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Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 0.38 points to 38.37%

BTC spot fell 1.33%; Skew moved toward puts (-0.14 vol points); Wing premium increased (+0.09 vol points).

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 2 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

Generated timestamp:

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-11-02 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-11-01 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-11-02 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

  • BTCSpot-index 24h -1.33%1W ATM IV 40.50%1W RR25 -4.15 vol pts1W BF25 +1.17 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +5.35 vol pts

Lead move: BTC 2W ATM IV Δ -0.38 vol pts → 38.37% · percentile rank 25.0% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=24).

2W ATM IV – selected tenor
Percent

2W ATM IV – selected tenor. Percent. BTC: Current 38.37, Previous 38.75.CurrentPreviousBTC38.3738.750.0020.9341.85

Current: 2 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC
Previous: 1 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 0.38 points to 38.37%. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
ATM IV, percent · 2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00
TenorBTC currentBTC previous
1W40.5040.20
2W38.3738.75
1M37.7537.81
3M37.9037.97
6M38.8738.77
9M39.3639.25
1YUnavailableUnavailable
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms
Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 1 Nov, 17:31 UTC to 2 Nov, 17:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-11-01: “Bitcoin options show higher 1w RR25 skew”

Previous publication cutoff 1 Nov, 17:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 1 Nov, 17:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 b2f4ee9636047f817e465b10e279cd2dce90ae7f55179f676aa72a4f2aca1c79

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-11-01 daily edition.

  • BTC 2W ATM IV: prior change -0.16 → current change -0.38 volatility points; same direction.
  • BTC spot-index return: prior change +0.76 → current change -1.33 percent; direction reversed.
  • BTC 2W RR25: prior change +1.61 → current change -0.14 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC 2W BF25: prior change -0.14 → current change +0.09 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC 1W RR25 ≥ -3.75 volatility points (hold the observed endpoint) at 2 Nov, 17:31 UTC: not met (observed -4.15 volatility points).
  • BTC 1W RR25 ≤ -5.41 volatility points (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 2 Nov, 17:31 UTC: not met (observed -4.15 volatility points).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 2W ATM IV ≤ 38.37 percent at . Current level 38.37; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 2W ATM IV ≥ 38.75 percent at . Current level 38.37; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 37af26cb03cee4e6b46833262db408ad1ff47f5b9fe9e2d48775c2b881742d49

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/daily/2026-11-01/b2f4ee9636047f817e465b10e279cd2dce90ae7f55179f676aa72a4f2aca1c79.json · SHA-256 b2f4ee9636047f817e465b10e279cd2dce90ae7f55179f676aa72a4f2aca1c79

Consumed endpoint proof: 9b5244e1ddc98dc426250886c9bf08f5371e4ac346caad70e24904c87463a53f

  • BTC:atmIv:2W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:2W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00.
Chart notes

01 · Daily briefing

Macro · Crypto · Options

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 0.38 points to 38.37%

The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was -0.38 volatility points over the stored comparison. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitcoin ETFs lost […] million in outflows Friday, and […] is barely green now”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Live updates: Bitcoin bounce fades as Binance records […] billion outflows after starting withdrawals”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitcoin ETFs lost […] million in outflows Friday, and […] is barely green now”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Live updates: Bitcoin bounce fades as Binance records […] billion outflows after starting withdrawals”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

42.44 vol points

Measurement 02 Nov 2026, 17:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

41.44 vol points

Measurement 02 Nov 2026, 17:29:58 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 62s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-1.00 vol points

As of 02 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at -0.38 volatility points, to 38.37%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

01 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC to 02 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 40.50%, 5.35 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 35.15%; 24-hour realised volatility was 30.30% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.68%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.05 volatility points to 38.87% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.87% (+0.10 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.10 volatility points to -3.74 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 1.14 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.38 volatility points at 2W, to 38.37%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -1.33% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -3.96% over seven days.

Universe roll: no additions; removed 2NOV26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

5NOV26, -3.59 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, -0.40 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, -0.38 vol pts
04

Largest eligible SVI rho move

27NOV26, +0.2529 param
05

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

13NOV26, -0.2248 param
06

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, +0.09 vol pts

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W40.5040.20+0.30 vol pts+0.75%
2W38.3738.75-0.38 vol pts-0.98%
1M37.7537.81-0.06 vol pts-0.16%
3M37.9037.97-0.07 vol pts-0.18%
6M38.8738.77+0.10 vol pts+0.26%
9M39.3639.25+0.11 vol pts+0.28%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.10 volatility points to -3.74 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-4.4 vol pts-3.8 vol pts-3.2 vol pts-2.6 vol pts-2.0 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-4.15-3.75-0.40 vol pts
2W-4.16-4.02-0.14 vol pts
1M-3.88-3.78-0.10 vol pts
3M-3.82-3.91+0.09 vol pts
6M-2.67-2.70+0.03 vol pts
9M-2.22-2.30+0.08 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity by standard tenor.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 1.14 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

0.9 vol pts1.0 vol pts1.1 vol pts1.2 vol pts1.4 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W1.171.08+0.09 vol pts
2W1.171.08+0.09 vol pts
1M1.081.07+0.01 vol pts
3M1.141.16-0.02 vol pts
6M1.121.120.00 vol pts
9M1.051.07-0.02 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

Smile rotation

3NOV26, -14.37 vol pts
1.6d

Smile rotation

4NOV26, -6.95 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

37.4%38.3%39.1%40.0%40.8%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
3NOV26Expiry effect0.6 days76,997.9-1043.31 USD37.01%+0.45 vol pts-1.88 vol pts-0.14 vol pts
4NOV26Expiry effect1.6 days77,010.93-1042.46 USD47.11%+1.81 vol pts-1.45 vol pts+0.17 vol pts
5NOV262.6 days77,023.78-1046.25 USD45.44%+1.91 vol pts-1.15 vol pts+0.14 vol pts
6NOV263.6 days77,036.46-1041.52 USD44.03%+2.40 vol pts-0.84 vol pts+0.07 vol pts
13NOV2610.6 days77,125.65-1038.12 USD39.15%+0.07 vol pts-0.05 vol pts+0.12 vol pts
20NOV2617.6 days77,208.14-1043.59 USD37.86%-0.49 vol pts-0.27 vol pts+0.04 vol pts
27NOV2624.6 days77,291.85-1040.33 USD37.69%-0.10 vol pts-0.38 vol pts+0.05 vol pts
25DEC2652.6 days77,643.47-1043.09 USD37.87%0.00 vol pts+0.64 vol pts-0.09 vol pts
29JAN2787.6 days78,033.52-1051.65 USD37.84%-0.10 vol pts+0.09 vol pts-0.01 vol pts
26MAR27143.6 days78,693.72-1054.40 USD38.42%+0.09 vol pts-0.08 vol pts+0.02 vol pts
25JUN27234.6 days79,774.64-1068.29 USD39.25%+0.10 vol pts+0.11 vol pts-0.01 vol pts
24SEP27325.6 days80,866.45-1093.21 USD39.46%+0.10 vol pts+0.06 vol pts-0.01 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

3NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
4NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
5NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
6NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
13NOV26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
20NOV26wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26mixed reshaping
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
29JAN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.0 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.78.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 38.45%, against VIX at 19.42: a 19.03-point spread and 1.98× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 32.36%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 11.78%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 30.3% of 267 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.780 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.492 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 19.25, 19.42 and 20.78.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 02 Nov 2026, 17:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 02 Nov 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 02 Nov 2026, 17:29:58 UTC; observed receipt 02 Nov 2026, 17:29:59 UTC; ingested 02 Nov 2026, 17:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 02 Nov 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 62s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON
RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-11-02 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-11-01 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-11-02 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 2 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 2W ATM IV 38.37% · Δ -0.38 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 25.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

Original report summary

BTC 2W ATM IV is 38.37 percent, compared with 38.75 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 40.50% · Δ +0.30 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -4.15 vol pts · Δ -0.40 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 40.50% / 7D RV 35.15% · spread +5.35 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 40.50% · Δ +0.30 vol ptspercentile rank 25.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -4.15 vol pts · Δ -0.40 vol ptspercentile rank 29.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.17 vol pts · Δ +0.09 vol ptspercentile rank 58.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 40.50% / 7D RV 35.15% · spread +5.35 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 25.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 29.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 58.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 37af26cb03cee4e6b46833262db408ad1ff47f5b9fe9e2d48775c2b881742d49.

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 0.38 points to 38.37% Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metricCohortCount / horizonActual boundsOverlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a7635f0dd602893f13b7bf03af052e6c0b42c52283f52ad73498d84bfd3c4d97
BTC 1W atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3c0047d96f1473948e2971171800cadcb83c66ef46f3cddab1b9f22c60fd0a2f
BTC 1W atmIvlevelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:334e37024a283e172f2c2e8a5adfcc6bb482def161588708c180dc2e12917070
BTC 1W bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:dbafa822ff5ba157729bda658eb05efa53ad969eb3ca5926f9028298de06dab7
BTC 1W bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1c8b2f12c42f6777c3e2078f1c3123532956910f647f0d260dc90e5c7be27cb0
BTC 1W bf25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:23bbf5aaff7b69b546a6d81a1b23520aeaa06a6f6e31e6cfaa97b3fb7fe029d1
BTC 1W rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0b936a847d25371e13d6e0065c77a7fb9e4d8e34e3080c2025d03a8af6014298
BTC 1W rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:7942ef0b36cb2f5d712eefaa0a788c121c7b6206bf3038edc7d8a1d1659371c2
BTC 1W rr25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:c7cbb3a2a75e235dda17ebe495540fa759bb43974a3ea8d7bfde2ea99afd35ad
BTC 2W atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3f0c98c1781728a9d2eccbb3900e291f3703f47fa1f2ad89b410b7880ea88a85
BTC 2W atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2221658d659e3c7975b36e9b46ca667b857dff5e3f414449faf559682010597a
BTC 2W atmIvlevelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:990c087fb20489e1ce95d54d382942c99e25332f5ef7eb603e8de315be1d9d17
BTC 2W bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8e49e320c8d67572f294ea6655a7d3ca46f08bf30fee9c6c3bc733c000788b3b
BTC 2W bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a4f3dd2162f4dfa0386ddaccf890690ea46eed57ba9c2e76f62197677ebed9a7
BTC 2W bf25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:71f4528ea36cd0fd72873e2d364e9c51d6ed0910d9a74f3cd158d6aaa870b6cf
BTC 2W rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:df38a471075ea311b40fea0f055f3d80dbad11cd1e2bed608c85045be60ca523
BTC 2W rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:106c22b983d93c427e5b762e88ae655d0c9c484b30545e27978458ed434decab
BTC 2W rr25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:86d5cbc788b4899e99eb251a4babd88167346d3603406d720b22593191564eb2
BTC 1M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:730a6b218d8ee5182333266c2e3b0ad61cd2947ea416ac30c2fd62c14b3df475
BTC 1M atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:cce17fc1de3ad7e6c657169156a738a57606123f61d1fabc3955f618d1650497
BTC 1M atmIvlevelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:c25be21b89c8c1fb37aa4b9d3588689c94db9ddad05446e72991b0d9c460b70c
BTC 1M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a7984697421c015717fef0710580a733d17cbeb52d83a72b762c330e87fc29b4
BTC 1M bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:61dea1c1e362ee3036a1612aad8e748529c14e533926a7fd02902d0e17296545
BTC 1M bf25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f91c3bc8f568175ababbe0d1e62af7bb412aeeea281ddd23531bb165fcd1e92f
BTC 1M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:48a1dc11f0a42ce19cc9a95175ae042860537513d9061e1a428eeb1b55f9d20b
BTC 1M rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ac1d897fbce9f13483752b1962d1209967e47bccb4ef06003718ceed2bb609b0
BTC 1M rr25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:bdb8b3425d92da02331c182e58dd9a1652259064138e7ee56128be226ea15ac2
BTC 3M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:946ac2c829a8d273cb580e4ae536751c6bc273ea252548fe2c81f5818f3c010a
BTC 3M atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:681a9e33163f2db748c8bcc37953c6214d332462eba0bcd5bfad72cc515fdd76
BTC 3M atmIvlevelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:cadf07f118781f393723f459bb603d700a8d5b5fba5e3c15660a5b0bba475942
BTC 3M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:7831da721a49fd6ecc7688b59bc42b8b2df592b37242a643b0151fe1a9d5c345
BTC 3M bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4d66ef0862a5f2ba7c30a5fd7cce499153d7c003041ac0d7b3d08b6ebcfa260b
BTC 3M bf25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0653e68750f941d64b9a2d49051d52cdafd5e0cb096740546525494e9b550a2b
BTC 3M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:133b1ba49dc92f0a062cd703fa7148744f0353a82b380c2f7673a25ddf2337c0
BTC 3M rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6dccfbd40fe9a9832a76a273350a6e8dc687826289f3c0038918d4e6210e1bd1
BTC 3M rr25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:130ef351843f9c0ca411a8052011e7fcdf72b5ab6bf00c0ca9af2c7e9c96b8bf
BTC 6M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4fef8f1447797fa3953995194a039ec9c0e0240cec9e7e5191eb1133f996f052
BTC 6M atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:688d32a244b41875ffec03a638be475e950a0eae40ff35f6c5d702ba0cc2f52a
BTC 6M atmIvlevelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2153a8c4ecbc94a3fb38e4ddb7898010a8c315140f7349bd165dde70925f0ab1
BTC 6M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:27de0d54dedec70016caca0d1ff529340e27d918fbf3a3c998aa6490ca67bc31
BTC 6M bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0b90ff74fcfcad898d3437b48e8fd10262e258fc64cda8d0711ed0024ac039cf
BTC 6M bf25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:acc5271e15801495594d753de603e1ede6799241f7b6cc327c51a31508118e36
BTC 6M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:bb79caa38fc2f7d47285dc34eadca190b7b7e93aff8db3e05e6d5eb89b145e97
BTC 6M rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e77f687a8af4381bc51817113ae72b58f2ab74dadf393faefaa2d0c07adb04c6
BTC 6M rr25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:df74711532a9be2de40cc80ae8c584d11dd04e63cca8e395cc0edd95186db349
BTC 9M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:96c217943db5e1c72dfc9e46e33c8cb7f221b7b439f07571bf018a4edc4445f2
BTC 9M atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:03e49c001c67e9d08d590c20e8163d47f70c114cdeeb31c2ce4cd92ef2a394ee
BTC 9M atmIvlevelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e2484c1e9f29fc70eb7454bc0e27bdf5471634047fc3dfe8c62443a1d96c6eef
BTC 9M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e0af151ec4f1a187fbc8355887fe546453f440baffa936a97072c68d132e8873
BTC 9M bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:776c019a568b8711b7e851be66944ccde05c428feecc2b3e57c5c31511db69f8
BTC 9M bf25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:051c0547acd37e378301472ba88527741d02ae0183ab79db79c98ecbc2a2c376
BTC 9M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:19e0e5eba89cc9fad256182c45c29016ac345249f1097bca5845a12e1f76f646
BTC 9M rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:52f2fa654e4c7648490666720e431fa6f23767334fadc0523b2573e77fc20c18
BTC 9M rr25levelFullHistory57 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-11-01
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3929750ead817d04ebd53f7930174de76e9791836c0e58bfde757f553f679c08
BTC 1Y atmIvmove30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvmoveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvlevelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 27NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 13NOV26.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
3NOV26-0.00970-0.00530-0.01980-0.03360+0.13130rotation towards puts, wing steepening
4NOV26+0.03620-0.02170-0.03960-0.00460-0.19010rotation towards puts, wing steepening
5NOV26+0.05910-0.04790+0.08520+0.07790-0.21620rotation towards puts, wing steepening
6NOV26+0.05920-0.04850+0.09530+0.08020-0.19550rotation towards puts, wing steepening
13NOV26+0.05520-0.03040+0.20330+0.13890-0.22480rotation towards calls, wing steepening
20NOV26+0.04200-0.02770+0.22040+0.13810-0.16360wing steepening
27NOV26+0.04320-0.02230+0.25290+0.17800-0.17550mixed reshaping
25DEC26-0.02990+0.01500+0.03070+0.00040+0.10220rotation towards calls
29JAN27-0.00860+0.00320+0.08350+0.05810+0.01940parallel shift lower
26MAR27-0.00970+0.00080+0.08160+0.07040+0.02080parallel shift higher
25JUN27-0.04100+0.01560+0.03520-0.00140+0.09440parallel shift higher
24SEP27-0.03550+0.00500+0.05830+0.03740+0.08900parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma3NOV26, 0.000344 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay3NOV26, -382.98209 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001852 delta / vol pt
Highest Vega24SEP27, 299.458034 USD / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.26353 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC35.15%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 02 Nov 2026, 17:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
02 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot
01 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

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