TRX volatility rises while AVAX falls, narrowing their 1W IV gap

01 · Market read

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

Those opposing moves compressed the one-week ATM IV level gap from 62.11 to 49.36 volatility points. AVAX retained the highest volatility level and TRX the lowest across the four markets. XRP one-week ATM implied volatility fell 0.22 volatility points to 61.42%. HYPE one-week ATM implied volatility fell 3.79 volatility points to 58.35%, leaving XRP above HYPE in the level ranking. The frozen news search supplied no eligible context explaining this divergence, leaving the options moves unattributed. Seven-day realised volatility was unavailable for all four assets because return coverage and price gaps failed validation; comparable long-dated curve measures were also unavailable.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 49.36 vol points; signed spread change -12.75 vol points. Historical percentile rank 50%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 12.75 vol points. Historical percentile rank 87%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 10.07 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.

Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -4.69 points to +8.06 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 75.28%.

XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +5.59 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -2.47 points, put-rich.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 49.36 vol pts.

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 50.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 87.1%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 78.1%.

This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.

02 · Relative-value rankings

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

Metric	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1W ATM IV level	AVAX · 75.28	XRP · 61.42 · up 1	HYPE · 58.35 · down 1	TRX · 25.92
Daily 1W ATM IV change	TRX · 8.06	XRP · -0.22	HYPE · -3.79	AVAX · -4.69
1W IV minus 7d realised	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
Highest 1W RR25	XRP · 5.59 · up 3	AVAX · 5.44 · down 1	HYPE · 1.93	TRX · -2.47 · down 2
Lowest 1W RR25	TRX · -2.47 · up 2	HYPE · 1.93	AVAX · 5.44 · up 1	XRP · 5.59 · down 3
1Y minus 1W curve slope	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
24h spot-index return	HYPE · 2.36	AVAX · 1.69	XRP · 1.09	TRX · 0.41

TRX

1W ATM IV change

+10.07 points from the group median

TRX

1W ATM IV level

-33.97 points from the group median

TRX

1W RR25 level

-6.16 points from the group median

03 · Altcoin scorecard

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

Asset	Spot 24h	Forward proxy	1W ATM	1W ATM Δ	7d RV	1W IV − 7d RV	IV/RV ratio	Spread percentile	1W RR25	Fit evidence	Status
XRP	+1.09%	$1.50	61.42%	-0.22 vol pts	Unavailable · 97.3% coverage	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	+5.59 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
HYPE	+2.36%	$89.52	58.35%	-3.79 vol pts	Unavailable · 97.3% coverage	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	+1.93 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
AVAX	+1.69%	$11.11	75.28%	-4.69 vol pts	Unavailable · 97.3% coverage	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	+5.44 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
TRX	+0.41%	$0.34	25.92%	+8.06 vol pts	Unavailable · 97.3% coverage	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	-2.47 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

Asset	1W ATM / Δ	1M ATM / Δ
XRP	61.42% / -0.22	60.75% / -1.33
HYPE	58.35% / -3.79	59.70% / +1.23
AVAX	75.28% / -4.69	75.26% / -5.09
TRX	25.92% / +8.06	17.25% / -0.59

05 · Catalyst check

No catalyst assigned.

No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Altcoins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

TRX 1W ATM IV 25.92% · Δ +8.06 vol pts

AVAX 1W ATM IV 75.28% · Δ -4.69 vol pts

TRX minus AVAX: signed spread -49.36 vol pts · spread Δ +12.75 vol pts

Absolute current level gap: 49.36 vol pts

Daily-change dispersion: 12.75 vol pts

Original report summary

TRX and AVAX one-week ATM implied volatility changes were 12.75 volatility points apart over the daily window ending October 2 at 16:30 UTC: TRX rose 8.06 points and AVAX fell 4.69 points.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 61.42% · Δ -0.22 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 58.35% · Δ -3.79 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 75.28% · Δ -4.69 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 25.92% · Δ +8.06 vol pts

Skew: XRP 1W RR25 5.59 vol pts · Δ +3.31 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 1.93 vol pts · Δ -0.92 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 5.44 vol pts · Δ +0.61 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -2.47 vol pts · Δ -6.56 vol pts

IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 12.75 vol pts (TRX Δ +8.06 versus AVAX Δ -4.69 vol pts)

Vol

XRP 1W ATM IV 61.42% · Δ -0.22 vol pts

HYPE 1W ATM IV 58.35% · Δ -3.79 vol pts

AVAX 1W ATM IV 75.28% · Δ -4.69 vol pts

TRX 1W ATM IV 25.92% · Δ +8.06 vol pts

Skew

XRP 1W RR25 5.59 vol pts · Δ +3.31 vol pts

HYPE 1W RR25 1.93 vol pts · Δ -0.92 vol pts

AVAX 1W RR25 5.44 vol pts · Δ +0.61 vol pts

TRX 1W RR25 -2.47 vol pts · Δ -6.56 vol pts

Wings

XRP 1W BF25 4.53 vol pts · Δ -0.71 vol pts

HYPE 1W BF25 3.47 vol pts · Δ +0.06 vol pts

AVAX 1W BF25 3.76 vol pts · Δ -0.51 vol pts

TRX 1W BF25 0.27 vol pts · Δ -2.34 vol pts

IV versus RV

XRP Unavailable

HYPE Unavailable

AVAX Unavailable

TRX Unavailable

Unavailable readings: XRP IV versus RV; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: XRP 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 2 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
XRP	Unavailable	Unavailable	97.2817% / 99.5% required	247 min / 60 min maximum
HYPE	Unavailable	Unavailable	97.2817% / 99.5% required	247 min / 60 min maximum
AVAX	Unavailable	Unavailable	97.2718% / 99.5% required	247 min / 60 min maximum
TRX	Unavailable	Unavailable	97.2817% / 99.5% required	247 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

XRP · Surface cutoff 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2817% with 271 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 1.09,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1183,
    "7d": 9806,
    "30d": 42888
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1183,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 82.1528,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 82.1528% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 9806,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 97.2817,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 271,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2817% with 271 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 42888,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.2778,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 308,
      "missingIntervals": 4,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.2778% with 308 missing price minutes across 4 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 61.42,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

HYPE · Surface cutoff 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2817% with 271 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 2.36,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1183,
    "7d": 9806,
    "30d": 42886
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1183,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 82.1528,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 82.1528% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 9806,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 97.2817,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 271,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2817% with 271 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 42886,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.2731,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 309,
      "missingIntervals": 5,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.2731% with 309 missing price minutes across 5 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 58.35,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

AVAX · Surface cutoff 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2718% with 272 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 1.69,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1183,
    "7d": 9805,
    "30d": 42887
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1183,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 82.1528,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 82.1528% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 9805,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 97.2718,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 272,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2718% with 272 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 42887,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.2755,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 309,
      "missingIntervals": 4,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.2755% with 309 missing price minutes across 4 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 75.28,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

TRX · Surface cutoff 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2817% with 271 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-01T16:30:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.41,
  "rv24hPercent": null,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1183,
    "7d": 9806,
    "30d": 42888
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 1183,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 82.1528,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 255,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "24h RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 82.1528% with 255 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 9806,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 97.2817,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 271,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 97.2817% with 271 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 42888,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.2778,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 308,
      "missingIntervals": 4,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 247,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.2778% with 308 missing price minutes across 4 intervals and a largest gap of 247 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 25.92,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

An availability-aware daily comparison.

Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.

Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.

Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

1W ATM IV change

1W ATM IV level

1W RR25 level

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

No catalyst assigned.

Altcoins report data

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

7D realised volatility · data quality

An availability-aware daily comparison.

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