Altcoin options: TRX and AVAX diverge in implied versus realised volatility

01 · Market read

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

The level comparison captures current dispersion across the covered options markets. A prior implied-versus-realised spread is unavailable, so no widening or narrowing is asserted. The implied readings and realised estimates describe different measures of volatility; the gap alone does not establish a trading opportunity or a news catalyst.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: 62.63 vol points; signed spread change +13.17 vol points. Historical percentile rank 84%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 13.17 vol points. Historical percentile rank 87%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.

TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 7.30 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.

Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -8.82 points to +4.35 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 79.71%.

XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +7.04 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -2.90 points, put-rich.

Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +1.97 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -15.32 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 62.63 vol pts.

TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +1.97 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -15.32 vol points. The range between these spreads is 17.29 vol points.

Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 84.4%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 87.1%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 87.5%.

This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.

02 · Relative-value rankings

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

Metric	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1W ATM IV level	AVAX · 79.71	XRP · 59.42	HYPE · 55.90	TRX · 17.08
Daily 1W ATM IV change	AVAX · 4.35	HYPE · -1.41	XRP · -1.63	TRX · -8.82
1W IV minus 7d realised	TRX · 1.97	XRP · -7.15	HYPE · -10.51	AVAX · -15.32
Highest 1W RR25	XRP · 7.04 · up 1	AVAX · 4.73 · down 1	HYPE · -1.50	TRX · -2.90
Lowest 1W RR25	TRX · -2.90	HYPE · -1.50	AVAX · 4.73 · up 1	XRP · 7.04 · down 1
1Y minus 1W curve slope	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
24h spot-index return	AVAX · 0.64	HYPE · 0.40	TRX · -0.11	XRP · -0.31

TRX

1W ATM IV change

-7.30 points from the group median

TRX

1W ATM IV level

-40.58 points from the group median

XRP

1W RR25 level

+5.42 points from the group median

TRX

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

+10.80 points from the group median

03 · Altcoin scorecard

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

Asset	Spot 24h	Forward proxy	1W ATM	1W ATM Δ	7d RV	1W IV − 7d RV	IV/RV ratio	Spread percentile	1W RR25	Fit evidence	Status
XRP	-0.31%	$1.49	59.42%	-1.63 vol pts	66.57%	-7.15 vol pts	0.89×	Unavailable	+7.04 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
HYPE	+0.40%	$89.21	55.90%	-1.41 vol pts	66.41%	-10.51 vol pts	0.84×	Unavailable	-1.50 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
AVAX	+0.64%	$11.13	79.71%	+4.35 vol pts	95.03%	-15.32 vol pts	0.84×	Unavailable	+4.73 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
TRX	-0.11%	$0.34	17.08%	-8.82 vol pts	15.11%	+1.97 vol pts	1.13×	Unavailable	-2.90 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

Asset	1W ATM / Δ	1M ATM / Δ
XRP	59.42% / -1.63	61.02% / +0.22
HYPE	55.90% / -1.41	57.28% / -2.19
AVAX	79.71% / +4.35	77.31% / +1.83
TRX	17.08% / -8.82	17.72% / +0.45

05 · Catalyst check

No catalyst assigned.

No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Altcoins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

XRP 1W IV 59.42% / 7D RV 66.57% · spread -7.15 vol pts

HYPE 1W IV 55.90% / 7D RV 66.41% · spread -10.51 vol pts

AVAX 1W IV 79.71% / 7D RV 95.03% · spread -15.32 vol pts

TRX 1W IV 17.08% / 7D RV 15.11% · spread +1.97 vol pts

Original report summary

Across TRX and AVAX, the 1W ATM implied volatility minus 7D realised volatility comparison spanned 17.29 volatility points at the October 3 cutoff. This is a current cross-asset level comparison; a prior spread is unavailable, so it does not measure a change over time.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 59.42% · Δ -1.63 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.90% · Δ -1.41 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 79.71% · Δ +4.35 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 17.08% · Δ -8.82 vol pts

Skew: XRP 1W RR25 7.04 vol pts · Δ +2.28 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 -1.50 vol pts · Δ -4.17 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 4.73 vol pts · Δ -1.01 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -2.90 vol pts · Δ -0.44 vol pts

Relative value: XRP 1W IV 59.42% / 7D RV 66.57% · spread -7.15 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 55.90% / 7D RV 66.41% · spread -10.51 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 79.71% / 7D RV 95.03% · spread -15.32 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 17.08% / 7D RV 15.11% · spread +1.97 vol pts

Vol

XRP 1W ATM IV 59.42% · Δ -1.63 vol pts

HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.90% · Δ -1.41 vol pts

AVAX 1W ATM IV 79.71% · Δ +4.35 vol pts

TRX 1W ATM IV 17.08% · Δ -8.82 vol pts

Skew

XRP 1W RR25 7.04 vol pts · Δ +2.28 vol pts

HYPE 1W RR25 -1.50 vol pts · Δ -4.17 vol pts

AVAX 1W RR25 4.73 vol pts · Δ -1.01 vol pts

TRX 1W RR25 -2.90 vol pts · Δ -0.44 vol pts

Wings

XRP 1W BF25 4.46 vol pts · Δ -0.32 vol pts

HYPE 1W BF25 2.16 vol pts · Δ -1.27 vol pts

AVAX 1W BF25 3.55 vol pts · Δ -0.09 vol pts

TRX 1W BF25 3.16 vol pts · Δ +2.86 vol pts

IV versus RV

XRP 1W IV 59.42% / 7D RV 66.57% · spread -7.15 vol pts

HYPE 1W IV 55.90% / 7D RV 66.41% · spread -10.51 vol pts

AVAX 1W IV 79.71% / 7D RV 95.03% · spread -15.32 vol pts

TRX 1W IV 17.08% / 7D RV 15.11% · spread +1.97 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: XRP 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC; HYPE 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC; AVAX 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC; TRX 3 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
XRP	66.57%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum
HYPE	66.41%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum
AVAX	95.03%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum
TRX	15.11%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

XRP · Surface cutoff 03 Oct 2026, 17:58:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-03T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-02T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.31,
  "rv24hPercent": 52.8,
  "rv7dPercent": 66.57,
  "rv30dPercent": 71.56,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 59.42,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -7.15,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 6.62,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -12.14
}

HYPE · Surface cutoff 03 Oct 2026, 17:58:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-03T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-02T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.4,
  "rv24hPercent": 57.03,
  "rv7dPercent": 66.41,
  "rv30dPercent": 68.12,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 55.9,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -10.51,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -1.13,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -12.22
}

AVAX · Surface cutoff 03 Oct 2026, 17:58:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-03T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-02T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.64,
  "rv24hPercent": 71.63,
  "rv7dPercent": 95.03,
  "rv30dPercent": 90.56,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 79.71,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": -15.32,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 8.08,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": -10.85
}

TRX · Surface cutoff 03 Oct 2026, 17:58:00 UTC.

{
  "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-10-03T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-10-02T17:58:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.11,
  "rv24hPercent": 13.17,
  "rv7dPercent": 15.11,
  "rv30dPercent": 15.1,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10080,
    "30d": 43200
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 10080,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 43200,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 17.08,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": 1.97,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 3.91,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": 1.98
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

An availability-aware daily comparison.

Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.

Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.

Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

1W ATM IV change

1W ATM IV level

1W RR25 level

1W IV minus 7D realised volatility

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

No catalyst assigned.

Altcoins report data

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

7D realised volatility · data quality

An availability-aware daily comparison.

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