01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
XRP one-week ATM IV rose 5.34 volatility points to 66.98% at the cutoff, while AVAX one-week ATM IV fell 3.63 volatility points to 58.81%, leaving an 8.97-point dispersion in daily changes across the altcoin complex.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -3.63 points to +5.34 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 70.05%.
HYPE had the richest call skew at +2.14 points; TRX had the richest put skew at -3.26 points.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at +51.23 vol pts.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 70.05 | XRP · 66.98 · up 1 | AVAX · 58.81 · down 1 | TRX · 18.82 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 5.34 | HYPE · -0.58 | TRX · -1.10 | AVAX · -3.63 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Most call-rich 1W RR25 | HYPE · 2.14 · up 1 | AVAX · 1.10 · up 1 | XRP · -1.46 · down 2 | TRX · -3.26 |
| Most put-rich 1W RR25 | TRX · -3.26 | XRP · -1.46 · up 2 | AVAX · 1.10 · down 1 | HYPE · 2.14 · down 1 |
| 1Y minus 1W curve slope | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| 24h spot performance | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
1W ATM IV change
+6.18 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-44.08 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-3.08 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -8.63% | $1.27 | 66.98% | +5.34 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | -1.46 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +2.12% | $79.03 | 70.05% | -0.58 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.14 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -2.95% | $7.25 | 58.81% | -3.63 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.10 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | 0.00% | $0.34 | 18.82% | -1.10 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | -3.26 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
XRP: Canonical XRP index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded
HYPE: Canonical HYPE index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10040 (99.6032% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded
AVAX: Canonical AVAX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded
TRX: Canonical TRX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 66.98% / +5.34 | 59.57% / +2.20 | 56.52% / +0.51 |
| HYPE | 70.05% / -0.58 | 64.86% / +0.02 | 62.54% / -0.66 |
| AVAX | 58.81% / -3.63 | 57.57% / -1.68 | 57.85% / -0.62 |
| TRX | 18.82% / -1.10 | 17.56% / -0.73 | 18.16% / -1.20 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Sources relevant to the cross-sectional thesis
- 01Bitcoin ETFs Had Their Worst Day Since June Following Failed Clarity Act VoteDecrypt · 15:50 UTC
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP ETFs shed roughly $593 million combined Tuesday, their heaviest single-day drawdown since June.
- 02Kraken Parent Plans Permissioned Hyperliquid Perps for US TradersThe Defiant · 13:09 UTC
Bitnomial would deploy, administer, clear and settle the proposed markets, while NinjaTrader Clearing would carry approved customer accounts.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. The forward proxy is retained only as a fallback spot comparison and is not a consolidated spot index.