01 · Executive summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -2.31 volatility points across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.58 volatility points across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.59 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.12 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.94 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: added 12JUN26, 25MAY26; removed 21MAY26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
02 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
Largest eligible smile rotation
29MAY26, +4.48 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, -2.94 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, +1.76 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, -0.26 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI sigma move
24MAY26, +0.1434 paramLargest eligible SVI rho move
26MAR27, +0.0787 param03 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 30.79 | 33.73 | -2.94 vol pts | -8.72% |
| 2W | 33.02 | 35.23 | -2.21 vol pts | -6.27% |
| 1M | 34.54 | 36.31 | -1.77 vol pts | -4.87% |
| 3M | 37.67 | 38.78 | -1.11 vol pts | -2.86% |
| 6M | 41.09 | 41.90 | -0.81 vol pts | -1.93% |
| 9M | 42.83 | 43.40 | -0.57 vol pts | -1.31% |
| 1Y | 43.72 | 44.08 | -0.36 vol pts | -0.82% |
04 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.59 volatility points across the six headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -2.39 | -4.15 | +1.76 vol pts |
| 2W | -4.09 | -5.18 | +1.09 vol pts |
| 1M | -5.03 | -5.58 | +0.55 vol pts |
| 3M | -5.18 | -5.57 | +0.39 vol pts |
| 6M | -5.25 | -5.22 | -0.03 vol pts |
| 9M | -5.07 | -4.88 | -0.19 vol pts |
| 1Y | -4.88 | -4.65 | -0.23 vol pts |
05 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.12 volatility points across the six headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 1.65 | 1.91 | -0.26 vol pts |
| 2W | 1.73 | 1.94 | -0.21 vol pts |
| 1M | 2.09 | 2.16 | -0.07 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.18 | 2.23 | -0.05 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.47 | 2.44 | +0.03 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.43 | 2.48 | -0.05 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.34 | 2.47 | -0.13 vol pts |
06 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Smile rotation
23MAY26, +5.78 vol ptsSmile rotation
22MAY26, -1.45 vol pts07 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
The ATM chart above is the standard-tenor term structure. The listed-expiry table below preserves the exchange maturity detail underneath those interpolated tenors.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward now (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV now | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22MAY26Expiry effect | 0.3 days | 77,550.92 | +82.12 USD | 28.23% | -1.02 vol pts | +0.64 vol pts | -1.08 vol pts |
| 23MAY26Expiry effect | 1.3 days | 77,547.81 | +68.09 USD | 27.58% | -3.63 vol pts | +1.94 vol pts | -0.80 vol pts |
| 24MAY26 | 2.3 days | 77,542.8 | +51.84 USD | 23.92% | -4.63 vol pts | +1.39 vol pts | -0.63 vol pts |
| 29MAY26 | 7.3 days | 77,584.29 | +79.34 USD | 31.02% | -3.40 vol pts | +1.87 vol pts | -0.29 vol pts |
| 5JUN26 | 14.3 days | 77,612.98 | +83.96 USD | 33.07% | -2.26 vol pts | +1.17 vol pts | -0.21 vol pts |
| 26JUN26 | 35.3 days | 77,684.71 | +101.07 USD | 34.85% | -1.64 vol pts | +0.44 vol pts | -0.04 vol pts |
| 31JUL26 | 70.3 days | 77,851.53 | +94.27 USD | 36.47% | -1.36 vol pts | +0.52 vol pts | -0.14 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 126.3 days | 78,187.92 | +72.28 USD | 38.78% | -0.95 vol pts | +0.25 vol pts | -0.01 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 217.3 days | 78,897.1 | +80.83 USD | 41.91% | -0.80 vol pts | -0.14 vol pts | +0.04 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 308.3 days | 79,567.07 | +79.12 USD | 43.24% | -0.48 vol pts | -0.21 vol pts | -0.09 vol pts |
08 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
09 · SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 26MAR27; the largest sigma change occurred at 24MAY26.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22MAY26 | -0.00220 | -0.02560 | -0.02660 | -0.03150 | +0.19510 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 23MAY26 | -0.01700 | -0.00170 | -0.00820 | -0.03230 | +0.20980 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 24MAY26 | -0.01340 | +0.00220 | -0.07680 | -0.06020 | +0.14340 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 29MAY26 | -0.01330 | +0.01010 | -0.02980 | -0.02590 | +0.07300 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 5JUN26 | -0.01470 | +0.00860 | -0.02730 | -0.02090 | +0.07580 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 26JUN26 | +0.01760 | -0.01590 | -0.05730 | -0.05420 | -0.05290 | parallel shift lower |
| 31JUL26 | -0.03940 | +0.01270 | -0.06830 | -0.06860 | +0.12260 | parallel shift lower |
| 25SEP26 | +0.01760 | -0.00750 | -0.01850 | -0.02930 | -0.04290 | parallel shift lower |
| 25DEC26 | +0.01060 | -0.00180 | +0.05240 | +0.06340 | -0.05250 | parallel shift lower |
| 26MAR27 | +0.01880 | -0.01080 | +0.07870 | +0.11590 | -0.04430 | parallel shift lower |
10 · Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
11 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
- Current snapshot
- 21 May 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Comparison snapshot
- 20 May 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Comparison window
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Greek normalization
- Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
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