01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
XRP one-week ATM IV rose 5.34 volatility points to 66.98% at the cutoff, while AVAX one-week ATM IV fell 3.63 volatility points to 58.81%, leaving an 8.97-point dispersion in daily changes across the altcoin complex.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 51.23 vol points; absolute gap change +0.52 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 8.97 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
XRP stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 6.18 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -3.63 points to +5.34 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 70.05%.
HYPE had the highest 1W RR25 at +2.14 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -3.26 points, put-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 51.23 vol pts.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 70.05 | XRP · 66.98 · up 1 | AVAX · 58.81 · down 1 | TRX · 18.82 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 5.34 | HYPE · -0.58 | TRX · -1.10 | AVAX · -3.63 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | HYPE · 2.14 · up 1 | AVAX · 1.10 · up 1 | XRP · -1.46 · down 2 | TRX · -3.26 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -3.26 | XRP · -1.46 · up 2 | AVAX · 1.10 · down 1 | HYPE · 2.14 · down 1 |
1W ATM IV change
+6.18 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-44.08 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-3.08 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | $1.27 | 66.98% | +5.34 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | -1.46 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | Native fit: 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | Unavailable | $79.03 | 70.05% | -0.58 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.14 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | Native fit: 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | Unavailable | $7.25 | 58.81% | -3.63 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.10 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | Native fit: 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | Unavailable | $0.34 | 18.82% | -1.10 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | -3.26 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | Native fit: 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 66.98% / +5.34 | 59.57% / +2.20 | 56.52% / +0.51 |
| HYPE | 70.05% / -0.58 | 64.86% / +0.02 | 62.54% / -0.66 |
| AVAX | 58.81% / -3.63 | 57.57% / -1.68 | 57.85% / -0.62 |
| TRX | 18.82% / -1.10 | 17.56% / -0.73 | 18.16% / -1.20 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 9a876bbf38820d635be439e3f1be48fee33328a606962db54fb0d105f1bb1efd.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin one-week ATM IV split sharply at the 16:30 UTC cutoff: XRP one-week ATM IV rose 5.34 volatility points to 66.98%, while AVAX one-week ATM IV fell 3.63 volatility points to 58.81%. The resulting 8.97-point spread in daily ATM IV changes marks a clear cross-sectional divergence in Derivasys data, rather than a uniform repricing across the complex.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 66.98% · Δ +5.34 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 70.05% · Δ -0.58 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 58.81% · Δ -3.63 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 18.82% · Δ -1.10 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 -1.46 vol pts · Δ -6.23 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 2.14 vol pts · Δ -1.21 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 1.10 vol pts · Δ +0.25 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -3.26 vol pts · Δ +0.49 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 8.97 vol pts (XRP Δ +5.34 versus AVAX Δ -3.63 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 66.98% · Δ +5.34 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 70.05% · Δ -0.58 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 58.81% · Δ -3.63 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 18.82% · Δ -1.10 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 -1.46 vol pts · Δ -6.23 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 2.14 vol pts · Δ -1.21 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 1.10 vol pts · Δ +0.25 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -3.26 vol pts · Δ +0.49 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 16 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical XRP index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 16 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical HYPE index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10040 (99.6032% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 16 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical AVAX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 16 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical TRX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.