01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
HYPE’s one-week ATM IV fell 5.57 volatility points to 65.33%, while AVAX’s one-week ATM IV fell 1.29 volatility points to 57.38%. The resulting 4.28-point dispersion in daily changes shows that the complex compressed without moving uniformly.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 49.44 vol points; absolute gap change -2.64 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.28 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
AVAX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.32 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -5.57 points to -1.29 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 65.33%.
HYPE had the highest 1W RR25 at +6.26 points, call-rich; AVAX had the lowest at +1.41 points, call-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 49.44 vol pts.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 65.33 | XRP · 63.25 | AVAX · 57.38 | TRX · 15.89 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · -1.29 | TRX · -2.93 | XRP · -4.29 | HYPE · -5.57 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | HYPE · 6.26 | XRP · 5.10 · up 1 | TRX · 3.10 · up 1 | AVAX · 1.41 · down 2 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | AVAX · 1.41 · up 2 | TRX · 3.10 · down 1 | XRP · 5.10 · down 1 | HYPE · 6.26 |
1W ATM IV change
+2.32 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-44.42 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-2.69 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | $1.30 | 63.25% | -4.29 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +5.10 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | Unavailable | $81.91 | 65.33% | -5.57 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +6.26 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | Unavailable | $7.59 | 57.38% | -1.29 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.41 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | Unavailable | $0.33 | 15.89% | -2.93 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.10 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 63.25% / -4.29 | 58.68% / -0.76 | 56.07% / -0.39 |
| HYPE | 65.33% / -5.57 | 64.27% / -0.88 | 63.55% / +1.15 |
| AVAX | 57.38% / -1.29 | 57.74% / +0.14 | 57.97% / +0.09 |
| TRX | 15.89% / -2.93 | 16.75% / -0.81 | 17.81% / -0.35 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: e9d207f7cb7180d73c25910b02cc81c9fa37c82ec01d6be865240db89c63bc08.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin one-week ATM IV fell across the complex, with HYPE one-week ATM IV dropping 5.57 volatility points to 65.33%, the largest decline. AVAX one-week ATM IV fell only 1.29 volatility points to 57.38%, leaving a 4.28-point range in daily changes. Despite that compression, HYPE’s one-week ATM IV remained 49.44 volatility points above TRX’s 15.89%. Derivasys data show a narrower but still unusually segmented front end.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 63.25% · Δ -4.29 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.33% · Δ -5.57 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 57.38% · Δ -1.29 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 15.89% · Δ -2.93 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 5.10 vol pts · Δ +5.63 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 6.26 vol pts · Δ +4.32 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 1.41 vol pts · Δ +0.79 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 3.10 vol pts · Δ +6.35 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 4.28 vol pts (AVAX Δ -1.29 versus HYPE Δ -5.57 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 63.25% · Δ -4.29 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.33% · Δ -5.57 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 57.38% · Δ -1.29 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 15.89% · Δ -2.93 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 5.10 vol pts · Δ +5.63 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 6.26 vol pts · Δ +4.32 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 1.41 vol pts · Δ +0.79 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 3.10 vol pts · Δ +6.35 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC; HYPE 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC; AVAX 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC; TRX 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 17 Sept 2026, 16:39:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical XRP index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 17 Sept 2026, 16:39:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical HYPE index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10040 (99.6032% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 17 Sept 2026, 16:39:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical AVAX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 17 Sept 2026, 16:39:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical TRX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.