BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 3.43 volatility points
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.80 volatility points, RR25 -0.52 volatility points and BF25 +0.07 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +3.43 volatility points, to 34.22%.
03 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was identified after a healthy coverage check.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.59 volatility points to 34.37% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points to 42.45% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.52 volatility points to -4.99% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.07 volatility points to 2.15% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +3.43 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: added 26MAY26; removed 22MAY26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
25MAY26, -10.45 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +3.43 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, -1.30 vol pts04
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
29MAY26, +0.2684 param05
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
3M, +0.21 vol pts06
Largest eligible SVI rho move
12JUN26, -0.1856 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
34.22
30.79
+3.43 vol pts
+11.14%
2W
34.00
33.02
+0.98 vol pts
+2.97%
1M
34.90
34.54
+0.36 vol pts
+1.04%
3M
37.62
37.67
-0.05 vol pts
-0.13%
6M
41.12
41.09
+0.03 vol pts
+0.07%
9M
42.88
42.83
+0.05 vol pts
+0.12%
1Y
43.77
43.72
+0.05 vol pts
+0.11%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.52 volatility points to -4.99% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-3.69
-2.39
-1.30 vol pts
2W
-5.22
-4.09
-1.13 vol pts
1M
-5.74
-5.03
-0.71 vol pts
3M
-5.37
-5.18
-0.19 vol pts
6M
-5.24
-5.25
+0.01 vol pts
9M
-4.94
-5.07
+0.13 vol pts
1Y
-4.69
-4.88
+0.19 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 3M.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.07 volatility points to 2.15% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.59
1.65
-0.06 vol pts
2W
1.74
1.73
+0.01 vol pts
1M
2.08
2.09
-0.01 vol pts
3M
2.39
2.18
+0.21 vol pts
6M
2.56
2.47
+0.09 vol pts
9M
2.56
2.43
+0.13 vol pts
1Y
2.51
2.34
+0.17 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
1.3d
Smile rotation
24MAY26, -20.17 vol pts0.3d
Smile rotation
23MAY26, -10.61 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
23MAY26Expiry effect
0.3 days
75,495.2
-2052.61 USD
26.79%
-0.79 vol pts
-1.34 vol pts
-0.34 vol pts
24MAY26Expiry effect
1.3 days
75,493.83
-2048.97 USD
24.78%
+0.86 vol pts
-3.20 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
25MAY26
2.3 days
75,496.07
-2063.90 USD
28.48%
+3.86 vol pts
-1.93 vol pts
+0.03 vol pts
29MAY26
6.3 days
75,510.02
-2074.27 USD
34.28%
+3.26 vol pts
-0.98 vol pts
-0.10 vol pts
5JUN26
13.3 days
75,526.56
-2086.42 USD
33.94%
+0.87 vol pts
-1.01 vol pts
-0.01 vol pts
12JUN26
20.3 days
75,541.3
-2084.57 USD
34.35%
+0.66 vol pts
-1.10 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
26JUN26
34.3 days
75,615.07
-2069.64 USD
35.04%
+0.19 vol pts
-0.55 vol pts
-0.01 vol pts
31JUL26
69.3 days
75,734.43
-2117.10 USD
36.39%
-0.08 vol pts
-0.32 vol pts
+0.28 vol pts
25SEP26
125.3 days
76,037.52
-2150.40 USD
38.67%
-0.11 vol pts
-0.06 vol pts
+0.14 vol pts
25DEC26
216.3 days
76,750.43
-2146.67 USD
41.94%
+0.03 vol pts
+0.03 vol pts
+0.09 vol pts
26MAR27
307.3 days
77,422.95
-2144.12 USD
43.28%
+0.04 vol pts
+0.15 vol pts
+0.15 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
23MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening24MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening25MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening29MAY26rotation towards puts · wing flattening5JUN26rotation towards puts12JUN26rotation towards puts26JUN26rotation towards puts31JUL26limited movement25SEP26limited movement25DEC26parallel shift higher26MAR27parallel shift higher
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
23MAY26
24MAY26
25MAY26
29MAY26
5JUN26
12JUN26
26JUN26
31JUL26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 12JUN26; the largest sigma change occurred at 29MAY26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
23MAY26
-0.02780
-0.00360
+0.06550
+0.03310
+0.37040
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
24MAY26
-0.04500
+0.01550
-0.02430
-0.05170
+0.35870
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25MAY26
-0.02770
+0.02060
-0.12810
-0.09320
+0.17710
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
29MAY26
-0.05290
+0.02940
-0.14570
-0.08050
+0.26840
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
5JUN26
-0.03330
+0.01660
-0.17570
-0.09410
+0.16390
rotation towards puts
12JUN26
-0.01230
-0.00180
-0.18560
-0.09240
+0.08800
rotation towards puts
26JUN26
-0.00840
+0.00840
+0.05820
+0.04840
+0.01940
rotation towards puts
31JUL26
+0.05010
-0.01390
+0.02290
+0.00930
-0.18190
limited movement
25SEP26
+0.09290
-0.04020
+0.01410
+0.02320
-0.22750
limited movement
25DEC26
+0.06550
-0.02530
-0.02560
-0.02120
-0.13250
parallel shift higher
26MAR27
+0.04810
-0.00950
+0.01890
+0.00410
-0.11990
parallel shift higher
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
