01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Strategy purchase and withdrawal restoration reported
CoinDesk covered Bitcoin alongside rising bond yields, while Cointelegraph reported Strategy’s financing and Bitget’s phased withdrawal restoration.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
Cointelegraph reported that Strategy sold MSTR shares and used the proceeds for Bitcoin purchases and STRC preferred stock repurchases. It separately reported Bitget’s Bitcoin withdrawal restoration, with Ether and USDt withdrawals scheduled to return later. Both developments concern Bitcoin, but neither has a measured link to the six-month BF25 decline.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV
Model-derived and market-implied volatility.
Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.
38.62 vol points
Measurement 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC
At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag
38.00 vol points
Measurement 28 Sept 2026, 13:11:45 UTC
At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag
-0.62 vol points
As of 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.
Index evidence and methodology
DS30 · Source measurement 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices
BVIV · Source measurement 28 Sept 2026, 13:11:45 UTC; observed receipt 28 Sept 2026, 13:12:00 UTC; ingested 28 Sept 2026, 13:12:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel
BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff
{
"schemaVersion": 1,
"source": "market-context-mcp",
"type": "btc_volatility_context_latest",
"asset": "BTC",
"asOfTimestamp": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00",
"status": "available",
"ds30": {
"value": 38.62352135281649,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00",
"observedAt": null,
"ingestedAt": null,
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00"
},
"availability": null,
"methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices"
},
"bviv": {
"value": 38.002246337773,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-09-28T13:11:45+00:00",
"observedAt": "2026-09-28T13:12:00+00:00",
"ingestedAt": "2026-09-28T13:12:00+00:00",
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 75,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00"
},
"availability": "streaming",
"methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel"
},
"bvivMinusDs30": {
"value": -0.6212750150434871,
"units": "volatility_points",
"status": "available",
"methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff"
}
}Source index JSON02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +2.78 volatility points, to 34.60%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
27 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC to 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
At the 13:13 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 34.60%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 33.93%; 24-hour realised volatility was 31.12% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.73%.
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +2.11 volatility points to 34.72% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.11% (+0.36 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.30 volatility points to -1.04 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.17 volatility points to 1.82 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.78 volatility points at 1W, to 34.60%.
Universe roll: no additions; removed 28SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.