01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
Derivasys data place TRX at the rich end and AVAX at the cheap end of the one-week at-the-money implied-volatility-versus-seven-day-realised-volatility comparison. TRX one-week at-the-money implied volatility was 4.82 volatility points above TRX seven-day realised volatility, whereas AVAX one-week at-the-money implied volatility was 1.96 volatility points below AVAX seven-day realised volatility. The resulting 6.78-point range was the defining relative-value feature across the altcoin complex.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -1.68 points to +3.21 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 66.37%.
AVAX had the richest call skew at +2.98 points; HYPE had the richest put skew at +0.19 points.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX was richest at +4.82 points and AVAX was cheapest at -1.96 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at +46.35 vol pts.
TRX screens richest and AVAX cheapest on one-week implied volatility versus seven-day realised volatility, with a 6.78-point cross-sectional range.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 66.37 | AVAX · 58.69 | XRP · 54.38 | TRX · 20.02 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · 3.21 | XRP · 3.14 | HYPE · 2.44 | TRX · -1.68 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 4.82 | HYPE · 3.06 | XRP · -0.20 | AVAX · -1.96 |
| Most call-rich 1W RR25 | AVAX · 2.98 | XRP · 1.03 | TRX · 0.34 · up 1 | HYPE · 0.19 · down 1 |
| Most put-rich 1W RR25 | HYPE · 0.19 · up 1 | TRX · 0.34 · down 1 | XRP · 1.03 | AVAX · 2.98 |
| 1Y minus 1W curve slope | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| 24h spot performance | TRX · 0.29 | AVAX · -0.62 | XRP · -1.63 | HYPE · -2.24 |
1W ATM IV change
-4.47 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-36.52 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+2.29 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+3.39 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -1.63% | $1.35 | 54.38% | +3.14 vol pts | 54.58% | -0.20 vol pts | 1.00× | Unavailable | +1.03 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -2.24% | $78.47 | 66.37% | +2.44 vol pts | 63.31% | +3.06 vol pts | 1.05× | Unavailable | +0.19 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -0.62% | $7.38 | 58.69% | +3.21 vol pts | 60.65% | -1.96 vol pts | 0.97× | Unavailable | +2.98 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +0.29% | $0.34 | 20.02% | -1.68 vol pts | 15.20% | +4.82 vol pts | 1.32× | Unavailable | +0.34 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 54.38% / +3.14 | 52.83% / +0.65 | 52.34% / +0.45 |
| HYPE | 66.37% / +2.44 | 62.95% / +0.76 | 59.13% / -2.58 |
| AVAX | 58.69% / +3.21 | 56.88% / +0.86 | 56.32% / +0.57 |
| TRX | 20.02% / -1.68 | 21.56% / -0.67 | 22.25% / -0.27 |
05 · Catalyst check
No relevant catalyst identified.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. The forward proxy is retained only as a fallback spot comparison and is not a consolidated spot index.