01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
XRP one-week ATM IV rose 5.52 volatility points to 84.05%, while HYPE one-week ATM IV fell 4.30 volatility points to 61.70%, leaving a 9.82-point cross-complex dispersion in daily volatility changes.
What is unusual today?
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 62.86 vol points; absolute gap change -1.44 vol points. Historical percentile rank 100%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 25 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 9.82 vol points. Historical percentile rank 88%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 25 historical observations; minimum 20.
HYPE stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 6.66 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -4.30 points to +5.52 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 84.92%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +6.30 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at +0.43 points, call-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 62.86 vol pts.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 100.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 87.5%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 72.0%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 84.92 | XRP · 84.05 | HYPE · 61.70 | TRX · 22.06 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 5.52 | TRX · 3.08 | AVAX · 1.64 | HYPE · -4.30 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 6.30 | AVAX · 5.66 · up 1 | HYPE · 2.68 · down 1 | TRX · 0.43 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · 0.43 | HYPE · 2.68 · up 1 | AVAX · 5.66 · down 1 | XRP · 6.30 |
| 24h spot-index return | TRX · -0.37 | HYPE · -3.29 | XRP · -6.51 | AVAX · -7.01 |
1W ATM IV change
-6.66 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-50.81 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-3.74 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | 1W BF25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -6.51% | $1.49 | 84.05% | +5.52 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.5% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +6.30 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | Native fit: 23 Sept 2026, 19:20 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -3.29% | $93.88 | 61.70% | -4.30 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.5% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.68 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | Native fit: 23 Sept 2026, 19:20 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -7.01% | $10.28 | 84.92% | +1.64 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.5% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +5.66 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | Native fit: 23 Sept 2026, 19:20 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.37% | $0.34 | 22.06% | +3.08 vol pts | Unavailable · 97.5% coverage | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +0.43 vol pts | Unavailable | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | Native fit: 23 Sept 2026, 19:20 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 84.05% / +5.52 | 76.10% / +3.94 | 70.38% / +0.90 |
| HYPE | 61.70% / -4.30 | 60.29% / -1.26 | 58.98% / -1.32 |
| AVAX | 84.92% / +1.64 | 76.25% / +2.93 | 72.48% / +2.09 |
| TRX | 22.06% / +3.08 | 22.46% / +1.27 | 22.47% / +0.52 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: e781e0189c0c6bbba828db779b8208e37be5a3a8352d197ece6d72d16ef92bca.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Altcoin options diverged over the 24-hour window: XRP one-week ATM IV rose 5.52 volatility points to 84.05%, while HYPE one-week ATM IV fell 4.30 volatility points to 61.70%. The resulting 9.82-point dispersion in one-week ATM IV changes was pronounced in Derivasys data. AVAX retained the highest one-week ATM IV level at 84.92%, versus TRX at 22.06%, although that level spread compressed by 1.44 volatility points to 62.86 points. One-minute realised-volatility comparisons were unavailable across the complex.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 84.05% · Δ +5.52 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 61.70% · Δ -4.30 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 84.92% · Δ +1.64 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 22.06% · Δ +3.08 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 6.30 vol pts · Δ -3.76 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 2.68 vol pts · Δ -2.53 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 5.66 vol pts · Δ +0.68 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 0.43 vol pts · Δ +0.14 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 9.82 vol pts (XRP Δ +5.52 versus HYPE Δ -4.30 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 84.05% · Δ +5.52 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 61.70% · Δ -4.30 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 84.92% · Δ +1.64 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 22.06% · Δ +3.08 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 6.30 vol pts · Δ -3.76 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 2.68 vol pts · Δ -2.53 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 5.66 vol pts · Δ +0.68 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 0.43 vol pts · Δ +0.14 vol pts
Wings
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP Wings; XRP IV versus RV; HYPE Wings; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX Wings; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX Wings; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 23 Sept 2026, 19:20 UTC; HYPE 23 Sept 2026, 19:20 UTC; AVAX 23 Sept 2026, 19:20 UTC; TRX 23 Sept 2026, 19:20 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.4603% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.4603% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.4603% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | 97.4603% / 99.5% required | 228 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 23 Sept 2026, 19:20:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.4603% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.4603% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1415/1440 observed returns; 98.2639% coverage; not recorded minimum; 21 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9824/10080 observed returns; 97.4603% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42906/43200 observed returns; 99.3194% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 23 Sept 2026, 19:20:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.4603% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.4603% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1415/1440 observed returns; 98.2639% coverage; not recorded minimum; 21 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9824/10080 observed returns; 97.4603% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42904/43200 observed returns; 99.3148% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 23 Sept 2026, 19:20:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.4603% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.4603% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1415/1440 observed returns; 98.2639% coverage; not recorded minimum; 21 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9824/10080 observed returns; 97.4603% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42906/43200 observed returns; 99.3194% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 23 Sept 2026, 19:20:00 UTC · 7D coverage 97.4603% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 228 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.4603% with a largest gap of 228 minutes.
24h: unavailable; 1415/1440 observed returns; 98.2639% coverage; not recorded minimum; 21 min largest gap.
7d: unavailable; 9824/10080 observed returns; 97.4603% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 228 min largest gap.
30d: unavailable; 42906/43200 observed returns; 99.3194% coverage; not recorded minimum; 228 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.