BTCSpot-index 24h Unavailable1W ATM IV 32.04%1W RR25 -3.27 vol pts1W BF25 Unavailable1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
Market context · daily observation window
Market context
BTC spot-index return unavailable; 1W ATM IV fell 0.42 volatility points to 32.04% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward calls (+1.08 points); partial native coverage (3/4 measurements).
Previous report, watch levels and methodology
One-week surface context; the published headline retains its original evidence basis. Cutoffs 1 Aug, 23:59 UTC to 2 Aug, 23:59 UTC.
Measured change since prior report
Prior comparison unavailable: the published 2026-08-01 edition is verified but ends at 1 Aug, 13:34 UTC; this window requires 1 Aug, 23:59 UTC.
A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.
Next daily cutoff: measurable checks
These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.
Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 32.04 percent at . Current level 32.04; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 32.46 percent at . Current level 32.04; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt
These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.
RR25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
Smile rotation
3AUG26, +7.99 vol pts1.3d
Smile rotation
4AUG26, -5.47 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentComparison snapshot
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
3AUG26Expiry effect
0.3 days
63,493.35
+725.93 USD
31.83%
+5.48 vol pts
+2.22 vol pts
Unavailable
4AUG26Expiry effect
1.3 days
63,491.29
+716.43 USD
32.83%
+3.84 vol pts
-0.31 vol pts
Unavailable
5AUG26
2.3 days
63,510.64
+728.34 USD
32.39%
+2.78 vol pts
+0.46 vol pts
Unavailable
7AUG26
4.3 days
63,525.46
+728.29 USD
32.37%
+0.01 vol pts
+1.11 vol pts
Unavailable
14AUG26
11.3 days
63,577.32
+716.92 USD
31.84%
-0.75 vol pts
+1.46 vol pts
Unavailable
21AUG26
18.3 days
63,632.14
+719.93 USD
32.07%
-0.51 vol pts
+0.49 vol pts
Unavailable
28AUG26
25.3 days
63,685.12
+716.48 USD
32.27%
-0.77 vol pts
+0.88 vol pts
Unavailable
25SEP26
53.3 days
63,897.08
+733.74 USD
34.56%
-0.52 vol pts
+0.13 vol pts
Unavailable
30OCT26
88.3 days
64,150.16
+741.12 USD
36.69%
-0.29 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
Unavailable
25DEC26
144.3 days
64,576.41
+774.26 USD
39.11%
-0.27 vol pts
-0.14 vol pts
Unavailable
26MAR27
235.3 days
65,242.25
+779.48 USD
40.48%
-0.43 vol pts
-0.40 vol pts
Unavailable
25JUN27
326.3 days
65,923.74
+796.10 USD
41.84%
-0.28 vol pts
-0.26 vol pts
Unavailable
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
3AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening4AUG26rotation towards puts · wing flattening5AUG26parallel shift higher · rotation towards calls · wing steepening7AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening14AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening21AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening28AUG26rotation towards calls25SEP26parallel shift lower30OCT26parallel shift lower25DEC26parallel shift lower26MAR27parallel shift lower25JUN27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
3AUG26
4AUG26
5AUG26
7AUG26
14AUG26
21AUG26
28AUG26
25SEP26
30OCT26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-08-01 23:59:00 UTC → 2026-08-02 23:59:00 UTC
Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
BTC · daily · 2026-08-02 options surface report, with standard-tenor volatility, skew and wing observations.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 32.04% · Δ -0.42 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -3.27 vol pts · Δ +1.08 vol pts
Curve: BTC 1Y minus 1W ATM IV spread +10.16 vol pts · spread Δ +0.18 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 32.04% · Δ -0.42 vol ptspercentile rank 30.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 28AUG26; the largest sigma change occurred at 5AUG26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
3AUG26
+0.01160
-0.03570
+0.05740
+0.00370
+0.12560
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
4AUG26
-0.06210
+0.01290
+0.02820
-0.08530
+0.50930
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
5AUG26
-0.04390
+0.01840
+0.00750
-0.04100
+0.26860
parallel shift higher, rotation towards calls, wing steepening
7AUG26
-0.02890
+0.01990
-0.05680
-0.05430
+0.13880
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
14AUG26
-0.02900
+0.02630
-0.01570
-0.03230
+0.09130
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
21AUG26
-0.02170
+0.02260
-0.04660
-0.04420
+0.05250
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
28AUG26
-0.03180
+0.01940
-0.07320
-0.04600
+0.12630
rotation towards calls
25SEP26
-0.00350
+0.00290
-0.03020
-0.02640
+0.00590
parallel shift lower
30OCT26
+0.00020
-0.00030
-0.01790
-0.01540
-0.00340
parallel shift lower
25DEC26
+0.00650
-0.00640
+0.00190
+0.01100
-0.00860
parallel shift lower
26MAR27
+0.04530
-0.03880
+0.03470
+0.09450
-0.06120
parallel shift lower
25JUN27
+0.06180
-0.05150
+0.04310
+0.12690
-0.07210
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 02 Aug 2026, 23:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
