Bitcoin options price a sharper near-term volatility premium
Bitcoin one-week ATM IV reached 38.10% after a 3.33-point increase, a notable move in the available history. The front-end lift contrasted with little movement in long-dated ATM IV, leaving the increase concentrated in near-term options.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +3.33 volatility points, to 38.10%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
12 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC to 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC
No relevant catalyst identified.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Implied versus realised
At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 38.10%, 6.96 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.14%; 24-hour realised volatility was 15.53% and 30-day realised volatility was 39.26%.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +2.12 volatility points to 37.00% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 39.30% (+0.11 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.18 volatility points to -0.75% across the five available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 increased, averaging +0.17 volatility points to 2.29% across the five available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +3.33 volatility points at 1W, to 38.10%.
Universe roll: added 17SEP26; removed 13SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
16SEP26, -3.68 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +3.33 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, -0.41 vol pts04
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, +0.35 vol pts05
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
16SEP26, -0.0936 param06
Largest eligible SVI rho move
18SEP26, +0.0531 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
38.10
34.77
+3.33 vol pts
+9.58%
2W
36.54
34.46
+2.08 vol pts
+6.04%
1M
36.36
35.40
+0.96 vol pts
+2.71%
3M
38.23
37.96
+0.27 vol pts
+0.71%
6M
39.30
39.19
+0.11 vol pts
+0.28%
9M
40.41
40.39
+0.02 vol pts
+0.05%
1Y
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.18 volatility points to -0.75% across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-0.77
-0.36
-0.41 vol pts
2W
-0.67
-0.50
-0.17 vol pts
1M
-0.88
-0.75
-0.13 vol pts
3M
-0.65
-0.51
-0.14 vol pts
6M
-0.76
-0.72
-0.04 vol pts
9M
-0.64
-0.62
-0.02 vol pts
1Y
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.17 volatility points to 2.29% across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
2.11
1.76
+0.35 vol pts
2W
2.15
1.88
+0.27 vol pts
1M
2.28
2.11
+0.17 vol pts
3M
2.33
2.27
+0.06 vol pts
6M
2.56
2.58
-0.02 vol pts
9M
2.70
2.72
-0.02 vol pts
1Y
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.6d
Smile rotation
14SEP26, -10.93 vol pts1.6d
ATM IV change
15SEP26, +6.33 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
14SEP26Expiry effect
0.6 days
77,221.48
-138.54 USD
28.08%
+6.93 vol pts
-1.73 vol pts
-0.03 vol pts
15SEP26Expiry effect
1.6 days
77,225.57
-152.58 USD
32.07%
+6.33 vol pts
-1.05 vol pts
+0.23 vol pts
16SEP26
2.6 days
77,250.67
-132.36 USD
33.95%
+4.73 vol pts
-1.12 vol pts
+0.80 vol pts
18SEP26
4.6 days
77,262.58
-148.97 USD
39.77%
+4.76 vol pts
-0.77 vol pts
+0.37 vol pts
25SEP26
11.6 days
77,311.29
-139.73 USD
36.74%
+2.43 vol pts
-0.09 vol pts
+0.25 vol pts
2OCT26
18.6 days
77,387.05
-131.29 USD
36.30%
+1.44 vol pts
-0.14 vol pts
+0.24 vol pts
30OCT26
46.6 days
77,643.06
-151.05 USD
36.40%
+0.62 vol pts
-0.13 vol pts
+0.11 vol pts
27NOV26
74.6 days
77,933.69
-160.76 USD
37.99%
+0.32 vol pts
-0.08 vol pts
+0.04 vol pts
25DEC26
102.6 days
78,271.64
-147.23 USD
38.36%
+0.23 vol pts
-0.15 vol pts
+0.03 vol pts
26MAR27
193.6 days
79,188.27
-167.38 USD
39.37%
+0.09 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
25JUN27
284.6 days
80,173.54
-198.87 USD
40.51%
0.00 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
-0.02 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
14SEP26
15SEP26
16SEP26
18SEP26
25SEP26
2OCT26
30OCT26
27NOV26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 18SEP26; the largest sigma change occurred at 16SEP26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
14SEP26
-0.02060
+0.01410
-0.11010
-0.04760
+0.19750
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
15SEP26
-0.00220
-0.00020
-0.07370
-0.02510
+0.02470
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
16SEP26
+0.00920
+0.00300
+0.01210
+0.01580
-0.09360
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
18SEP26
-0.02160
+0.02030
+0.05310
+0.02890
+0.06870
parallel shift higher, rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25SEP26
-0.01230
+0.01510
+0.00200
-0.00120
+0.02850
parallel shift higher, wing steepening
2OCT26
-0.00620
+0.00780
+0.04910
+0.03210
+0.00460
parallel shift higher, wing steepening
30OCT26
-0.01920
+0.01950
+0.00410
-0.01170
+0.04940
parallel shift higher
27NOV26
-0.00570
+0.01600
-0.03780
-0.03330
-0.00530
parallel shift higher
25DEC26
-0.00390
+0.00070
+0.01200
+0.01310
+0.00940
parallel shift higher
26MAR27
+0.00560
-0.00340
-0.00720
-0.00440
-0.00800
parallel shift higher
25JUN27
-0.00650
+0.00050
+0.00820
+0.00760
+0.01660
parallel shift higher
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.2 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was low at 0.17.
Implied-volatility premium
BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.17%, against VIX at 15.84: a 19.33-point spread and 2.22× ratio.
Realised-volatility regime
BTC 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 33.31%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 8.99%. The spread ranked at 36.6 percentile of 232 prior observations.
Equity co-movement
Return correlation with SPX was 0.167 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.296 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 14.47, 15.84 and 18.60.
As of 11 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. DerivaSys 30-day fixed-tenor surface and canonical crypto index; VIX from ^VIX and SPX RV from ^GSPC. Crypto RV annualisation sqrt(365); SPX RV annualisation sqrt(252). Providers: derivasys+yahoo_finance.
13 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
Current snapshot
13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC
Comparison snapshot
12 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
