01 · Executive summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.59 volatility points across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.04 volatility points across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.52 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.07 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +3.43 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: added 26MAY26; removed 22MAY26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
02 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
Largest eligible smile rotation
25MAY26, -10.45 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +3.43 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, -1.30 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI sigma move
29MAY26, +0.2684 paramLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
3M, +0.21 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI rho move
12JUN26, -0.1856 param03 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 34.22 | 30.79 | +3.43 vol pts | +11.14% |
| 2W | 34.00 | 33.02 | +0.98 vol pts | +2.97% |
| 1M | 34.90 | 34.54 | +0.36 vol pts | +1.04% |
| 3M | 37.62 | 37.67 | -0.05 vol pts | -0.13% |
| 6M | 41.12 | 41.09 | +0.03 vol pts | +0.07% |
| 9M | 42.88 | 42.83 | +0.05 vol pts | +0.12% |
| 1Y | 43.77 | 43.72 | +0.05 vol pts | +0.11% |
04 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.52 volatility points across the six headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -3.69 | -2.39 | -1.30 vol pts |
| 2W | -5.22 | -4.09 | -1.13 vol pts |
| 1M | -5.74 | -5.03 | -0.71 vol pts |
| 3M | -5.37 | -5.18 | -0.19 vol pts |
| 6M | -5.24 | -5.25 | +0.01 vol pts |
| 9M | -4.94 | -5.07 | +0.13 vol pts |
| 1Y | -4.69 | -4.88 | +0.19 vol pts |
05 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 3M.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.07 volatility points across the six headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 1.59 | 1.65 | -0.06 vol pts |
| 2W | 1.74 | 1.73 | +0.01 vol pts |
| 1M | 2.08 | 2.09 | -0.01 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.39 | 2.18 | +0.21 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.56 | 2.47 | +0.09 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.56 | 2.43 | +0.13 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.51 | 2.34 | +0.17 vol pts |
06 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Smile rotation
24MAY26, -20.17 vol ptsSmile rotation
23MAY26, -10.61 vol pts07 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
The ATM chart above is the standard-tenor term structure. The listed-expiry table below preserves the exchange maturity detail underneath those interpolated tenors.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward now (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV now | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23MAY26Expiry effect | 0.3 days | 75,495.2 | -2052.61 USD | 26.79% | -0.79 vol pts | -1.34 vol pts | -0.34 vol pts |
| 24MAY26Expiry effect | 1.3 days | 75,493.83 | -2048.97 USD | 24.78% | +0.86 vol pts | -3.20 vol pts | -0.04 vol pts |
| 25MAY26 | 2.3 days | 75,496.07 | -2063.90 USD | 28.48% | +3.86 vol pts | -1.93 vol pts | +0.03 vol pts |
| 29MAY26 | 6.3 days | 75,510.02 | -2074.27 USD | 34.28% | +3.26 vol pts | -0.98 vol pts | -0.10 vol pts |
| 5JUN26 | 13.3 days | 75,526.56 | -2086.42 USD | 33.94% | +0.87 vol pts | -1.01 vol pts | -0.01 vol pts |
| 12JUN26 | 20.3 days | 75,541.3 | -2084.57 USD | 34.35% | +0.66 vol pts | -1.10 vol pts | -0.04 vol pts |
| 26JUN26 | 34.3 days | 75,615.07 | -2069.64 USD | 35.04% | +0.19 vol pts | -0.55 vol pts | -0.01 vol pts |
| 31JUL26 | 69.3 days | 75,734.43 | -2117.10 USD | 36.39% | -0.08 vol pts | -0.32 vol pts | +0.28 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 125.3 days | 76,037.52 | -2150.40 USD | 38.67% | -0.11 vol pts | -0.06 vol pts | +0.14 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 216.3 days | 76,750.43 | -2146.67 USD | 41.94% | +0.03 vol pts | +0.03 vol pts | +0.09 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 307.3 days | 77,422.95 | -2144.12 USD | 43.28% | +0.04 vol pts | +0.15 vol pts | +0.15 vol pts |
08 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
09 · SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 12JUN26; the largest sigma change occurred at 29MAY26.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23MAY26 | -0.02780 | -0.00360 | +0.06550 | +0.03310 | +0.37040 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 24MAY26 | -0.04500 | +0.01550 | -0.02430 | -0.05170 | +0.35870 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 25MAY26 | -0.02770 | +0.02060 | -0.12810 | -0.09320 | +0.17710 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 29MAY26 | -0.05290 | +0.02940 | -0.14570 | -0.08050 | +0.26840 | rotation towards puts, wing flattening |
| 5JUN26 | -0.03330 | +0.01660 | -0.17570 | -0.09410 | +0.16390 | rotation towards puts |
| 12JUN26 | -0.01230 | -0.00180 | -0.18560 | -0.09240 | +0.08800 | rotation towards puts |
| 26JUN26 | -0.00840 | +0.00840 | +0.05820 | +0.04840 | +0.01940 | rotation towards puts |
| 31JUL26 | +0.05010 | -0.01390 | +0.02290 | +0.00930 | -0.18190 | limited movement |
| 25SEP26 | +0.09290 | -0.04020 | +0.01410 | +0.02320 | -0.22750 | limited movement |
| 25DEC26 | +0.06550 | -0.02530 | -0.02560 | -0.02120 | -0.13250 | parallel shift higher |
| 26MAR27 | +0.04810 | -0.00950 | +0.01890 | +0.00410 | -0.11990 | parallel shift higher |
10 · Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
11 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
- Current snapshot
- 22 May 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Comparison snapshot
- 21 May 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Comparison window
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Greek normalization
- Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
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