01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
Derivasys data place TRX at the rich end and AVAX at the cheap end of the one-week at-the-money implied-volatility-versus-seven-day-realised-volatility comparison. TRX one-week at-the-money implied volatility was 4.82 volatility points above TRX seven-day realised volatility, whereas AVAX one-week at-the-money implied volatility was 1.96 volatility points below AVAX seven-day realised volatility. The resulting 6.78-point range was the defining relative-value feature across the altcoin complex.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 46.35 vol points; absolute gap change +4.12 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.89 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 4.47 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -1.68 points to +3.21 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 66.37%.
AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +2.98 points, call-rich; HYPE had the lowest at +0.19 points, call-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +4.82 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -1.96 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 46.35 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +4.82 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -1.96 vol points. The range between these spreads is 6.78 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 66.37 | AVAX · 58.69 | XRP · 54.38 | TRX · 20.02 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · 3.21 | XRP · 3.14 | HYPE · 2.44 | TRX · -1.68 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 4.82 | HYPE · 3.06 | XRP · -0.20 | AVAX · -1.96 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | AVAX · 2.98 | XRP · 1.03 | TRX · 0.34 · up 1 | HYPE · 0.19 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | HYPE · 0.19 · up 1 | TRX · 0.34 · down 1 | XRP · 1.03 | AVAX · 2.98 |
| 24h spot-index return | TRX · 0.29 | AVAX · -0.62 | XRP · -1.63 | HYPE · -2.24 |
1W ATM IV change
-4.47 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-36.52 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+2.29 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+3.39 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -1.63% | $1.35 | 54.38% | +3.14 vol pts | 54.58% | -0.20 vol pts | 1.00× | Unavailable | +1.03 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -2.24% | $78.47 | 66.37% | +2.44 vol pts | 63.31% | +3.06 vol pts | 1.05× | Unavailable | +0.19 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -0.62% | $7.38 | 58.69% | +3.21 vol pts | 60.65% | -1.96 vol pts | 0.97× | Unavailable | +2.98 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +0.29% | $0.34 | 20.02% | -1.68 vol pts | 15.20% | +4.82 vol pts | 1.32× | Unavailable | +0.34 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 54.38% / +3.14 | 52.83% / +0.65 | 52.34% / +0.45 |
| HYPE | 66.37% / +2.44 | 62.95% / +0.76 | 59.13% / -2.58 |
| AVAX | 58.69% / +3.21 | 56.88% / +0.86 | 56.32% / +0.57 |
| TRX | 20.02% / -1.68 | 21.56% / -0.67 | 22.25% / -0.27 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 4c7a1e3433cc1ed0b69e2f8cf991d886f1c10f2619b45c4e7efe444efbb30d2d.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, Derivasys data showed TRX one-week at-the-money implied volatility 4.82 volatility points above TRX seven-day realised volatility, while AVAX one-week at-the-money implied volatility was 1.96 points below AVAX seven-day realised volatility. The TRX-versus-AVAX one-week implied-versus-realised range was 6.78 volatility points. AVAX one-week at-the-money implied volatility rose 3.21 volatility points to 58.69%, while TRX one-week at-the-money implied volatility fell 1.68 volatility points to 20.02%. Implied volatility reflects the market's pricing of expected movement; realised volatility measures movement already observed. Over the 24 hours to the cutoff, AVAX spot-index return was -0.62% and TRX spot-index return was 0.29%.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 54.38% · Δ +3.14 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 66.37% · Δ +2.44 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 58.69% · Δ +3.21 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 20.02% · Δ -1.68 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 1.03 vol pts · Δ -1.56 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 0.19 vol pts · Δ -1.29 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 2.98 vol pts · Δ -0.11 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 0.34 vol pts · Δ +1.17 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 4.89 vol pts (AVAX Δ +3.21 versus TRX Δ -1.68 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 54.38% · Δ +3.14 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 66.37% · Δ +2.44 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 58.69% · Δ +3.21 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 20.02% · Δ -1.68 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 1.03 vol pts · Δ -1.56 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 0.19 vol pts · Δ -1.29 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 2.98 vol pts · Δ -0.11 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 0.34 vol pts · Δ +1.17 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 13 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 13 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 13 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 13 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.