01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
TRX one-week ATM IV was 6.35 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility at the cutoff, whereas AVAX was 6.10 points below. That left a 12.45-point implied-versus-realised range across the altcoin complex.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 42.22 vol points; absolute gap change -1.58 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 7.96 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
XRP stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 6.22 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -6.11 points to +1.85 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 63.92%.
AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +3.09 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -0.83 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +6.35 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -6.10 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 42.22 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +6.35 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -6.10 vol points. The range between these spreads is 12.45 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 63.92 | AVAX · 55.47 · up 1 | XRP · 51.24 · down 1 | TRX · 21.70 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | TRX · 1.85 | HYPE · 0.27 | AVAX · -0.06 | XRP · -6.11 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 6.35 | HYPE · -1.13 | XRP · -4.64 | AVAX · -6.10 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | AVAX · 3.09 | XRP · 2.59 | HYPE · 1.49 | TRX · -0.83 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -0.83 | HYPE · 1.49 | XRP · 2.59 | AVAX · 3.09 |
| 24h spot-index return | TRX · 1.36 | XRP · -0.36 | HYPE · -1.68 | AVAX · -1.79 |
1W ATM IV change
-6.22 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-31.66 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-2.87 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+9.23 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -0.36% | $1.37 | 51.24% | -6.11 vol pts | 55.88% | -4.64 vol pts | 0.92× | Unavailable | +2.59 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -1.68% | $80.22 | 63.92% | +0.27 vol pts | 65.05% | -1.13 vol pts | 0.98× | Unavailable | +1.49 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -1.79% | $7.43 | 55.47% | -0.06 vol pts | 61.57% | -6.10 vol pts | 0.90× | Unavailable | +3.09 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +1.36% | $0.34 | 21.70% | +1.85 vol pts | 15.35% | +6.35 vol pts | 1.41× | Unavailable | -0.83 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 51.24% / -6.11 | 52.18% / -1.39 | 51.89% / -0.02 |
| HYPE | 63.92% / +0.27 | 62.19% / +0.43 | 61.71% / +0.36 |
| AVAX | 55.47% / -0.06 | 56.02% / -0.25 | 55.75% / +0.23 |
| TRX | 21.70% / +1.85 | 22.23% / +4.68 | 22.52% / +3.52 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 619a3420466f18971597023cf3edc82366d2e6d60246dca64efb225d5e68d7a2.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin one-week options show their clearest split in implied volatility versus realised volatility: TRX stands 6.35 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility, while AVAX stands 6.10 points below it. The 12.45-point range separates relative pricing across the complex, rather than recording a daily widening or narrowing.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 51.24% · Δ -6.11 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 63.92% · Δ +0.27 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 55.47% · Δ -0.06 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 21.70% · Δ +1.85 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 2.59 vol pts · Δ -1.30 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 1.49 vol pts · Δ -0.80 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 3.09 vol pts · Δ -1.42 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -0.83 vol pts · Δ +4.68 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 7.96 vol pts (TRX Δ +1.85 versus XRP Δ -6.11 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 51.24% · Δ -6.11 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 63.92% · Δ +0.27 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 55.47% · Δ -0.06 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 21.70% · Δ +1.85 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 2.59 vol pts · Δ -1.30 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 1.49 vol pts · Δ -0.80 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 3.09 vol pts · Δ -1.42 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -0.83 vol pts · Δ +4.68 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; HYPE 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; AVAX 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC; TRX 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 12 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 12 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 12 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 12 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.