01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
AVAX one-week ATM IV stood at 66.51% after an 11.51-point increase, while HYPE one-week ATM IV fell 1.80 points to 65.26%.
What is unusual today?
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 47.60 vol points; absolute gap change -0.81 vol points. Historical percentile rank 62%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 21 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 13.31 vol points. Historical percentile rank 100%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 21 historical observations; minimum 20.
AVAX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 12.25 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -1.80 points to +11.51 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 66.51%.
AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +6.59 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -1.22 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +5.75 points and XRP had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -16.90 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 47.60 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +5.75 vol points; XRP has the lowest at -16.90 vol points. The range between these spreads is 22.65 vol points.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 61.9%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 100.0%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 85.7%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 66.51 · up 2 | HYPE · 65.26 · down 1 | XRP · 61.47 · down 1 | TRX · 18.91 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · 11.51 | TRX · 0.26 | XRP · -1.74 | HYPE · -1.80 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 5.75 | AVAX · -6.53 | HYPE · -10.06 | XRP · -16.90 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | AVAX · 6.59 · up 2 | HYPE · 6.05 · down 1 | XRP · 1.23 · down 1 | TRX · -1.22 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -1.22 | XRP · 1.23 · up 1 | HYPE · 6.05 · up 1 | AVAX · 6.59 · down 2 |
| 24h spot-index return | AVAX · 19.95 | XRP · 3.89 | HYPE · 2.71 | TRX · 0.09 |
1W ATM IV change
+12.25 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-44.45 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-4.86 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+14.04 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +3.89% | $1.44 | 61.47% | -1.74 vol pts | 78.37% · 99.6% coverage | -16.90 vol pts | 0.78× | Unavailable | +1.23 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +2.71% | $93.41 | 65.26% | -1.80 vol pts | 75.32% · 99.6% coverage | -10.06 vol pts | 0.87× | Unavailable | +6.05 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +19.95% | $9.70 | 66.51% | +11.51 vol pts | 73.04% · 99.6% coverage | -6.53 vol pts | 0.91× | Unavailable | +6.59 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +0.09% | $0.34 | 18.91% | +0.26 vol pts | 13.16% · 99.6% coverage | +5.75 vol pts | 1.44× | Unavailable | -1.22 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 61.47% / -1.74 | 58.58% / +0.10 | 57.02% / +0.55 |
| HYPE | 65.26% / -1.80 | 63.66% / -0.32 | 62.71% / +0.40 |
| AVAX | 66.51% / +11.51 | 57.87% / +1.74 | 57.14% / +0.04 |
| TRX | 18.91% / +0.26 | 20.51% / +0.30 | 21.08% / +0.02 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 8002d686427e6f895afb3b9dede9d9cd7dc1bdebeb5c37626cb347949983dba0.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
AVAX one-week ATM IV rose 11.51 volatility points to 66.51%, creating a 13.31-point dispersion against HYPE one-week ATM IV, which fell 1.80 volatility points to 65.26%. The split made AVAX the clear daily volatility outlier across the altcoin complex at the cutoff, while XRP one-week ATM IV also declined and TRX one-week ATM IV was little changed.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 61.47% · Δ -1.74 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.26% · Δ -1.80 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 66.51% · Δ +11.51 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 18.91% · Δ +0.26 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 1.23 vol pts · Δ -2.76 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 6.05 vol pts · Δ -4.98 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 6.59 vol pts · Δ +5.04 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -1.22 vol pts · Δ -1.33 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 13.31 vol pts (AVAX Δ +11.51 versus HYPE Δ -1.80 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 61.47% · Δ -1.74 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.26% · Δ -1.80 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 66.51% · Δ +11.51 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 18.91% · Δ +0.26 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 1.23 vol pts · Δ -2.76 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 6.05 vol pts · Δ -4.98 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 6.59 vol pts · Δ +5.04 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -1.22 vol pts · Δ -1.33 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; HYPE 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; AVAX 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC; TRX 19 Sept 2026, 16:59 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.623% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.6032% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.623% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.623% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.623% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10042/10080 observed returns; 99.623% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43162/43200 observed returns; 99.912% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.6032% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10040/10080 observed returns; 99.6032% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43160/43200 observed returns; 99.9074% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.623% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10042/10080 observed returns; 99.623% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43162/43200 observed returns; 99.912% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 19 Sept 2026, 16:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.623% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10042/10080 observed returns; 99.623% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43162/43200 observed returns; 99.912% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.