01 · Market Read
The session in context.
1W ATM IV fell 5.20 volatility points to 31.93%, an exceptional move at the 100th percentile. Front-end ATM IV averaged 32.61%, -3.80 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 41.30%, -0.21 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope steepened 5.07 points to 10.37 points. 2W RR25 moved 1.65 volatility points toward calls to -3.31%, leaving puts richer than calls. 1W BF25 fell 0.40 volatility points to 1.93%. The nearest eligible forward, 2AUG26, rose $843.71 (+1.32%) to $64,728.82. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.
92 words · Deterministic structured report facts02 · Relevant Market Context
29 Jul 2026, 16:03 UTC to 30 Jul 2026, 16:03 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 events were retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
321 feed articles scanned across 13 feeds and 13 publishers. 70 fell inside the report window; 18 passed source relevance rules; 4 passed the final threshold; 2 events displayed.
03 · Detailed summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -3.80 volatility points to 32.61% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.21 volatility points to 41.30% across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.80 volatility points to -3.88% across the six headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.22 volatility points to 2.26% across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -5.20 volatility points at 1W, to 31.93%.
Universe roll: added 21AUG26, 30OCT26, 3AUG26; removed 30JUL26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
04 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
Largest eligible smile rotation
2AUG26, +8.26 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, -5.20 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
2W, +1.65 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, -0.40 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI sigma move
2AUG26, +0.1758 paramLargest eligible SVI rho move
26MAR27, -0.0481 param05 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 31.93 | 37.13 | -5.20 vol pts | -14.00% |
| 2W | 32.46 | 36.08 | -3.62 vol pts | -10.03% |
| 1M | 33.44 | 36.01 | -2.57 vol pts | -7.14% |
| 3M | 37.53 | 38.82 | -1.29 vol pts | -3.32% |
| 6M | 40.31 | 40.60 | -0.29 vol pts | -0.71% |
| 9M | 41.45 | 41.64 | -0.19 vol pts | -0.46% |
| 1Y | 42.30 | 42.43 | -0.13 vol pts | -0.31% |
06 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 2W.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.80 volatility points to -3.88% across the six headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -2.53 | -4.09 | +1.56 vol pts |
| 2W | -3.31 | -4.96 | +1.65 vol pts |
| 1M | -4.70 | -5.46 | +0.76 vol pts |
| 3M | -4.72 | -5.00 | +0.28 vol pts |
| 6M | -4.30 | -4.61 | +0.31 vol pts |
| 9M | -4.08 | -4.35 | +0.27 vol pts |
| 1Y | -3.70 | -3.96 | +0.26 vol pts |
07 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.22 volatility points to 2.26% across the six headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 1.93 | 2.33 | -0.40 vol pts |
| 2W | 1.93 | 2.22 | -0.29 vol pts |
| 1M | 2.18 | 2.28 | -0.10 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.30 | 2.66 | -0.36 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.62 | 2.73 | -0.11 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.64 | 2.71 | -0.07 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.58 | 2.64 | -0.06 vol pts |
08 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
ATM IV change
31JUL26, -10.88 vol ptsATM IV change
1AUG26, -10.80 vol pts09 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
The ATM chart above is the standard-tenor term structure. The listed-expiry table below preserves the exchange maturity detail underneath those interpolated tenors.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward now (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV now | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31JUL26Expiry effect | 0.7 days | 64,698.75 | +827.93 USD | 32.89% | -10.88 vol pts | +3.12 vol pts | -1.80 vol pts |
| 1AUG26Expiry effect | 1.7 days | 64,720.34 | +842.38 USD | 30.61% | -10.80 vol pts | +2.59 vol pts | -1.15 vol pts |
| 2AUG26 | 2.7 days | 64,728.82 | +843.71 USD | 26.59% | -9.90 vol pts | +2.83 vol pts | -1.21 vol pts |
| 7AUG26 | 7.7 days | 64,764.13 | +847.92 USD | 32.35% | -4.91 vol pts | +1.42 vol pts | -0.40 vol pts |
| 14AUG26 | 14.7 days | 64,814.88 | +844.31 USD | 32.47% | -3.40 vol pts | +1.78 vol pts | -0.28 vol pts |
| 28AUG26 | 28.7 days | 64,916.69 | +848.39 USD | 33.23% | -2.76 vol pts | +0.79 vol pts | -0.11 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 56.7 days | 65,120.31 | +849.65 USD | 35.46% | -1.47 vol pts | +0.51 vol pts | -0.11 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 147.7 days | 65,782.13 | +890.12 USD | 39.67% | -0.37 vol pts | +0.36 vol pts | -0.16 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 238.7 days | 66,447.95 | +875.51 USD | 40.95% | -0.25 vol pts | +0.27 vol pts | -0.05 vol pts |
| 25JUN27 | 329.7 days | 67,101.92 | +854.23 USD | 42.03% | -0.16 vol pts | +0.26 vol pts | -0.06 vol pts |
10 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
11 · SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 26MAR27; the largest sigma change occurred at 2AUG26.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31JUL26 | -0.03190 | -0.04280 | +0.06700 | -0.03400 | +0.67730 | rotation towards calls, wing flattening |
| 1AUG26 | +0.01100 | -0.03120 | -0.02940 | -0.04370 | +0.07120 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 2AUG26 | -0.00960 | -0.01950 | +0.01930 | -0.02190 | +0.17580 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 7AUG26 | +0.00820 | -0.01100 | -0.00180 | -0.01430 | -0.02270 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 14AUG26 | +0.00350 | -0.00450 | +0.03840 | 0.00000 | -0.01090 | rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 28AUG26 | +0.00900 | -0.00670 | +0.02520 | -0.00630 | -0.04460 | parallel shift lower, rotation towards calls, wing steepening |
| 25SEP26 | -0.00520 | +0.00210 | -0.00310 | -0.01470 | +0.01230 | parallel shift lower |
| 25DEC26 | -0.03160 | +0.01700 | -0.01560 | -0.05710 | +0.06880 | parallel shift lower |
| 26MAR27 | +0.03660 | -0.00820 | -0.04810 | -0.04360 | -0.07130 | parallel shift lower |
| 25JUN27 | +0.01050 | -0.00890 | +0.00170 | -0.00360 | -0.00970 | parallel shift lower |
12 · Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
13 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
- Current snapshot
- 30 Jul 2026, 16:03 UTC
- Comparison snapshot
- 29 Jul 2026, 16:03 UTC
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Comparison window
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Greek normalization
- Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
- News window
- 29 Jul 2026, 16:03 UTC to 30 Jul 2026, 16:03 UTC
- Feeds queried
- 13
- Publishers queried
- 13
- Feed articles scanned
- 321
- Inside report window
- 70
- Passed source rules
- 18
- Passed final threshold
- 4
- Stories displayed
- 3
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