6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at -0.64 volatility points, to 31.95%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
01 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC to 02 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
No relevant catalyst identified.
No qualifying context was identified after a healthy coverage check.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.54 volatility points to 32.32% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.29 volatility points to 41.03% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.34 volatility points to -4.52% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.02 volatility points to 2.15% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.64 volatility points at 2W, to 31.95%.
Universe roll: added 6AUG26; removed 2AUG26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
14AUG26, +3.62 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, +1.08 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
2W, -0.64 vol pts04
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
5AUG26, +0.2686 param05
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, -0.10 vol pts06
Largest eligible SVI rho move
28AUG26, -0.0732 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
32.04
32.46
-0.42 vol pts
-1.29%
2W
31.95
32.59
-0.64 vol pts
-1.96%
1M
32.97
33.53
-0.56 vol pts
-1.67%
3M
36.88
37.10
-0.22 vol pts
-0.59%
6M
39.85
40.19
-0.34 vol pts
-0.85%
9M
41.16
41.50
-0.34 vol pts
-0.82%
1Y
42.20
42.44
-0.24 vol pts
-0.57%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.34 volatility points to -4.52% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-3.27
-4.35
+1.08 vol pts
2W
-4.35
-5.24
+0.89 vol pts
1M
-4.96
-5.57
+0.61 vol pts
3M
-5.37
-5.36
-0.01 vol pts
6M
-4.99
-4.71
-0.28 vol pts
9M
-4.65
-4.33
-0.32 vol pts
1Y
-4.20
-3.98
-0.22 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.02 volatility points to 2.15% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.79
1.89
-0.10 vol pts
2W
1.91
1.84
+0.07 vol pts
1M
2.06
2.15
-0.09 vol pts
3M
2.17
2.14
+0.03 vol pts
6M
2.55
2.59
-0.04 vol pts
9M
2.51
2.55
-0.04 vol pts
1Y
2.44
2.44
0.00 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
Smile rotation
3AUG26, +7.99 vol pts1.3d
Smile rotation
4AUG26, -5.47 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
3AUG26Expiry effect
0.3 days
63,493.35
+725.93 USD
31.83%
+5.48 vol pts
+2.22 vol pts
-0.50 vol pts
4AUG26Expiry effect
1.3 days
63,491.29
+716.43 USD
32.83%
+3.84 vol pts
-0.31 vol pts
-0.43 vol pts
5AUG26
2.3 days
63,510.64
+728.34 USD
32.39%
+2.78 vol pts
+0.46 vol pts
-0.20 vol pts
7AUG26
4.3 days
63,525.46
+728.29 USD
32.37%
+0.01 vol pts
+1.11 vol pts
-0.23 vol pts
14AUG26
11.3 days
63,577.32
+716.92 USD
31.84%
-0.75 vol pts
+1.46 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
21AUG26
18.3 days
63,632.14
+719.93 USD
32.07%
-0.51 vol pts
+0.49 vol pts
+0.13 vol pts
28AUG26
25.3 days
63,685.12
+716.48 USD
32.27%
-0.77 vol pts
+0.88 vol pts
-0.12 vol pts
25SEP26
53.3 days
63,897.08
+733.74 USD
34.56%
-0.52 vol pts
+0.13 vol pts
+0.03 vol pts
30OCT26
88.3 days
64,150.16
+741.12 USD
36.69%
-0.29 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
+0.02 vol pts
25DEC26
144.3 days
64,576.41
+774.26 USD
39.11%
-0.27 vol pts
-0.14 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
26MAR27
235.3 days
65,242.25
+779.48 USD
40.48%
-0.43 vol pts
-0.40 vol pts
-0.06 vol pts
25JUN27
326.3 days
65,923.74
+796.10 USD
41.84%
-0.28 vol pts
-0.26 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
3AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening4AUG26rotation towards puts · wing flattening5AUG26parallel shift higher · rotation towards calls · wing steepening7AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening14AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening21AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening28AUG26rotation towards calls25SEP26parallel shift lower30OCT26parallel shift lower25DEC26parallel shift lower26MAR27parallel shift lower25JUN27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
3AUG26
4AUG26
5AUG26
7AUG26
14AUG26
21AUG26
28AUG26
25SEP26
30OCT26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 28AUG26; the largest sigma change occurred at 5AUG26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
3AUG26
+0.01160
-0.03570
+0.05740
+0.00370
+0.12560
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
4AUG26
-0.06210
+0.01290
+0.02820
-0.08530
+0.50930
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
5AUG26
-0.04390
+0.01840
+0.00750
-0.04100
+0.26860
parallel shift higher, rotation towards calls, wing steepening
7AUG26
-0.02890
+0.01990
-0.05680
-0.05430
+0.13880
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
14AUG26
-0.02900
+0.02630
-0.01570
-0.03230
+0.09130
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
21AUG26
-0.02170
+0.02260
-0.04660
-0.04420
+0.05250
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
28AUG26
-0.03180
+0.01940
-0.07320
-0.04600
+0.12630
rotation towards calls
25SEP26
-0.00350
+0.00290
-0.03020
-0.02640
+0.00590
parallel shift lower
30OCT26
+0.00020
-0.00030
-0.01790
-0.01540
-0.00340
parallel shift lower
25DEC26
+0.00650
-0.00640
+0.00190
+0.01100
-0.00860
parallel shift lower
26MAR27
+0.04530
-0.03880
+0.03470
+0.09450
-0.06120
parallel shift lower
25JUN27
+0.06180
-0.05150
+0.04310
+0.12690
-0.07210
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
