BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV
Model-derived and market-implied volatility.
Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.
38.09 vol points
Measurement 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC
At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag
37.25 vol points
Measurement 30 Sept 2026, 16:28:56 UTC
At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag
-0.84 vol points
As of 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.
Index evidence and methodology
DS30 · Source measurement 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices
BVIV · Source measurement 30 Sept 2026, 16:28:56 UTC; observed receipt 30 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC; ingested 30 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel
BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff
{
"schemaVersion": 1,
"source": "market-context-mcp",
"type": "btc_volatility_context_latest",
"asset": "BTC",
"asOfTimestamp": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
"status": "available",
"ds30": {
"value": 38.091291521792066,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
"observedAt": null,
"ingestedAt": null,
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00"
},
"availability": null,
"methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices"
},
"bviv": {
"value": 37.253443468873,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-09-30T16:28:56+00:00",
"observedAt": "2026-09-30T16:29:00+00:00",
"ingestedAt": "2026-09-30T16:29:00+00:00",
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 64,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00"
},
"availability": "streaming",
"methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel"
},
"bvivMinusDs30": {
"value": -0.837848052919064,
"units": "volatility_points",
"status": "available",
"methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff"
}
}Source index JSON02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -2.30 volatility points, to 30.86%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
29 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC to 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTCNo catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 30.86%, 2.73 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 33.59%; 24-hour realised volatility was 41.44% and 30-day realised volatility was 35.30%.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.49 volatility points to 32.24% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.72% (-0.34 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.21 volatility points to -0.69 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.25 volatility points to 2.04 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.30 volatility points at 1W, to 30.86%.
Universe roll: added 4OCT26; removed 30SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.