Altcoin options diverge as AVAX volatility jumps and HYPE volatility falls

01 · Market read

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

The uneven volatility adjustment left the AVAX–TRX one-week ATM IV level spread at 72.38 volatility points, widening by 14.02 points. Yet high absolute IV did not mean the richest implied-versus-realised reading: AVAX one-week ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility stood at -15.92 points, compared with +3.39 points for TRX. The TRX–AVAX range in that metric was 19.31 volatility points. AVAX's 24-hour spot-index return was +10.38%, against HYPE's 24-hour spot-index return of -1.03%, adding a matching-window distinction between the volatility leader and laggard. The altcoins' seven-day realised-volatility estimates qualify despite partial coverage. Cross-sectional historical percentiles, pair correlations and long-dated curve comparisons remain unavailable.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: 72.38 vol points; signed spread change +14.02 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 15.13 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.

AVAX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 14.37 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.

Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -0.71 points to +14.42 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 90.44%.

AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +7.82 points, call-rich; HYPE had the lowest at +1.69 points, call-rich.

Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +3.39 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -15.92 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 72.38 vol pts.

TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +3.39 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -15.92 vol points. The range between these spreads is 19.31 vol points.

This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.

02 · Relative-value rankings

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

Metric	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1W ATM IV level	AVAX · 90.44	XRP · 69.56	HYPE · 61.54	TRX · 18.06
Daily 1W ATM IV change	AVAX · 14.42	TRX · 0.40	XRP · -0.30	HYPE · -0.71
1W IV minus 7d realised	TRX · 3.39	HYPE · -2.37	XRP · -9.09	AVAX · -15.92
Highest 1W RR25	AVAX · 7.82 · up 1	XRP · 4.76 · down 1	TRX · 4.22 · up 1	HYPE · 1.69 · down 1
Lowest 1W RR25	HYPE · 1.69 · up 1	TRX · 4.22 · down 1	XRP · 4.76 · up 1	AVAX · 7.82 · down 1
1Y minus 1W curve slope	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
24h spot-index return	AVAX · 10.38	XRP · 0.67	TRX · -0.18	HYPE · -1.03

AVAX

1W ATM IV change

+14.37 points from the group median

TRX

1W ATM IV level

-47.49 points from the group median

AVAX

1W RR25 level

+3.33 points from the group median

AVAX

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

-10.19 points from the group median

03 · Altcoin scorecard

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

Asset	Spot 24h	Forward proxy	1W ATM	1W ATM Δ	7d RV	1W IV − 7d RV	IV/RV ratio	Spread percentile	1W RR25	Fit evidence	Status
XRP	+0.67%	$1.50	69.56%	-0.30 vol pts	78.65% · 99.8% coverage	-9.09 vol pts	0.88×	Unavailable	+4.76 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
HYPE	-1.03%	$86.06	61.54%	-0.71 vol pts	63.91% · 99.8% coverage	-2.37 vol pts	0.96×	Unavailable	+1.69 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
AVAX	+10.38%	$11.43	90.44%	+14.42 vol pts	106.36% · 99.8% coverage	-15.92 vol pts	0.85×	Unavailable	+7.82 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
TRX	-0.18%	$0.34	18.06%	+0.40 vol pts	14.67% · 99.8% coverage	+3.39 vol pts	1.23×	Unavailable	+4.22 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

Asset	1W ATM / Δ	1M ATM / Δ
XRP	69.56% / -0.30	68.77% / -0.28
HYPE	61.54% / -0.71	59.73% / -0.20
AVAX	90.44% / +14.42	81.86% / +9.21
TRX	18.06% / +0.40	17.15% / -0.64

05 · Catalyst check

Relevant market context identified

The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.

Sources relevant to the cross-sectional thesis

01
House Oversight Expands Prediction-Market Probe to HyperliquidThe Defiant · 15:31 UTC
Comer is seeking identity-verification and suspicious-trading records from Hyperliquid Labs, Crypto.com and PredictIt owner Aristotle Exchange.
02
Coinbase Adds HYPE and ZEC as Collateral for Loans of Up to $100,000The Defiant · 15:15 UTC
The Morpho-powered borrowing product runs on Base and is available to eligible US users outside New York.
03
US crypto ETF inflows cool after $3.3B week but streaks holdCointelegraph · 10:15 UTC
US spot crypto ETF inflows fell about 80% from Friday as Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP funds attracted $64.8 million combined on Monday.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Altcoins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

AVAX 1W ATM IV 90.44% · Δ +14.42 vol pts

HYPE 1W ATM IV 61.54% · Δ -0.71 vol pts

AVAX minus HYPE: signed spread +28.90 vol pts · spread Δ +15.13 vol pts

Absolute current level gap: 28.90 vol pts

Daily-change dispersion: 15.13 vol pts

Original report summary

Derivasys data show AVAX one-week ATM IV rose 14.42 volatility points to 90.44% over the 24-hour observation window ending September 29, while HYPE one-week ATM IV fell 0.71 points to 61.54%. The AVAX–HYPE range in one-week ATM IV daily changes stood at 15.13 volatility points. This was a differentiated repricing across the complex: TRX one-week ATM IV rose 0.40 points, while XRP one-week ATM IV fell 0.30 points. ATM IV measures volatility implied by options near the underlying's current price.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 69.56% · Δ -0.30 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 61.54% · Δ -0.71 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 90.44% · Δ +14.42 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 18.06% · Δ +0.40 vol pts

Skew: XRP 1W RR25 4.76 vol pts · Δ -1.02 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 1.69 vol pts · Δ -0.74 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 7.82 vol pts · Δ +3.38 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 4.22 vol pts · Δ +5.44 vol pts

Relative value: XRP 1W IV 69.56% / 7D RV 78.65% · spread -9.09 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below); HYPE 1W IV 61.54% / 7D RV 63.91% · spread -2.37 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below); AVAX 1W IV 90.44% / 7D RV 106.36% · spread -15.92 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below); TRX 1W IV 18.06% / 7D RV 14.67% · spread +3.39 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below)

Vol

XRP 1W ATM IV 69.56% · Δ -0.30 vol pts

HYPE 1W ATM IV 61.54% · Δ -0.71 vol pts

AVAX 1W ATM IV 90.44% · Δ +14.42 vol pts

TRX 1W ATM IV 18.06% · Δ +0.40 vol pts

Skew

XRP 1W RR25 4.76 vol pts · Δ -1.02 vol pts

HYPE 1W RR25 1.69 vol pts · Δ -0.74 vol pts

AVAX 1W RR25 7.82 vol pts · Δ +3.38 vol pts

TRX 1W RR25 4.22 vol pts · Δ +5.44 vol pts

Wings

XRP 1W BF25 5.60 vol pts · Δ +0.40 vol pts

HYPE 1W BF25 3.19 vol pts · Δ -0.24 vol pts

AVAX 1W BF25 4.80 vol pts · Δ +0.56 vol pts

TRX 1W BF25 2.90 vol pts · Δ +1.12 vol pts

IV versus RV

XRP 1W IV 69.56% / 7D RV 78.65% · spread -9.09 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

HYPE 1W IV 61.54% / 7D RV 63.91% · spread -2.37 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

AVAX 1W IV 90.44% / 7D RV 106.36% · spread -15.92 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.82% coverage, longest gap 17 min; gaps may miss volatility

TRX 1W IV 18.06% / 7D RV 14.67% · spread +3.39 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: XRP 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC; HYPE 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC; AVAX 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC; TRX 29 Sept 2026, 21:59 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
XRP	78.65%	Partial	99.8313% / 99.5% required	16 min / 60 min maximum
HYPE	63.91%	Partial	99.8313% / 99.5% required	16 min / 60 min maximum
AVAX	106.36%	Partial	99.8214% / 99.5% required	17 min / 60 min maximum
TRX	14.67%	Partial	99.8313% / 99.5% required	16 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

XRP · Surface cutoff 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-28T21:59:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.67,
  "rv24hPercent": 80.26,
  "rv7dPercent": 78.65,
  "rv30dPercent": 72.58,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43145
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43145,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8727,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 53,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 69.56,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -9.09,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -10.7,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -3.02
}

HYPE · Surface cutoff 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-28T21:59:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -1.03,
  "rv24hPercent": 64.84,
  "rv7dPercent": 63.91,
  "rv30dPercent": 67.88,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43143
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43143,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8681,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 54,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 61.54,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -2.37,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -3.3,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -6.34
}

AVAX · Surface cutoff 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-28T21:59:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 10.38,
  "rv24hPercent": 134.91,
  "rv7dPercent": 106.36,
  "rv30dPercent": 88.28,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10062,
    "30d": 43144
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10062,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8214,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 17,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 17,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43144,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8704,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 54,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 90.44,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -15.92,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -44.47,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 2.16
}

TRX · Surface cutoff 29 Sept 2026, 21:59:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-29T21:59:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-28T21:59:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.18,
  "rv24hPercent": 12.78,
  "rv7dPercent": 14.67,
  "rv30dPercent": 15.35,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43145
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43145,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8727,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 53,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 18.06,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 3.39,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 5.28,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 2.71
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

An availability-aware daily comparison.

Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.

Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.

Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

1W ATM IV change

1W ATM IV level

1W RR25 level

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

Relevant market context identified

Sources relevant to the cross-sectional thesis

Altcoins report data

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

7D realised volatility · data quality

An availability-aware daily comparison.

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