01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
AVAX drove a sharp cross-sectional split at the cutoff: AVAX one-week ATM IV rose 10.37 volatility points to 77.42%, while TRX one-week ATM IV fell 2.88 volatility points to 15.23%. Derivasys data put the resulting 62.19-point one-week ATM IV level spread at an observed high.
What is unusual today?
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 62.19 vol points; absolute gap change +13.25 vol points. Historical percentile rank 100%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 22 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 13.25 vol points. Historical percentile rank 95%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 22 historical observations; minimum 20.
AVAX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 8.50 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -2.88 points to +10.37 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 77.42%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +5.53 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -0.36 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +0.83 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -25.28 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 62.19 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +0.83 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -25.28 vol points. The range between these spreads is 26.11 vol points.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 100.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 95.2%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 77.3%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 77.42 | HYPE · 67.36 | XRP · 61.88 | TRX · 15.23 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · 10.37 | HYPE · 2.15 | XRP · 1.59 | TRX · -2.88 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 0.83 | HYPE · -9.12 | XRP · -18.80 | AVAX · -25.28 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 5.53 · up 2 | HYPE · 2.06 · down 1 | AVAX · 1.98 · down 1 | TRX · -0.36 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -0.36 | AVAX · 1.98 · up 1 | HYPE · 2.06 · up 1 | XRP · 5.53 · down 2 |
| 24h spot-index return | AVAX · 16.09 | TRX · 1.67 | HYPE · -0.07 | XRP · -2.11 |
1W ATM IV change
+8.50 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-49.39 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+3.51 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+14.79 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -2.11% | $1.40 | 61.88% | +1.59 vol pts | 80.68% · 99.6% coverage | -18.80 vol pts | 0.77× | Unavailable | +5.53 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -0.07% | $92.91 | 67.36% | +2.15 vol pts | 76.48% · 99.6% coverage | -9.12 vol pts | 0.88× | Unavailable | +2.06 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +16.09% | $11.11 | 77.42% | +10.37 vol pts | 102.70% · 99.6% coverage | -25.28 vol pts | 0.75× | Unavailable | +1.98 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +1.67% | $0.34 | 15.23% | -2.88 vol pts | 14.40% · 99.6% coverage | +0.83 vol pts | 1.06× | Unavailable | -0.36 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 61.88% / +1.59 | 58.48% / +0.31 | 56.92% / -0.21 |
| HYPE | 67.36% / +2.15 | 63.43% / +0.01 | 61.97% / -0.44 |
| AVAX | 77.42% / +10.37 | 62.80% / +4.70 | 58.84% / +1.59 |
| TRX | 15.23% / -2.88 | 23.03% / +3.12 | 17.39% / -3.19 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: f6b938ed09addd1e10b7558d24a5b6e7c334a87a5793c8d12be39c1e230e8823.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin one-week ATM IV dispersion widened 13.25 volatility points to 62.19 points, an observed high, as AVAX one-week ATM IV rose 10.37 points to 77.42% while TRX one-week ATM IV fell 2.88 points to 15.23%. The resulting gap makes the complex markedly less uniform, with AVAX retaining the highest implied-volatility level and TRX the lowest.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 61.88% · Δ +1.59 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 67.36% · Δ +2.15 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 77.42% · Δ +10.37 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 15.23% · Δ -2.88 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 5.53 vol pts · Δ +4.99 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 2.06 vol pts · Δ -4.59 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 1.98 vol pts · Δ -3.72 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -0.36 vol pts · Δ -0.73 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 13.25 vol pts (AVAX Δ +10.37 versus TRX Δ -2.88 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 61.88% · Δ +1.59 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 67.36% · Δ +2.15 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 77.42% · Δ +10.37 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 15.23% · Δ -2.88 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 5.53 vol pts · Δ +4.99 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 2.06 vol pts · Δ -4.59 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 1.98 vol pts · Δ -3.72 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -0.36 vol pts · Δ -0.73 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.623% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.6032% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.623% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 99.623% / 99.5% required | 37 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 20 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.623% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10042/10080 observed returns; 99.623% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43162/43200 observed returns; 99.912% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 20 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.6032% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10040/10080 observed returns; 99.6032% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43160/43200 observed returns; 99.9074% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 20 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.623% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10042/10080 observed returns; 99.623% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43162/43200 observed returns; 99.912% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 20 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 99.623% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 37 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. Partial RV suppressed — a valid recorded 7D coverage policy and gap evidence are required.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; not recorded minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: partial; 10042/10080 observed returns; 99.623% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 37 min largest gap.
30d: partial; 43162/43200 observed returns; 99.912% coverage; not recorded minimum; 37 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.