6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -1.25 volatility points, to 30.39%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
02 Aug 2026, 19:09 UTC to 03 Aug 2026, 19:09 UTC
Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 events were retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Confidencelow causal confidence
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.85 volatility points to 31.25% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.25 volatility points to 40.80% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.24 volatility points to -4.46% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.18% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.25 volatility points at 1W, to 30.39%.
Universe roll: no additions; removed 3AUG26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
6AUG26, -9.17 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, -1.25 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1M, +0.74 vol pts04
Largest eligible SVI rho move
6AUG26, -0.1910 param05
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
25JUN27, -0.1405 param06
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, +0.10 vol pts
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
30.39
31.64
-1.25 vol pts
-3.95%
2W
30.74
31.60
-0.86 vol pts
-2.72%
1M
32.63
33.06
-0.43 vol pts
-1.30%
3M
36.64
36.83
-0.19 vol pts
-0.52%
6M
39.68
39.95
-0.27 vol pts
-0.68%
9M
40.97
41.23
-0.26 vol pts
-0.63%
1Y
41.92
42.15
-0.23 vol pts
-0.55%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1M.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.24 volatility points to -4.46% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-3.70
-3.66
-0.04 vol pts
2W
-4.36
-4.58
+0.22 vol pts
1M
-4.76
-5.50
+0.74 vol pts
3M
-5.04
-5.43
+0.39 vol pts
6M
-4.73
-4.81
+0.08 vol pts
9M
-4.51
-4.50
-0.01 vol pts
1Y
-4.15
-4.19
+0.04 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.18% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.94
1.84
+0.10 vol pts
2W
1.92
1.86
+0.06 vol pts
1M
2.10
2.10
0.00 vol pts
3M
2.22
2.19
+0.03 vol pts
6M
2.51
2.49
+0.02 vol pts
9M
2.47
2.50
-0.03 vol pts
1Y
2.39
2.47
-0.08 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
1.5d
ATM IV change
5AUG26, -1.76 vol pts0.5d
ATM IV change
4AUG26, -1.62 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
4AUG26Expiry effect
0.5 days
63,814.98
+496.30 USD
27.76%
-1.62 vol pts
+0.53 vol pts
-0.33 vol pts
5AUG26Expiry effect
1.5 days
63,826.57
+497.33 USD
28.05%
-1.76 vol pts
+0.40 vol pts
-0.44 vol pts
6AUG26
2.5 days
63,834.12
+497.18 USD
29.41%
-1.52 vol pts
-1.33 vol pts
-0.29 vol pts
7AUG26
3.5 days
63,841.66
+497.02 USD
30.75%
-1.21 vol pts
+0.01 vol pts
+0.09 vol pts
14AUG26
10.5 days
63,884.22
+485.03 USD
30.27%
-1.14 vol pts
+0.18 vol pts
+0.08 vol pts
21AUG26
17.5 days
63,946.27
+495.61 USD
31.02%
-0.80 vol pts
+0.50 vol pts
+0.06 vol pts
28AUG26
24.5 days
63,999.32
+503.87 USD
31.82%
-0.57 vol pts
+0.97 vol pts
-0.05 vol pts
25SEP26
52.5 days
64,200.29
+485.42 USD
34.14%
-0.55 vol pts
+0.33 vol pts
+0.05 vol pts
30OCT26
87.5 days
64,466.52
+489.54 USD
36.39%
-0.26 vol pts
+0.39 vol pts
+0.01 vol pts
25DEC26
143.5 days
64,901.47
+507.70 USD
38.88%
-0.27 vol pts
+0.25 vol pts
+0.01 vol pts
26MAR27
234.5 days
65,569.07
+507.31 USD
40.34%
-0.29 vol pts
-0.07 vol pts
-0.01 vol pts
25JUN27
325.5 days
66,252.07
+499.00 USD
41.58%
-0.25 vol pts
+0.02 vol pts
-0.06 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
4AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening5AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening6AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening7AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening14AUG26wing steepening21AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening28AUG26rotation towards calls25SEP26parallel shift lower30OCT26parallel shift lower25DEC26parallel shift lower26MAR27parallel shift lower25JUN27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
4AUG26
5AUG26
6AUG26
7AUG26
14AUG26
21AUG26
28AUG26
25SEP26
30OCT26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 6AUG26; the largest sigma change occurred at 25JUN27.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
4AUG26
+0.00870
-0.01900
+0.02200
+0.00550
-0.00400
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
5AUG26
-0.00410
-0.00880
-0.05370
-0.04900
+0.10220
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
6AUG26
-0.00450
-0.00120
-0.19100
-0.10050
+0.06280
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
7AUG26
-0.00750
+0.01410
-0.13840
-0.06970
+0.01150
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
14AUG26
-0.01630
+0.01820
-0.10620
-0.05740
+0.05500
wing steepening
21AUG26
-0.02390
+0.02290
-0.07370
-0.04380
+0.08790
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
28AUG26
-0.02530
+0.01650
-0.11610
-0.06050
+0.11930
rotation towards calls
25SEP26
+0.01420
-0.00760
-0.05790
-0.04580
-0.04850
parallel shift lower
30OCT26
+0.02060
-0.01160
-0.05640
-0.05210
-0.05700
parallel shift lower
25DEC26
+0.05360
-0.01750
-0.04700
-0.01920
-0.11710
parallel shift lower
26MAR27
+0.07460
-0.04670
+0.01030
+0.07880
-0.12120
parallel shift lower
25JUN27
+0.07770
-0.01850
-0.08510
-0.06340
-0.14050
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
