01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The altcoin complex split decisively on one-week relative skew: HYPE remained strongly call-rich while TRX shifted toward puts. That contrast, rather than a uniform volatility move, defined the options market at the cutoff.
What is unusual today?
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 47.64 vol points; absolute gap change -2.22 vol points. Historical percentile rank 65%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 20 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.00 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.08 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -0.63 points to +3.37 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 66.89%.
HYPE had the highest 1W RR25 at +11.31 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -0.37 points, put-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 47.64 vol pts.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 65.0%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 100.0%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 66.89 | XRP · 63.97 | AVAX · 56.12 | TRX · 19.25 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | TRX · 3.37 | XRP · 1.44 | HYPE · 1.15 | AVAX · -0.63 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | HYPE · 11.31 | XRP · 4.17 · up 2 | AVAX · 1.65 | TRX · -0.37 · down 2 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -0.37 · up 2 | AVAX · 1.65 | XRP · 4.17 · down 2 | HYPE · 11.31 |
1W ATM IV change
+2.08 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-40.80 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+8.40 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | $1.39 | 63.97% | +1.44 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +4.17 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 18 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | Unavailable | $91.68 | 66.89% | +1.15 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +11.31 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 18 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | Unavailable | $8.10 | 56.12% | -0.63 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.65 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 18 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | Unavailable | $0.34 | 19.25% | +3.37 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | -0.37 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 18 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 63.97% / +1.44 | 58.33% / -0.33 | 56.53% / +0.36 |
| HYPE | 66.89% / +1.15 | 63.91% / -0.66 | 62.30% / -1.00 |
| AVAX | 56.12% / -0.63 | 56.30% / -1.49 | 57.01% / -1.14 |
| TRX | 19.25% / +3.37 | 20.33% / +3.59 | 21.15% / +3.34 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: a871d825364f6f6dd7d935b469d1329811a979d9b3b7b8a6d12fc7ce3db3d0cb.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin one-week RR25 dispersion widened 5.94 volatility points to 11.68 points between HYPE and TRX at the cutoff. HYPE’s one-week RR25 was 11.31%, leaving calls markedly richer than puts, while TRX’s one-week RR25 was -0.37%, close to neutral but tilted toward puts. Derivasys data show a sharper split in relative skew even as the one-week ATM IV level gap narrowed.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 63.97% · Δ +1.44 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 66.89% · Δ +1.15 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 56.12% · Δ -0.63 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 19.25% · Δ +3.37 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 4.17 vol pts · Δ +3.77 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 11.31 vol pts · Δ +5.17 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 1.65 vol pts · Δ +0.18 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -0.37 vol pts · Δ -3.45 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 4.00 vol pts (TRX Δ +3.37 versus AVAX Δ -0.63 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 63.97% · Δ +1.44 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 66.89% · Δ +1.15 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 56.12% · Δ -0.63 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 19.25% · Δ +3.37 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 4.17 vol pts · Δ +3.77 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 11.31 vol pts · Δ +5.17 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 1.65 vol pts · Δ +0.18 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -0.37 vol pts · Δ -3.45 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 18 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 18 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 18 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 18 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 18 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical XRP index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 18 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical HYPE index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10040 (99.6032% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 18 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical AVAX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 18 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical TRX index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.