01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The defining altcoin-options development was compression within an exceptionally wide one-week ATM IV range: AVAX stood at 81.01% and TRX at 18.55%, leaving a 62.46-point gap. XRP’s 7.53-point rise and HYPE’s 0.98-point fall produced an 8.51-point dispersion in daily one-week ATM IV changes.
What is unusual today?
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 62.46 vol points; absolute gap change -3.66 vol points. Historical percentile rank 100%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 23 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 8.51 vol points. Historical percentile rank 82%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 23 historical observations; minimum 20.
XRP stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 6.11 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -0.98 points to +7.53 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 81.01%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +6.11 points, call-rich; HYPE had the lowest at +2.74 points, call-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 62.46 vol pts.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 100.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 81.8%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 39.1%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 81.01 | XRP · 71.10 · up 1 | HYPE · 66.50 · down 1 | TRX · 18.55 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 7.53 | TRX · 3.25 | AVAX · -0.41 | HYPE · -0.98 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 6.11 · up 1 | AVAX · 5.83 · down 1 | TRX · 3.02 · up 1 | HYPE · 2.74 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | HYPE · 2.74 · up 1 | TRX · 3.02 · down 1 | AVAX · 5.83 · up 1 | XRP · 6.11 · down 1 |
| 24h spot-index return | XRP · 7.17 | TRX · 0.17 | HYPE · 0.02 | AVAX · -2.27 |
1W ATM IV change
+6.11 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-50.25 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+1.69 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +7.17% | $1.51 | 71.10% | +7.53 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.4% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +6.11 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 21 Sept 2026, 18:42 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +0.02% | $93.05 | 66.50% | -0.98 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.4% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.74 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 21 Sept 2026, 18:42 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -2.27% | $10.90 | 81.01% | -0.41 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.4% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +5.83 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 21 Sept 2026, 18:42 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +0.17% | $0.34 | 18.55% | +3.25 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.4% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.02 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 21 Sept 2026, 18:42 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 71.10% / +7.53 | 67.08% / +7.25 | 64.90% / +7.34 |
| HYPE | 66.50% / -0.98 | 63.29% / -0.38 | 61.34% / -0.87 |
| AVAX | 81.01% / -0.41 | 68.87% / +4.76 | 64.41% / +4.53 |
| TRX | 18.55% / +3.25 | 19.44% / -3.65 | 19.15% / +1.76 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 10b45d48d816537a45327c499a3def2c80f99f9ffbe9ad1d17860b7ec515db00.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin options retained an unusually broad range of one-week implied-volatility levels at the cutoff, even as the AVAX-to-TRX gap compressed by 3.66 volatility points to 62.46 points. Derivasys data show AVAX remained the richest one-week market at 81.01%, while TRX remained the cheapest at 18.55%. XRP supplied the sharpest one-week ATM IV increase, separating daily repricing from the still-wide level dispersion.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 71.10% · Δ +7.53 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 66.50% · Δ -0.98 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 81.01% · Δ -0.41 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 18.55% · Δ +3.25 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 6.11 vol pts · Δ +2.54 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 2.74 vol pts · Δ -0.42 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 5.83 vol pts · Δ +1.55 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 3.02 vol pts · Δ +3.30 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 8.51 vol pts (XRP Δ +7.53 versus HYPE Δ -0.98 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 71.10% · Δ +7.53 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 66.50% · Δ -0.98 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 81.01% · Δ -0.41 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 18.55% · Δ +3.25 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 6.11 vol pts · Δ +2.54 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 2.74 vol pts · Δ -0.42 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 5.83 vol pts · Δ +1.55 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 3.02 vol pts · Δ +3.30 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 21 Sept 2026, 18:42 UTC; HYPE 21 Sept 2026, 18:42 UTC; AVAX 21 Sept 2026, 18:42 UTC; TRX 21 Sept 2026, 18:42 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.3512% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.3512% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.3512% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.3512% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 21 Sept 2026, 18:42:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.3512% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.3512% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1211/1440 observed returns; 84.0972% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9813/10080 observed returns; 97.3512% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42933/43200 observed returns; 99.3819% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 21 Sept 2026, 18:42:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.3512% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.3512% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1211/1440 observed returns; 84.0972% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9813/10080 observed returns; 97.3512% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42931/43200 observed returns; 99.3773% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 21 Sept 2026, 18:42:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.3512% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.3512% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1211/1440 observed returns; 84.0972% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9813/10080 observed returns; 97.3512% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42933/43200 observed returns; 99.3819% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 21 Sept 2026, 18:42:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.3512% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.3512% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1211/1440 observed returns; 84.0972% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9813/10080 observed returns; 97.3512% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42933/43200 observed returns; 99.3819% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.