01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The altcoin complex showed a conspicuous split: AVAX led the 24-hour spot comparison while HYPE lagged, and one-week ATM IV changes ranged from AVAX’s increase to XRP’s decline.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -2.82 points to +2.32 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 65.82%.
TRX had the richest call skew at +3.29 points; HYPE had the richest put skew at +1.73 points.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at +47.19 vol pts.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 65.82 | AVAX · 58.63 · up 1 | XRP · 53.82 · down 1 | TRX · 18.63 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · 2.32 | HYPE · -0.70 | TRX · -1.75 | XRP · -2.82 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Most call-rich 1W RR25 | TRX · 3.29 · up 3 | AVAX · 2.23 · up 1 | XRP · 1.98 · down 1 | HYPE · 1.73 · down 3 |
| Most put-rich 1W RR25 | HYPE · 1.73 · up 3 | XRP · 1.98 · up 1 | AVAX · 2.23 · down 1 | TRX · 3.29 · down 3 |
| 1Y minus 1W curve slope | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| 24h spot performance | AVAX · 5.36 | XRP · -0.71 | TRX · -2.94 | HYPE · -3.13 |
1W ATM IV change
+3.54 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-37.59 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+1.19 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -0.71% | $1.40 | 53.82% | -2.82 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.98 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -3.13% | $85.49 | 65.82% | -0.70 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.73 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +5.36% | $8.06 | 58.63% | +2.32 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.23 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -2.94% | $0.33 | 18.63% | -1.75 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.29 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
XRP: Canonical XRP index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045
HYPE: Canonical HYPE index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045
AVAX: Canonical AVAX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045
TRX: Canonical TRX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 53.82% / -2.82 | 53.93% / -1.38 | 52.39% / -3.03 |
| HYPE | 65.82% / -0.70 | 64.34% / -1.33 | 63.35% / -1.26 |
| AVAX | 58.63% / +2.32 | 56.85% / +1.30 | 55.19% / +0.42 |
| TRX | 18.63% / -1.75 | 17.68% / +0.40 | 18.88% / +0.79 |
05 · Catalyst check
News context unavailable.
News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. The forward proxy is retained only as a fallback spot comparison and is not a consolidated spot index.