01 · Executive summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.30 volatility points across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.16 volatility points across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.19 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.01 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.30 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: added 3MAY26; removed 29APR26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
02 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
Largest eligible smile rotation
2MAY26, -2.78 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, -2.30 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
2W, -0.45 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI rho move
29MAY26, +0.2054 paramLargest eligible SVI sigma move
31JUL26, +0.1806 paramLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
2W, +0.09 vol pts03 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 34.98 | 37.28 | -2.30 vol pts | -6.17% |
| 2W | 36.88 | 37.79 | -0.91 vol pts | -2.41% |
| 1M | 37.83 | 38.53 | -0.70 vol pts | -1.82% |
| 3M | 39.99 | 40.55 | -0.56 vol pts | -1.38% |
| 6M | 42.30 | 42.50 | -0.20 vol pts | -0.47% |
| 9M | 43.76 | 43.92 | -0.16 vol pts | -0.36% |
| 1Y | 44.47 | 44.59 | -0.12 vol pts | -0.27% |
04 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 2W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.19 volatility points across the six headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -3.94 | -4.10 | +0.16 vol pts |
| 2W | -5.31 | -4.86 | -0.45 vol pts |
| 1M | -5.27 | -4.87 | -0.40 vol pts |
| 3M | -5.52 | -5.42 | -0.10 vol pts |
| 6M | -5.04 | -4.92 | -0.12 vol pts |
| 9M | -4.58 | -4.54 | -0.04 vol pts |
| 1Y | -4.41 | -4.21 | -0.20 vol pts |
05 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.01 volatility points across the six headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 1.88 | 1.80 | +0.08 vol pts |
| 2W | 2.09 | 2.00 | +0.09 vol pts |
| 1M | 2.05 | 2.07 | -0.02 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.20 | 2.16 | +0.04 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.30 | 2.34 | -0.04 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.24 | 2.32 | -0.08 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.07 | 2.13 | -0.06 vol pts |
06 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Smile rotation
30APR26, -6.92 vol ptsSmile rotation
1MAY26, -3.57 vol pts07 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
The ATM chart above is the standard-tenor term structure. The listed-expiry table below preserves the exchange maturity detail underneath those interpolated tenors.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward now (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV now | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30APR26Expiry effect | 0.3 days | 75,784.09 | -542.72 USD | 33.28% | -5.50 vol pts | +0.03 vol pts | -1.01 vol pts |
| 1MAY26Expiry effect | 1.3 days | 75,758.05 | -549.61 USD | 38.61% | -0.56 vol pts | -0.23 vol pts | -0.01 vol pts |
| 2MAY26 | 2.3 days | 75,768.16 | -541.28 USD | 35.69% | -2.29 vol pts | -0.14 vol pts | -0.12 vol pts |
| 8MAY26 | 8.3 days | 75,771.73 | -540.66 USD | 35.47% | -1.65 vol pts | +0.20 vol pts | +0.12 vol pts |
| 15MAY26 | 15.3 days | 75,792.17 | -539.62 USD | 37.06% | -0.92 vol pts | -0.44 vol pts | +0.06 vol pts |
| 29MAY26 | 29.3 days | 75,840.34 | -534.90 USD | 37.78% | -0.76 vol pts | -0.38 vol pts | -0.04 vol pts |
| 26JUN26 | 57.3 days | 75,933.6 | -536.69 USD | 38.95% | -0.80 vol pts | -0.30 vol pts | +0.06 vol pts |
| 31JUL26 | 92.3 days | 76,114.36 | -546.49 USD | 40.02% | -0.57 vol pts | -0.10 vol pts | +0.04 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 148.3 days | 76,404.11 | -555.24 USD | 41.29% | -0.23 vol pts | -0.32 vol pts | -0.06 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 239.3 days | 77,036.71 | -559.85 USD | 43.35% | -0.21 vol pts | +0.06 vol pts | -0.06 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 330.3 days | 77,691.62 | -587.46 USD | 44.25% | -0.14 vol pts | -0.15 vol pts | -0.07 vol pts |
08 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
09 · SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 29MAY26; the largest sigma change occurred at 31JUL26.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30APR26 | +0.01440 | -0.03670 | -0.03380 | -0.02090 | +0.02480 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 1MAY26 | +0.00710 | -0.00670 | -0.05290 | -0.02470 | -0.03940 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 2MAY26 | -0.00740 | +0.00730 | -0.08660 | -0.05700 | +0.03210 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 8MAY26 | -0.01240 | +0.01650 | +0.02200 | +0.00370 | +0.00820 | wing steepening |
| 15MAY26 | -0.01090 | +0.01130 | +0.01880 | +0.01300 | +0.02090 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 29MAY26 | -0.00710 | +0.01220 | +0.20540 | +0.15100 | -0.00910 | rotation towards puts |
| 26JUN26 | -0.05900 | +0.03760 | -0.05680 | -0.05050 | +0.13570 | rotation towards puts |
| 31JUL26 | -0.07690 | +0.04030 | -0.03870 | -0.04210 | +0.18060 | parallel shift lower |
| 25SEP26 | 0.00000 | -0.00590 | +0.10940 | +0.13900 | -0.00550 | parallel shift lower |
| 25DEC26 | -0.01870 | -0.00760 | +0.09390 | +0.11600 | +0.05030 | parallel shift lower |
| 26MAR27 | -0.02700 | -0.00610 | +0.09870 | +0.14830 | +0.06580 | parallel shift lower |
10 · Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
11 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
- Current snapshot
- 29 Apr 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Comparison snapshot
- 28 Apr 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Comparison window
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Greek normalization
- Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
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