01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
HYPE’s one-week ATM IV fell 5.57 volatility points to 65.33%, while AVAX’s one-week ATM IV fell 1.29 volatility points to 57.38%. The resulting 4.28-point dispersion in daily changes shows that the complex compressed without moving uniformly.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -5.57 points to -1.29 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 65.33%.
HYPE had the richest call skew at +6.26 points; AVAX had the richest put skew at +1.41 points.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at +49.44 vol pts.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 65.33 | XRP · 63.25 | AVAX · 57.38 | TRX · 15.89 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · -1.29 | TRX · -2.93 | XRP · -4.29 | HYPE · -5.57 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Most call-rich 1W RR25 | HYPE · 6.26 | XRP · 5.10 · up 1 | TRX · 3.10 · up 1 | AVAX · 1.41 · down 2 |
| Most put-rich 1W RR25 | AVAX · 1.41 · up 2 | TRX · 3.10 · down 1 | XRP · 5.10 · down 1 | HYPE · 6.26 |
| 1Y minus 1W curve slope | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| 24h spot performance | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
1W ATM IV change
+2.32 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-44.42 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-2.69 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +2.36% | $1.30 | 63.25% | -4.29 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +5.10 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +3.70% | $81.91 | 65.33% | -5.57 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +6.26 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +4.83% | $7.59 | 57.38% | -1.29 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.41 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -2.94% | $0.33 | 15.89% | -2.93 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.10 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
XRP: Canonical XRP index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded
HYPE: Canonical HYPE index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10040 (99.6032% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded
AVAX: Canonical AVAX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded
TRX: Canonical TRX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 63.25% / -4.29 | 58.68% / -0.76 | 56.07% / -0.39 |
| HYPE | 65.33% / -5.57 | 64.27% / -0.88 | 63.55% / +1.15 |
| AVAX | 57.38% / -1.29 | 57.74% / +0.14 | 57.97% / +0.09 |
| TRX | 15.89% / -2.93 | 16.75% / -0.81 | 17.81% / -0.35 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Sources relevant to the cross-sectional thesis
- 01Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementFederal Reserve · 18:00 UTC
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. The forward proxy is retained only as a fallback spot comparison and is not a consolidated spot index.