01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
XRP and TRX defined the altcoin options split at the cutoff: XRP one-week RR25 was 9.91%, compared with TRX one-week RR25 of 1.00%. Both readings remained positive, meaning calls were richer than puts, but the 8.91-point gap widened from 3.82 points.
What is unusual today?
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 61.64 vol points; absolute gap change -0.24 vol points. Historical percentile rank 92%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 24 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 8.10 vol points. Historical percentile rank 78%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 24 historical observations; minimum 20.
XRP stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 5.54 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -1.19 points to +6.91 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 82.27%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +9.91 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at +1.00 points, call-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 61.64 vol pts.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 91.7%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 78.3%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 91.7%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 82.27 | XRP · 77.86 | HYPE · 65.20 | TRX · 20.63 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 6.91 | TRX · 1.49 | AVAX · 1.25 | HYPE · -1.19 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 9.91 · up 1 | AVAX · 7.52 · down 1 | HYPE · 4.56 | TRX · 1.00 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · 1.00 | HYPE · 4.56 | AVAX · 7.52 · up 1 | XRP · 9.91 · down 1 |
1W ATM IV change
+5.54 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-50.90 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-5.04 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | $1.58 | 77.86% | +6.91 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.7% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +9.91 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 22 Sept 2026, 18:18 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | Unavailable | $96.90 | 65.20% | -1.19 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.7% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +4.56 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 22 Sept 2026, 18:15 UTC (3 min before cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | Unavailable | $11.03 | 82.27% | +1.25 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.7% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +7.52 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 22 Sept 2026, 18:18 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | Unavailable | $0.34 | 20.63% | +1.49 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.7% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +1.00 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 22 Sept 2026, 18:18 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 77.86% / +6.91 | 72.20% / +5.34 | 69.47% / +4.30 |
| HYPE | 65.20% / -1.19 | 61.92% / -1.66 | 60.05% / -1.49 |
| AVAX | 82.27% / +1.25 | 73.03% / +3.81 | 70.67% / +5.62 |
| TRX | 20.63% / +1.49 | 21.06% / +1.43 | 21.88% / +2.74 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 7ae843b5484343ba4192b931d21c00c3cad9b24353b24a75bc70375049016f83.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin one-week RR25 dispersion widened 5.09 volatility points to 8.91 points, as XRP’s one-week call-minus-put RR25 reached 9.91% while TRX’s stood at 1.00%. The widening marks a sharper separation in relative call-side volatility across the complex, even as the one-week ATM IV level gap between AVAX and TRX narrowed 0.24 points to 61.64 points.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 77.86% · Δ +6.91 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.20% · Δ -1.19 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 82.27% · Δ +1.25 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 20.63% · Δ +1.49 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 9.91 vol pts · Δ +3.53 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 4.56 vol pts · Δ +1.04 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 7.52 vol pts · Δ +0.92 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 1.00 vol pts · Δ -1.78 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 77.86% · Δ +6.91 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.20% · Δ -1.19 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 82.27% · Δ +1.25 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 20.63% · Δ +1.49 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 9.91 vol pts · Δ +3.53 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 4.56 vol pts · Δ +1.04 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 7.52 vol pts · Δ +0.92 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 1.00 vol pts · Δ -1.78 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 22 Sept 2026, 18:18 UTC; HYPE 22 Sept 2026, 18:15 UTC; AVAX 22 Sept 2026, 18:18 UTC; TRX 22 Sept 2026, 18:18 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.7083% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.7083% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.7083% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.7083% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 22 Sept 2026, 18:18:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.7083% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.7083% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1420/1440 observed returns; 98.6111% coverage; not recorded minimum; 18 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9849/10080 observed returns; 97.7083% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42931/43200 observed returns; 99.3773% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 22 Sept 2026, 18:15:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.7083% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.7083% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1417/1440 observed returns; 98.4028% coverage; not recorded minimum; 21 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9849/10080 observed returns; 97.7083% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42929/43200 observed returns; 99.3727% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 22 Sept 2026, 18:18:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.7083% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.7083% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1420/1440 observed returns; 98.6111% coverage; not recorded minimum; 18 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9849/10080 observed returns; 97.7083% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42931/43200 observed returns; 99.3773% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 22 Sept 2026, 18:18:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.7083% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.7083% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1420/1440 observed returns; 98.6111% coverage; not recorded minimum; 18 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9849/10080 observed returns; 97.7083% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42931/43200 observed returns; 99.3773% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.