01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The altcoin complex showed a conspicuous split: AVAX led the 24-hour spot comparison while HYPE lagged, and one-week ATM IV changes ranged from AVAX’s increase to XRP’s decline.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 47.19 vol points; absolute gap change +1.05 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 5.14 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
AVAX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.54 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -2.82 points to +2.32 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 65.82%.
TRX had the highest 1W RR25 at +3.29 points, call-rich; HYPE had the lowest at +1.73 points, call-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 47.19 vol pts.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 65.82 | AVAX · 58.63 · up 1 | XRP · 53.82 · down 1 | TRX · 18.63 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · 2.32 | HYPE · -0.70 | TRX · -1.75 | XRP · -2.82 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | TRX · 3.29 · up 3 | AVAX · 2.23 · up 1 | XRP · 1.98 · down 1 | HYPE · 1.73 · down 3 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | HYPE · 1.73 · up 3 | XRP · 1.98 · up 1 | AVAX · 2.23 · down 1 | TRX · 3.29 · down 3 |
| 24h forward-proxy return | AVAX · 5.36 | XRP · -0.71 | TRX · -2.94 | HYPE · -3.13 |
1W ATM IV change
+3.54 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-37.59 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+1.19 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | $1.40 | 53.82% | -2.82 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.98 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 07 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | Unavailable | $85.49 | 65.82% | -0.70 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.73 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 07 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | Unavailable | $8.06 | 58.63% | +2.32 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.23 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 07 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | Unavailable | $0.33 | 18.63% | -1.75 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.29 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 07 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 53.82% / -2.82 | 53.93% / -1.38 | 52.39% / -3.03 |
| HYPE | 65.82% / -0.70 | 64.34% / -1.33 | 63.35% / -1.26 |
| AVAX | 58.63% / +2.32 | 56.85% / +1.30 | 55.19% / +0.42 |
| TRX | 18.63% / -1.75 | 17.68% / +0.40 | 18.88% / +0.79 |
05 · Catalyst check
News context unavailable.
News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Original report summary
Altcoin options are separating alongside an 8.49-percentage-point gap in 24-hour spot performance between AVAX and HYPE. AVAX’s one-week ATM IV rose 2.32 volatility points while XRP’s fell 2.82 points, leaving a 5.14-point change range. HYPE nevertheless retained the highest one-week implied-volatility level, and TRX the lowest.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 53.82% · Δ -2.82 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.82% · Δ -0.70 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 58.63% · Δ +2.32 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 18.63% · Δ -1.75 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 1.98 vol pts · Δ -1.45 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 1.73 vol pts · Δ -1.96 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 2.23 vol pts · Δ -0.07 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 3.29 vol pts · Δ +7.74 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 5.14 vol pts (AVAX Δ +2.32 versus XRP Δ -2.82 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 53.82% · Δ -2.82 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.82% · Δ -0.70 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 58.63% · Δ +2.32 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 18.63% · Δ -1.75 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 1.98 vol pts · Δ -1.45 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 1.73 vol pts · Δ -1.96 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 2.23 vol pts · Δ -0.07 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 3.29 vol pts · Δ +7.74 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.18 vol pts · Δ +0.35 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 3.87 vol pts · Δ -0.48 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 4.05 vol pts · Δ -0.23 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 2.53 vol pts · Δ +0.28 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP IV versus RV; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 7 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC; HYPE 7 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC; AVAX 7 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC; TRX 7 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 07 Sept 2026, 16:54:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical XRP index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045 Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 07 Sept 2026, 16:54:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical HYPE index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045 Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 07 Sept 2026, 16:54:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical AVAX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045 Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 07 Sept 2026, 16:54:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical TRX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 returns, found 10045 Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.