01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
TRX held the highest one-week implied-versus-realised premium at 4.88 volatility points, while XRP registered the lowest reading at minus 4.16 points. The resulting 9.04-point range was the defining relative-value feature across the covered altcoin options complex.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 45.63 vol points; absolute gap change +4.28 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.60 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.33 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -2.65 points to +1.95 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 64.73%.
AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +2.02 points, call-rich; HYPE had the lowest at -2.51 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +4.88 points and XRP had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -4.16 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 45.63 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +4.88 vol points; XRP has the lowest at -4.16 vol points. The range between these spreads is 9.04 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 64.73 | AVAX · 58.45 | XRP · 53.89 | TRX · 19.10 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · 1.95 | HYPE · 1.63 | XRP · -0.27 | TRX · -2.65 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 4.88 | HYPE · 1.54 | AVAX · 1.42 | XRP · -4.16 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | AVAX · 2.02 | TRX · -1.01 · up 2 | XRP · -1.94 | HYPE · -2.51 · down 2 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | HYPE · -2.51 · up 2 | XRP · -1.94 | TRX · -1.01 · down 2 | AVAX · 2.02 |
| 24h spot-index return | TRX · -0.41 | AVAX · -5.05 | XRP · -5.11 | HYPE · -7.08 |
1W ATM IV change
-3.33 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-37.07 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+3.50 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-5.64 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -5.11% | $1.35 | 53.89% | -0.27 vol pts | 58.05% | -4.16 vol pts | 0.93× | Unavailable | -1.94 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 10 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -7.08% | $79.34 | 64.73% | +1.63 vol pts | 63.19% | +1.54 vol pts | 1.02× | Unavailable | -2.51 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 10 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -5.05% | $7.54 | 58.45% | +1.95 vol pts | 57.03% | +1.42 vol pts | 1.02× | Unavailable | +2.02 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 10 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.41% | $0.34 | 19.10% | -2.65 vol pts | 14.22% | +4.88 vol pts | 1.34× | Unavailable | -1.01 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 10 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 53.89% / -0.27 | 52.43% / +0.79 | 51.55% / +1.04 |
| HYPE | 64.73% / +1.63 | 63.19% / +0.14 | 62.36% / -1.79 |
| AVAX | 58.45% / +1.95 | 56.41% / +0.45 | 55.18% / +0.13 |
| TRX | 19.10% / -2.65 | 21.35% / -0.77 | 22.12% / -0.44 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 3d224cc6d39d60d28979271901ad3a95223fcd92906118297ede196eacf4c073.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Original report summary
Altcoin options showed a pronounced one-week valuation split at the 16:30 UTC cutoff: TRX implied volatility stood 4.88 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while XRP sat 4.16 points below it. That 9.04-point gap leaves TRX relatively rich and XRP relatively cheap on this measure, according to DerivaSys data. The comparison is cross-sectional rather than a statement about a catalyst.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 53.89% · Δ -0.27 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 64.73% · Δ +1.63 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 58.45% · Δ +1.95 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 19.10% · Δ -2.65 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 -1.94 vol pts · Δ -4.46 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 -2.51 vol pts · Δ -5.18 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 2.02 vol pts · Δ -0.67 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -1.01 vol pts · Δ -0.60 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 4.60 vol pts (AVAX Δ +1.95 versus TRX Δ -2.65 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 53.89% · Δ -0.27 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 64.73% · Δ +1.63 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 58.45% · Δ +1.95 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 19.10% · Δ -2.65 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 -1.94 vol pts · Δ -4.46 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 -2.51 vol pts · Δ -5.18 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 2.02 vol pts · Δ -0.67 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -1.01 vol pts · Δ -0.60 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.04 vol pts · Δ +0.18 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 4.05 vol pts · Δ -0.46 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.58 vol pts · Δ +0.01 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 1.63 vol pts · Δ -0.24 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP IV versus RV; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 10 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 10 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 10 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 10 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 10 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 10 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 10 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 10 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.