01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Fund inflows and macro constraints
Bitcoin reporting paired a slowdown in crypto ETF inflows with discussion of crude prices and conditions for non-yielding assets.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
Cointelegraph reported that US spot crypto ETF inflows slowed across Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP funds while inflow streaks held.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV
Model-derived and market-implied volatility.
Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.
37.59 vol points
Measurement 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC
At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag
36.97 vol points
Measurement 29 Sept 2026, 21:57:58 UTC
At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag
-0.62 vol points
As of 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.
Index evidence and methodology
DS30 · Source measurement 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices
BVIV · Source measurement 29 Sept 2026, 21:57:58 UTC; observed receipt 29 Sept 2026, 21:58:00 UTC; ingested 29 Sept 2026, 21:58:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel
BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff
{
"schemaVersion": 1,
"source": "market-context-mcp",
"type": "btc_volatility_context_latest",
"asset": "BTC",
"asOfTimestamp": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00",
"status": "available",
"ds30": {
"value": 37.59305937261349,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00",
"observedAt": null,
"ingestedAt": null,
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00"
},
"availability": null,
"methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices"
},
"bviv": {
"value": 36.973298631651,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-09-29T21:57:58+00:00",
"observedAt": "2026-09-29T21:58:00+00:00",
"ingestedAt": "2026-09-29T21:58:00+00:00",
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 62,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00"
},
"availability": "streaming",
"methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel"
},
"bvivMinusDs30": {
"value": -0.6197607409624908,
"units": "volatility_points",
"status": "available",
"methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff"
}
}Source index JSON02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -1.32 volatility points, to 32.15%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
28 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC to 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
At the 21:59 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 32.15%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 32.73%; 24-hour realised volatility was 32.00% and 30-day realised volatility was 35.28%.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.04 volatility points to 32.92% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.83% (-0.27 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.49 volatility points to -0.43 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.07 volatility points to 1.81 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.32 volatility points at 1W, to 32.15%.
Universe roll: added 3OCT26; removed 29SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.