01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
TRX one-week ATM IV was 6.35 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility at the cutoff, whereas AVAX was 6.10 points below. That left a 12.45-point implied-versus-realised range across the altcoin complex.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -6.11 points to +1.85 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 63.92%.
AVAX had the richest call skew at +3.09 points; TRX had the richest put skew at -0.83 points.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX was richest at +6.35 points and AVAX was cheapest at -6.10 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at +42.22 vol pts.
TRX screens richest and AVAX cheapest on one-week implied volatility versus seven-day realised volatility, with a 12.45-point cross-sectional range.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 63.92 | AVAX · 55.47 · up 1 | XRP · 51.24 · down 1 | TRX · 21.70 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | TRX · 1.85 | HYPE · 0.27 | AVAX · -0.06 | XRP · -6.11 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 6.35 | HYPE · -1.13 | XRP · -4.64 | AVAX · -6.10 |
| Most call-rich 1W RR25 | AVAX · 3.09 | XRP · 2.59 | HYPE · 1.49 | TRX · -0.83 |
| Most put-rich 1W RR25 | TRX · -0.83 | HYPE · 1.49 | XRP · 2.59 | AVAX · 3.09 |
| 1Y minus 1W curve slope | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| 24h spot performance | TRX · 1.36 | XRP · -0.36 | HYPE · -1.68 | AVAX · -1.79 |
1W ATM IV change
-6.22 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-31.66 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-2.87 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+9.23 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -0.36% | $1.37 | 51.24% | -6.11 vol pts | 55.88% | -4.64 vol pts | 0.92× | Unavailable | +2.59 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -1.68% | $80.22 | 63.92% | +0.27 vol pts | 65.05% | -1.13 vol pts | 0.98× | Unavailable | +1.49 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -1.79% | $7.43 | 55.47% | -0.06 vol pts | 61.57% | -6.10 vol pts | 0.90× | Unavailable | +3.09 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +1.36% | $0.34 | 21.70% | +1.85 vol pts | 15.35% | +6.35 vol pts | 1.41× | Unavailable | -0.83 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 51.24% / -6.11 | 52.18% / -1.39 | 51.89% / -0.02 |
| HYPE | 63.92% / +0.27 | 62.19% / +0.43 | 61.71% / +0.36 |
| AVAX | 55.47% / -0.06 | 56.02% / -0.25 | 55.75% / +0.23 |
| TRX | 21.70% / +1.85 | 22.23% / +4.68 | 22.52% / +3.52 |
05 · Catalyst check
No relevant catalyst identified.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. The forward proxy is retained only as a fallback spot comparison and is not a consolidated spot index.