01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
XRP one-week ATM IV rose 5.52 volatility points to 84.05%, while HYPE one-week ATM IV fell 4.30 volatility points to 61.70%, leaving a 9.82-point cross-complex dispersion in daily volatility changes.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -4.30 points to +5.52 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 84.92%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +6.30 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at +0.43 points, call-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at +62.86 vol pts.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion 100.0 percentile; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion 87.5 percentile; 1W RR25 dispersion 72.0 percentile.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 84.92 | XRP · 84.05 | HYPE · 61.70 | TRX · 22.06 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 5.52 | TRX · 3.08 | AVAX · 1.64 | HYPE · -4.30 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 6.30 | AVAX · 5.66 · up 1 | HYPE · 2.68 · down 1 | TRX · 0.43 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · 0.43 | HYPE · 2.68 · up 1 | AVAX · 5.66 · down 1 | XRP · 6.30 |
| 1Y minus 1W curve slope | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change | XRP · unavailable | HYPE · unavailable | AVAX · unavailable | TRX · unavailable |
| 24h spot-index return | TRX · -0.37 | HYPE · -3.29 | XRP · -6.51 | AVAX · -7.01 |
1W ATM IV change
-6.66 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-50.81 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-3.74 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -6.51% | $1.49 | 84.05% | +5.52 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.5% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +6.30 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -3.29% | $93.88 | 61.70% | -4.30 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.5% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.68 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -7.01% | $10.28 | 84.92% | +1.64 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.5% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +5.66 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.37% | $0.34 | 22.06% | +3.08 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.5% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +0.43 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
RV uses observed one-minute returns, with at least 99.5% coverage and no price gap longer than one hour. Returns spanning gaps are excluded; prices are not interpolated. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps, and IV/RV comparisons inherit that limitation.
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 84.05% / +5.52 | 76.10% / +3.94 | 70.38% / +0.90 |
| HYPE | 61.70% / -4.30 | 60.29% / -1.26 | 58.98% / -1.32 |
| AVAX | 84.92% / +1.64 | 76.25% / +2.93 | 72.48% / +2.09 |
| TRX | 22.06% / +3.08 | 22.46% / +1.27 | 22.47% / +0.52 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Sources relevant to the cross-sectional thesis
- 01Delayed Sends/Receives - Avalanche (AVAX)Coinbase · 02:01 UTC
Coinbase reported delayed sends and receives on Avalanche; buys, sells, and fiat withdrawals and deposits were unaffected.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.