01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The altcoin complex recorded a 16.16-volatility-point range in one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility between TRX and XRP. TRX was 7.19 volatility points above its seven-day realised volatility, while XRP was 8.97 volatility points below its seven-day realised volatility. HYPE held the highest one-week ATM IV level at 64.57%, and TRX held the lowest one-week ATM IV level at 21.98%. The HYPE–TRX one-week ATM IV level spread contracted by 4.61 volatility points to 42.59 volatility points.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 42.59 vol points; absolute gap change -4.61 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.61 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.52 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -1.22 points to +3.39 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 64.57%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +3.24 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at +0.05 points, marginally call-rich, close to neutral.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +7.19 points and XRP had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -8.97 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 42.59 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +7.19 vol points; XRP has the lowest at -8.97 vol points. The range between these spreads is 16.16 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 64.57 | AVAX · 57.65 | XRP · 53.20 | TRX · 21.98 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | TRX · 3.39 | XRP · -0.01 | AVAX · -0.24 | HYPE · -1.22 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 7.19 | HYPE · 2.98 | AVAX · 2.03 | XRP · -8.97 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 3.24 · up 2 | AVAX · 2.44 | HYPE · 2.38 · up 1 | TRX · 0.05 · down 3 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · 0.05 · up 3 | HYPE · 2.38 · down 1 | AVAX · 2.44 | XRP · 3.24 · down 2 |
| 24h forward-proxy return | TRX · 3.03 | XRP · 2.88 | AVAX · -0.50 | HYPE · -1.92 |
1W ATM IV change
+3.52 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-33.44 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-2.36 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-11.48 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +2.67% | $1.43 | 53.20% | -0.01 vol pts | 62.17% | -8.97 vol pts | 0.86× | Unavailable | +3.24 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 08 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -1.85% | $83.74 | 64.57% | -1.22 vol pts | 61.59% | +2.98 vol pts | 1.05× | Unavailable | +2.38 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 08 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -0.46% | $8.03 | 57.65% | -0.24 vol pts | 55.62% | +2.03 vol pts | 1.04× | Unavailable | +2.44 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 08 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +1.53% | $0.34 | 21.98% | +3.39 vol pts | 14.79% | +7.19 vol pts | 1.49× | Unavailable | +0.05 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 08 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 53.20% / -0.01 | 52.07% / -2.02 | 50.42% / -1.93 |
| HYPE | 64.57% / -1.22 | 63.86% / -0.25 | 62.89% / -0.85 |
| AVAX | 57.65% / -0.24 | 56.08% / -0.64 | 55.11% / -0.31 |
| TRX | 21.98% / +3.39 | 22.15% / +4.48 | 22.54% / +3.55 |
05 · Catalyst check
News context unavailable.
News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: e037543988ec3290d7b9eb903b81336a555cb076a9250af6f36b0b5e8e6d39dc.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Original report summary
TRX’s one-week ATM IV rose 3.39 volatility points to 21.98% over the observation window. Derivasys data show TRX’s one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility at 7.19 volatility points, versus XRP’s equivalent measure at negative 8.97 points; the cross-sectional range was 16.16 volatility points. HYPE’s one-week ATM IV was 64.57%, compared with TRX’s one-week ATM IV of 21.98%. The one-week ATM IV level gap between HYPE and TRX narrowed 4.61 volatility points to 42.59 volatility points.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 53.20% · Δ -0.01 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 64.57% · Δ -1.22 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 57.65% · Δ -0.24 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 21.98% · Δ +3.39 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 3.24 vol pts · Δ +1.31 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 2.38 vol pts · Δ +0.75 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 2.44 vol pts · Δ +0.06 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 0.05 vol pts · Δ -3.23 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 4.61 vol pts (TRX Δ +3.39 versus HYPE Δ -1.22 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 53.20% · Δ -0.01 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 64.57% · Δ -1.22 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 57.65% · Δ -0.24 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 21.98% · Δ +3.39 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 3.24 vol pts · Δ +1.31 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 2.38 vol pts · Δ +0.75 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 2.44 vol pts · Δ +0.06 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 0.05 vol pts · Δ -3.23 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 2.72 vol pts · Δ -0.25 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 4.50 vol pts · Δ +0.51 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.68 vol pts · Δ -0.32 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 1.75 vol pts · Δ -0.79 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP IV versus RV; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 8 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 8 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 8 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 8 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 08 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 08 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 08 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 08 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.