42 vol pts
1M
-4.87
-4.81
-0.06 vol pts
3M
-5.42
-5.09
-0.33 vol pts
6M
-4.92
-4.87
-0.05 vol pts
9M
-4.54
-4.50
-0.04 vol pts
1Y
-4.21
-4.37
+0.16 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.01 volatility points to 2.08% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.80
1.91
-0.11 vol pts
2W
2.00
1.94
+0.06 vol pts
1M
2.07
2.05
+0.02 vol pts
3M
2.16
2.11
+0.05 vol pts
6M
2.34
2.35
-0.01 vol pts
9M
2.32
2.34
-0.02 vol pts
1Y
2.13
2.21
-0.08 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
Smile rotation
29APR26, -31.24 vol pts1.3d
ATM IV change
30APR26, +2.50 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
29APR26Expiry effect
0.3 days
76,347.21
-970.18 USD
34.07%
-1.05 vol pts
-4.51 vol pts
-0.25 vol pts
30APR26Expiry effect
1.3 days
76,326.81
-1031.02 USD
38.78%
+2.50 vol pts
+0.56 vol pts
+0.06 vol pts
1MAY26
2.3 days
76,307.66
-1033.86 USD
39.17%
+0.90 vol pts
-0.23 vol pts
+0.05 vol pts
8MAY26
9.3 days
76,312.39
-1035.23 USD
37.12%
+0.17 vol pts
-0.05 vol pts
-0.11 vol pts
15MAY26
16.3 days
76,331.79
-1047.98 USD
37.98%
+0.14 vol pts
-0.47 vol pts
+0.09 vol pts
29MAY26
30.3 days
76,375.24
-1038.01 USD
38.54%
-0.20 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
+0.02 vol pts
26JUN26
58.3 days
76,470.29
-1033.95 USD
39.75%
-0.09 vol pts
+0.01 vol pts
-0.03 vol pts
31JUL26
93.3 days
76,660.85
-1031.40 USD
40.59%
+0.10 vol pts
-0.35 vol pts
+0.05 vol pts
25SEP26
149.3 days
76,959.35
-1020.94 USD
41.52%
+0.17 vol pts
+0.04 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
25DEC26
240.3 days
77,596.56
-1042.96 USD
43.56%
+0.10 vol pts
-0.16 vol pts
0.00 vol pts
26MAR27
331.3 days
78,279.08
-1059.12 USD
44.39%
-0.08 vol pts
+0.10 vol pts
-0.06 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
29APR26rotation towards puts · wing steepening30APR26rotation towards calls · wing steepening1MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening8MAY26parallel shift higher15MAY26rotation towards puts29MAY26parallel shift lower26JUN26parallel shift lower31JUL26limited movement25SEP26parallel shift higher25DEC26parallel shift higher26MAR27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
29APR26
30APR26
1MAY26
8MAY26
15MAY26
29MAY26
26JUN26
31JUL26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 15MAY26; the largest sigma change occurred at 1MAY26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
29APR26
+0.00450
-0.01420
-0.18440
-0.08730
+0.03430
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30APR26
+0.01410
-0.01800
+0.03940
+0.02090
-0.05740
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
1MAY26
+0.05420
-0.04650
+0.03970
+0.04810
-0.21090
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
8MAY26
+0.03630
-0.03160
+0.06620
+0.05610
-0.10800
parallel shift higher
15MAY26
+0.03020
-0.01810
+0.13020
+0.09660
-0.12640
rotation towards puts
29MAY26
+0.03400
-0.02240
+0.11610
+0.10150
-0.11410
parallel shift lower
26JUN26
+0.01570
-0.01050
+0.03890
+0.03000
-0.04450
parallel shift lower
31JUL26
+0.02490
-0.01100
+0.02900
+0.03390
-0.08080
limited movement
25SEP26
+0.01420
-0.01040
+0.02100
+0.03100
-0.01730
parallel shift higher
25DEC26
+0.01570
-0.01090
+0.01500
+0.03860
-0.02060
parallel shift higher
26MAR27
+0.01630
-0.01270
+0.01480
+0.02860
-0.01320
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
