01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
XRP’s one-week ATM IV rose 5.63 volatility points to 60.01%, creating a 4.19-point gap to TRX’s 1.44-point increase. The reading points to uneven front-end repricing across the altcoin complex rather than a uniform move.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 47.19 vol points; absolute gap change +0.84 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.19 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
XRP stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.69 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from +1.44 points to +5.63 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 68.65%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +3.99 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -0.66 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +6.11 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at +2.07 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 47.19 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +6.11 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at +2.07 vol points. The range between these spreads is 4.04 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 68.65 | AVAX · 60.28 | XRP · 60.01 | TRX · 21.46 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 5.63 | HYPE · 2.28 | AVAX · 1.59 | TRX · 1.44 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 6.11 | XRP · 3.91 | AVAX · 2.07 | — |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 3.99 · up 1 | HYPE · 3.49 · up 2 | AVAX · 2.01 · down 2 | TRX · -0.66 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -0.66 · up 1 | AVAX · 2.01 · up 2 | HYPE · 3.49 · down 2 | XRP · 3.99 · down 1 |
| 24h spot-index return | XRP · 4.84 | AVAX · 1.83 | TRX · -0.15 | — |
1W ATM IV change
+3.69 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-38.68 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-3.41 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+2.20 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +4.84% | $1.41 | 60.01% | +5.63 vol pts | 56.10% | +3.91 vol pts | 1.07× | Unavailable | +3.99 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 14 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | Unavailable | $80.55 | 68.65% | +2.28 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.49 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 14 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +1.83% | $7.51 | 60.28% | +1.59 vol pts | 58.21% | +2.07 vol pts | 1.04× | Unavailable | +2.01 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 14 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.15% | $0.34 | 21.46% | +1.44 vol pts | 15.35% | +6.11 vol pts | 1.40× | Unavailable | -0.66 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 14 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 60.01% / +5.63 | 55.89% / +3.06 | 54.03% / +1.69 |
| HYPE | 68.65% / +2.28 | 63.75% / +0.80 | 62.95% / +3.82 |
| AVAX | 60.28% / +1.59 | 58.12% / +1.24 | 57.44% / +1.12 |
| TRX | 21.46% / +1.44 | 22.22% / +0.66 | 22.60% / +0.35 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: e38df677894f695145e1a11fde8d69eea6b27dc9505852ccccf79fdbce8ca3fc.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin one-week ATM IV rose across the complex, but the adjustment was far from uniform: XRP increased 5.63 volatility points to 60.01%, versus a 1.44-point rise to 21.46% for TRX. That 4.19-point change range makes XRP the clear front-end leader, while HYPE retained the highest one-week ATM IV level at 68.65%.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 60.01% · Δ +5.63 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 68.65% · Δ +2.28 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 60.28% · Δ +1.59 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 21.46% · Δ +1.44 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 3.99 vol pts · Δ +2.96 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 3.49 vol pts · Δ +3.30 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 2.01 vol pts · Δ -0.97 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -0.66 vol pts · Δ -1.00 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 4.19 vol pts (XRP Δ +5.63 versus TRX Δ +1.44 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 60.01% · Δ +5.63 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 68.65% · Δ +2.28 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 60.28% · Δ +1.59 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 21.46% · Δ +1.44 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 3.99 vol pts · Δ +2.96 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 3.49 vol pts · Δ +3.30 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 2.01 vol pts · Δ -0.97 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -0.66 vol pts · Δ -1.00 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 14 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 14 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 14 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 14 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 14 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 14 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical HYPE index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 one-minute returns, found 1438 (99.8611% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 14 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 14 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.