01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
Altcoin options ended the window with a wider one-week implied-volatility divide: HYPE one-week ATM IV was 70.88%, versus TRX one-week ATM IV at 19.21%. The 51.67-point level spread was 3.92 points wider than at the prior snapshot, with TRX accounting for the largest absolute one-week ATM IV move.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 51.67 vol points; absolute gap change +3.92 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.29 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.92 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -3.22 points to +1.07 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 70.88%.
TRX had the highest 1W RR25 at +0.58 points, call-rich; XRP had the lowest at -0.77 points, put-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 51.67 vol pts.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 70.88 | XRP · 66.43 | AVAX · 60.63 | TRX · 19.21 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 1.07 | HYPE · 0.70 | AVAX · -1.31 | TRX · -3.22 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | TRX · 0.58 · up 3 | AVAX · 0.39 · up 1 | HYPE · -0.40 · down 1 | XRP · -0.77 · down 3 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | XRP · -0.77 · up 3 | HYPE · -0.40 · up 1 | AVAX · 0.39 · down 1 | TRX · 0.58 · down 3 |
1W ATM IV change
-2.92 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-44.32 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-0.77 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | $1.29 | 66.43% | +1.07 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | -0.77 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | Unavailable | $77.24 | 70.88% | +0.70 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | -0.40 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | Unavailable | $7.29 | 60.63% | -1.31 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +0.39 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | Unavailable | $0.33 | 19.21% | -3.22 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +0.58 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 66.43% / +1.07 | 57.70% / -2.84 | 55.64% / -2.23 |
| HYPE | 70.88% / +0.70 | 65.79% / +1.04 | 63.68% / +0.09 |
| AVAX | 60.63% / -1.31 | 58.22% / -0.70 | 57.90% / -0.11 |
| TRX | 19.21% / -3.22 | 19.44% / -2.98 | 21.01% / -1.55 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: a8b6f8e49bbab1cb996a5ec15cc51822eb02e25e95be816850d6ec885909552d.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin one-week ATM IV dispersion widened to 51.67 volatility points, with HYPE one-week ATM IV at 70.88% and TRX one-week ATM IV at 19.21%. The gap widened by 3.92 volatility points as TRX one-week ATM IV fell 3.22 volatility points, while HYPE remained the complex’s highest-volatility asset. One-week RR25 dispersion, by contrast, compressed to 1.35 volatility points, bringing relative call-versus-put volatility closer together.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 66.43% · Δ +1.07 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 70.88% · Δ +0.70 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 60.63% · Δ -1.31 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 19.21% · Δ -3.22 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 -0.77 vol pts · Δ -6.15 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 -0.40 vol pts · Δ -5.72 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 0.39 vol pts · Δ -1.12 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 0.58 vol pts · Δ +1.11 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 4.29 vol pts (XRP Δ +1.07 versus TRX Δ -3.22 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 66.43% · Δ +1.07 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 70.88% · Δ +0.70 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 60.63% · Δ -1.31 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 19.21% · Δ -3.22 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 -0.77 vol pts · Δ -6.15 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 -0.40 vol pts · Δ -5.72 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 0.39 vol pts · Δ -1.12 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 0.58 vol pts · Δ +1.11 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC; HYPE 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC; AVAX 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC; TRX 15 Sept 2026, 21:01 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 15 Sept 2026, 21:01:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical XRP index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 one-minute returns, found 1402 (97.3611% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 15 Sept 2026, 21:01:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical HYPE index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 one-minute returns, found 1402 (97.3611% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 15 Sept 2026, 21:01:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical AVAX index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 one-minute returns, found 1402 (97.3611% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 15 Sept 2026, 21:01:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical TRX index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 one-minute returns, found 1402 (97.3611% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.