Altcoin options diverge as AVAX one-week volatility falls while TRX rises

01 · Market read

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

The sharp AVAX decline and TRX increase left one-week at-the-money implied-volatility changes widely dispersed, even as the gap between their implied-volatility levels narrowed. The distinction matters: AVAX led the group by level while recording its largest daily decline. XRP and HYPE lay between those two moves, so the complex did not move in one direction. The market read is also uneven against realised volatility. AVAX one-week at-the-money IV stood 23.85 volatility points below AVAX seven-day realised volatility, while TRX one-week at-the-money IV stood 2.24 points above TRX seven-day realised volatility. These are levels at the cutoff, not changes in the implied-versus-realised spread. The one-year-minus-one-week curve comparison is unavailable across this group.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 57.70 vol points; signed spread change -9.57 vol points. Historical percentile rank 73%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 30 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 9.57 vol points. Historical percentile rank 83%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 30 historical observations; minimum 20.

AVAX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 5.83 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.

Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -6.16 points to +3.41 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 76.03%.

XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +7.59 points, call-rich; HYPE had the lowest at +2.18 points, call-rich.

Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +2.24 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -23.85 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 57.70 vol pts.

TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +2.24 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -23.85 vol points. The range between these spreads is 26.09 vol points.

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 73.3%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 82.8%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 66.7%.

This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.

02 · Relative-value rankings

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

Metric	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1W ATM IV level	AVAX · 76.03	XRP · 71.48	HYPE · 61.81	TRX · 18.33
Daily 1W ATM IV change	TRX · 3.41	HYPE · 0.37	XRP · -1.04	AVAX · -6.16
1W IV minus 7d realised	TRX · 2.24	HYPE · -1.74	XRP · -10.06	AVAX · -23.85
Highest 1W RR25	XRP · 7.59 · up 2	AVAX · 3.96 · down 1	TRX · 2.25 · up 1	HYPE · 2.18 · down 2
Lowest 1W RR25	HYPE · 2.18 · up 2	TRX · 2.25 · down 1	AVAX · 3.96 · up 1	XRP · 7.59 · down 2
1Y minus 1W curve slope	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
24h spot-index return	TRX · 0.35	XRP · -0.43	HYPE · -2.91	AVAX · -3.04

AVAX

1W ATM IV change

-5.83 points from the group median

TRX

1W ATM IV level

-48.32 points from the group median

XRP

1W RR25 level

+4.48 points from the group median

AVAX

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

-17.95 points from the group median

03 · Altcoin scorecard

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

Asset	Spot 24h	Forward proxy	1W ATM	1W ATM Δ	7d RV	1W IV − 7d RV	IV/RV ratio	Spread percentile	1W RR25	Fit evidence	Status
XRP	-0.43%	$1.52	71.48%	-1.04 vol pts	81.54% · 99.8% coverage	-10.06 vol pts	0.88×	Unavailable	+7.59 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
HYPE	-2.91%	$89.73	61.81%	+0.37 vol pts	63.55% · 99.8% coverage	-1.74 vol pts	0.97×	Unavailable	+2.18 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
AVAX	-3.04%	$10.50	76.03%	-6.16 vol pts	99.88% · 99.8% coverage	-23.85 vol pts	0.76×	Unavailable	+3.96 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
TRX	+0.35%	$0.33	18.33%	+3.41 vol pts	16.09% · 99.8% coverage	+2.24 vol pts	1.14×	Unavailable	+2.25 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

Asset	1W ATM / Δ	1M ATM / Δ
XRP	71.48% / -1.04	69.98% / -1.87
HYPE	61.81% / +0.37	58.78% / -0.37
AVAX	76.03% / -6.16	73.16% / -2.79
TRX	18.33% / +3.41	20.07% / +4.78

05 · Catalyst check

Relevant market context identified

The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.

Sources relevant to the cross-sectional thesis

01
Oil prices surge after Trump rejects Iran’s plan to reopen Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera · 09:17 UTC
Brent crude rises more than 3 percent to top $107 a barrel as Washington dismisses Tehran's proposal to end war.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Altcoins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Original report summary

Derivasys data show AVAX one-week at-the-money implied volatility fell 6.16 volatility points to 76.03%, while TRX one-week at-the-money implied volatility rose 3.41 points to 18.33% over the daily observation window. The 9.57-point range between those changes sits at the 82.8 percentile of the available history. At-the-money implied volatility measures volatility implied by options near the underlying asset’s current price. AVAX still had the highest one-week implied-volatility level among the four altcoins, despite its sharp decline.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 71.48% · Δ -1.04 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 61.81% · Δ +0.37 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 76.03% · Δ -6.16 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 18.33% · Δ +3.41 vol pts

Skew: XRP 1W RR25 7.59 vol pts · Δ +5.14 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 2.18 vol pts · Δ -2.81 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 3.96 vol pts · Δ -1.61 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 2.25 vol pts · Δ +0.06 vol pts

Relative value: XRP 1W IV 71.48% / 7D RV 81.54% · spread -10.06 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below); HYPE 1W IV 61.81% / 7D RV 63.55% · spread -1.74 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below); AVAX 1W IV 76.03% / 7D RV 99.88% · spread -23.85 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below); TRX 1W IV 18.33% / 7D RV 16.09% · spread +2.24 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below)

Vol

XRP 1W ATM IV 71.48% · Δ -1.04 vol pts

HYPE 1W ATM IV 61.81% · Δ +0.37 vol pts

AVAX 1W ATM IV 76.03% · Δ -6.16 vol pts

TRX 1W ATM IV 18.33% · Δ +3.41 vol pts

Skew

XRP 1W RR25 7.59 vol pts · Δ +5.14 vol pts

HYPE 1W RR25 2.18 vol pts · Δ -2.81 vol pts

AVAX 1W RR25 3.96 vol pts · Δ -1.61 vol pts

TRX 1W RR25 2.25 vol pts · Δ +0.06 vol pts

Wings

XRP 1W BF25 5.59 vol pts · Δ -1.64 vol pts

HYPE 1W BF25 3.64 vol pts · Δ -0.09 vol pts

AVAX 1W BF25 4.28 vol pts · Δ -1.19 vol pts

TRX 1W BF25 3.11 vol pts · Δ -0.42 vol pts

IV versus RV

XRP 1W IV 71.48% / 7D RV 81.54% · spread -10.06 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

HYPE 1W IV 61.81% / 7D RV 63.55% · spread -1.74 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

AVAX 1W IV 76.03% / 7D RV 99.88% · spread -23.85 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.82% coverage, longest gap 17 min; gaps may miss volatility

TRX 1W IV 18.33% / 7D RV 16.09% · spread +2.24 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: XRP 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC; HYPE 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC; AVAX 28 Sept 2026, 13:13 UTC; TRX 28 Sept 2026, 13:08 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
XRP	81.54%	Partial	99.8313% / 99.5% required	16 min / 60 min maximum
HYPE	63.55%	Partial	99.8313% / 99.5% required	16 min / 60 min maximum
AVAX	99.88%	Partial	99.8214% / 99.5% required	17 min / 60 min maximum
TRX	16.09%	Partial	99.8313% / 99.5% required	16 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

XRP · Surface cutoff 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-27T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.43,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": 81.54,
  "rv30dPercent": 70.82,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1423,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43145
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1423,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 98.8194,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 98.8194% with 16 missing price minutes across 1 intervals and a largest gap of 16 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43145,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8727,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 53,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 71.48,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -10.06,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 0.66
}

HYPE · Surface cutoff 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-27T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -2.91,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": 63.55,
  "rv30dPercent": 66.97,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1423,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43143
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1423,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 98.8194,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 98.8194% with 16 missing price minutes across 1 intervals and a largest gap of 16 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43143,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8681,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 54,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 61.81,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -1.74,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -5.16
}

AVAX · Surface cutoff 28 Sept 2026, 13:13:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-28T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-27T13:13:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -3.04,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": 99.88,
  "rv30dPercent": 84.17,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1422,
    "7d": 10062,
    "30d": 43144
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1422,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 98.75,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 17,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 17,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 98.7500% with 17 missing price minutes across 1 intervals and a largest gap of 17 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10062,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8214,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 17,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 17,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43144,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8704,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 54,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 76.03,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -23.85,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -8.14
}

TRX · Surface cutoff 28 Sept 2026, 13:08:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-28T13:08:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-27T13:08:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.35,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": 16.09,
  "rv30dPercent": 15.25,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1423,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43145
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1423,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 98.8194,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 98.8194% with 16 missing price minutes across 1 intervals and a largest gap of 16 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43145,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8727,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 53,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 18.33,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 2.24,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 3.08
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

An availability-aware daily comparison.

Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.

Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.

Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.