01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
TRX screens richest and AVAX cheapest on one-week implied volatility versus seven-day realised volatility, creating a 10.36-volatility-point cross-sectional range.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 43.80 vol points; absolute gap change -1.82 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 6.33 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
XRP stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.58 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -2.91 points to +3.42 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 63.65%.
AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +4.51 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -5.51 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +5.59 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -4.77 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 43.80 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +5.59 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -4.77 vol points. The range between these spreads is 10.36 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 63.65 | XRP · 57.35 · up 1 | AVAX · 55.53 · down 1 | TRX · 19.85 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 3.42 | TRX · 0.75 | HYPE · -1.07 | AVAX · -2.91 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 5.59 | XRP · 2.17 | HYPE · 0.14 | AVAX · -4.77 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | AVAX · 4.51 | XRP · 3.89 · up 1 | HYPE · 2.29 · up 1 | TRX · -5.51 · down 2 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -5.51 · up 2 | HYPE · 2.29 · down 1 | XRP · 3.89 · down 1 | AVAX · 4.51 |
| 24h spot-index return | HYPE · 3.10 | XRP · 2.20 | AVAX · 0.33 | TRX · -0.81 |
1W ATM IV change
+3.58 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-36.59 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-8.60 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-5.92 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +2.20% | $1.38 | 57.35% | +3.42 vol pts | 55.18% | +2.17 vol pts | 1.04× | Unavailable | +3.89 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 11 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +3.10% | $81.80 | 63.65% | -1.07 vol pts | 63.51% | +0.14 vol pts | 1.00× | Unavailable | +2.29 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 11 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +0.33% | $7.59 | 55.53% | -2.91 vol pts | 60.30% | -4.77 vol pts | 0.92× | Unavailable | +4.51 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 11 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.81% | $0.34 | 19.85% | +0.75 vol pts | 14.26% | +5.59 vol pts | 1.39× | Unavailable | -5.51 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 11 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 57.35% / +3.42 | 53.57% / +1.18 | 51.91% / +0.18 |
| HYPE | 63.65% / -1.07 | 61.76% / -1.43 | 61.35% / -1.01 |
| AVAX | 55.53% / -2.91 | 56.27% / -0.14 | 55.52% / +0.34 |
| TRX | 19.85% / +0.75 | 17.55% / -3.80 | 19.00% / -3.12 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 88bc8b1d4e8c4417c329b39344ba51dbc4e052b18b3b36228932e5ebbbfe80d6.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Original report summary
At the cutoff, Derivasys data show TRX and AVAX one-week options at a 10.36-volatility-point implied-versus-realised range. TRX one-week ATM implied volatility was 5.59 volatility points above TRX seven-day realised volatility, while AVAX one-week ATM implied volatility was 4.77 volatility points below AVAX seven-day realised volatility. The comparison is a level at the cutoff, not a measured daily widening.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 57.35% · Δ +3.42 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 63.65% · Δ -1.07 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 55.53% · Δ -2.91 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 19.85% · Δ +0.75 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 3.89 vol pts · Δ +5.84 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 2.29 vol pts · Δ +4.80 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 4.51 vol pts · Δ +2.49 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -5.51 vol pts · Δ -4.50 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 6.33 vol pts (XRP Δ +3.42 versus AVAX Δ -2.91 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 57.35% · Δ +3.42 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 63.65% · Δ -1.07 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 55.53% · Δ -2.91 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 19.85% · Δ +0.75 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 3.89 vol pts · Δ +5.84 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 2.29 vol pts · Δ +4.80 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 4.51 vol pts · Δ +2.49 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -5.51 vol pts · Δ -4.50 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.87 vol pts · Δ +0.82 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 3.31 vol pts · Δ -0.74 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.73 vol pts · Δ +0.15 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 2.65 vol pts · Δ +1.02 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP IV versus RV; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 11 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; HYPE 11 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; AVAX 11 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; TRX 11 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 11 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 11 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 11 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 11 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.