Altcoin options show widening one-week skew differences between AVAX and TRX

01 · Market read

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

The AVAX–TRX one-week RR25 dispersion stood at the 93.5 percentile of its historical comparison, making the separation unusual. The broader volatility backdrop was mixed: HYPE one-week ATM IV rose 0.05 volatility points, while XRP one-week ATM IV fell 2.17 points, producing a HYPE–XRP one-week ATM IV daily-change range of 2.22 points. The skew ranking also changed within the complex. HYPE moved above TRX in the ranking of highest one-week call-minus-put RR25, while AVAX retained the highest reading. This distinguishes relative skew from the direction of volatility near the underlying price. One-year-minus-one-week ATM IV curve comparisons remain unavailable across the covered altcoins.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: 70.70 vol points; signed spread change +0.26 vol points. Historical percentile rank 97%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 31 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 2.22 vol points. Historical percentile rank 3%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 31 historical observations; minimum 20.

HYPE stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 1.61 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.

Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -2.17 points to +0.05 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 88.39%.

AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +10.55 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at +0.44 points, call-rich.

Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +3.12 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -14.05 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 70.70 vol pts.

TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +3.12 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -14.05 vol points. The range between these spreads is 17.17 vol points.

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 96.8%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 3.3%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 93.5%.

This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.

02 · Relative-value rankings

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

Metric	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1W ATM IV level	AVAX · 88.39	XRP · 68.51	HYPE · 62.79	TRX · 17.69
Daily 1W ATM IV change	HYPE · 0.05	AVAX · -1.43	TRX · -1.69	XRP · -2.17
1W IV minus 7d realised	TRX · 3.12	HYPE · -0.17	XRP · -5.69	AVAX · -14.05
Highest 1W RR25	AVAX · 10.55	XRP · 7.69	HYPE · 5.31 · up 1	TRX · 0.44 · down 1
Lowest 1W RR25	TRX · 0.44 · up 1	HYPE · 5.31 · down 1	XRP · 7.69	AVAX · 10.55
1Y minus 1W curve slope	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
24h spot-index return	HYPE · 2.62	TRX · 1.00	XRP · -0.16	AVAX · -1.27

HYPE

1W ATM IV change

+1.61 points from the group median

TRX

1W ATM IV level

-47.96 points from the group median

TRX

1W RR25 level

-6.06 points from the group median

AVAX

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

-11.12 points from the group median

03 · Altcoin scorecard

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

Asset	Spot 24h	Forward proxy	1W ATM	1W ATM Δ	7d RV	1W IV − 7d RV	IV/RV ratio	Spread percentile	1W RR25	Fit evidence	Status
XRP	-0.16%	$1.51	68.51%	-2.17 vol pts	74.20% · 99.8% coverage	-5.69 vol pts	0.92×	Unavailable	+7.69 vol pts	Accepted fit · 5 expiries	24h comparable
HYPE	+2.62%	$89.22	62.79%	+0.05 vol pts	62.96% · 99.8% coverage	-0.17 vol pts	1.00×	Unavailable	+5.31 vol pts	Accepted fit · 5 expiries	24h comparable
AVAX	-1.27%	$11.03	88.39%	-1.43 vol pts	102.44% · 99.8% coverage	-14.05 vol pts	0.86×	Unavailable	+10.55 vol pts	Accepted fit · 5 expiries	24h comparable
TRX	+1.00%	$0.34	17.69%	-1.69 vol pts	14.57% · 99.8% coverage	+3.12 vol pts	1.21×	Unavailable	+0.44 vol pts	Accepted fit · 5 expiries	24h comparable

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

Asset	1W ATM / Δ	1M ATM / Δ
XRP	68.51% / -2.17	68.14% / -1.64
HYPE	62.79% / +0.05	61.24% / +0.93
AVAX	88.39% / -1.43	81.33% / +1.37
TRX	17.69% / -1.69	20.24% / +1.90

05 · Catalyst check

No catalyst assigned.

No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Altcoins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

AVAX 1W RR25 10.55 vol pts · Δ +0.23 vol pts

TRX 1W RR25 0.44 vol pts · Δ -2.14 vol pts

AVAX minus TRX: signed spread +10.11 vol pts · spread Δ +2.37 vol pts

Original report summary

Derivasys data show the AVAX–TRX one-week call-minus-put RR25 gap widened by 2.33 volatility points to 10.11 points over the daily observation window ending September 30. AVAX one-week RR25 stood at 10.55 volatility points, while TRX one-week RR25 stood at 0.44 volatility points. Both remained call-rich, but TRX was close to neutral: the comparison separates the strength of relative call-side volatility rather than opposing call-rich and put-rich markets.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 68.51% · Δ -2.17 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 62.79% · Δ +0.05 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 88.39% · Δ -1.43 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 17.69% · Δ -1.69 vol pts

Skew: XRP 1W RR25 7.69 vol pts · Δ +5.04 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 5.31 vol pts · Δ +2.77 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 10.55 vol pts · Δ +0.23 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 0.44 vol pts · Δ -2.14 vol pts

Relative value: XRP 1W IV 68.51% / 7D RV 74.20% · spread -5.69 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below); HYPE 1W IV 62.79% / 7D RV 62.96% · spread -0.17 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below); AVAX 1W IV 88.39% / 7D RV 102.44% · spread -14.05 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below); TRX 1W IV 17.69% / 7D RV 14.57% · spread +3.12 vol pts (partial RV; coverage below)

Vol

XRP 1W ATM IV 68.51% · Δ -2.17 vol pts

HYPE 1W ATM IV 62.79% · Δ +0.05 vol pts

AVAX 1W ATM IV 88.39% · Δ -1.43 vol pts

TRX 1W ATM IV 17.69% · Δ -1.69 vol pts

Skew

XRP 1W RR25 7.69 vol pts · Δ +5.04 vol pts

HYPE 1W RR25 5.31 vol pts · Δ +2.77 vol pts

AVAX 1W RR25 10.55 vol pts · Δ +0.23 vol pts

TRX 1W RR25 0.44 vol pts · Δ -2.14 vol pts

Wings

XRP 1W BF25 7.39 vol pts · Δ +1.12 vol pts

HYPE 1W BF25 3.71 vol pts · Δ -0.15 vol pts

AVAX 1W BF25 4.85 vol pts · Δ +0.59 vol pts

TRX 1W BF25 1.98 vol pts · Δ +0.14 vol pts

IV versus RV

XRP 1W IV 68.51% / 7D RV 74.20% · spread -5.69 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

HYPE 1W IV 62.79% / 7D RV 62.96% · spread -0.17 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

AVAX 1W IV 88.39% / 7D RV 102.44% · spread -14.05 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.82% coverage, longest gap 17 min; gaps may miss volatility

TRX 1W IV 17.69% / 7D RV 14.57% · spread +3.12 vol pts · Partial RV: 99.83% coverage, longest gap 16 min; gaps may miss volatility

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: XRP 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 30 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
XRP	74.20%	Partial	99.8313% / 99.5% required	16 min / 60 min maximum
HYPE	62.96%	Partial	99.8313% / 99.5% required	16 min / 60 min maximum
AVAX	102.44%	Partial	99.8214% / 99.5% required	17 min / 60 min maximum
TRX	14.57%	Partial	99.8313% / 99.5% required	16 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

XRP · Surface cutoff 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.16,
  "rv24hPercent": 72.01,
  "rv7dPercent": 74.2,
  "rv30dPercent": 72.53,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43145
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43145,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8727,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 53,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 68.51,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -5.69,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -3.5,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -4.02
}

HYPE · Surface cutoff 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 2.62,
  "rv24hPercent": 67.89,
  "rv7dPercent": 62.96,
  "rv30dPercent": 67.88,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43143
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43143,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8681,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 54,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 62.79,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -0.17,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -5.1,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -5.09
}

AVAX · Surface cutoff 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -1.27,
  "rv24hPercent": 96.77,
  "rv7dPercent": 102.44,
  "rv30dPercent": 89.03,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10062,
    "30d": 43144
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10062,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8214,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 17,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 17,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43144,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8704,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 54,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 88.39,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -14.05,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -8.38,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -0.64
}

TRX · Surface cutoff 30 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Partial estimate: gaps may miss volatility.

{
  "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-29T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 1,
  "rv24hPercent": 15.03,
  "rv7dPercent": 14.57,
  "rv30dPercent": 15.29,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10063,
    "30d": 43145
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 10063,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8313,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 16,
      "missingIntervals": 1,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 16,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "partial",
      "observedReturns": 43145,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.8727,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 53,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 37,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 17.69,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 3.12,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 2.66,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 2.4
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

An availability-aware daily comparison.

Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.

Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.

Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.