01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
Relative volatility levels remained widely dispersed: AVAX's 1W ATM IV was 73.36%, compared with TRX's 21.17%, leaving an unsigned 52.19 volatility-point range. That 1W ATM IV level range narrowed by 0.22 volatility points against the October 6 cutoff. HYPE and XRP sat between those endpoints, with 1W ATM IV levels of 55.95% and 52.16%, respectively.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 52.19 vol points; absolute gap change -0.22 vol points. Historical percentile rank 64%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 0.97 vol points. Historical percentile rank 0%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
XRP stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 0.50 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from +0.09 points to +1.06 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 73.36%.
AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +4.38 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -3.56 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +6.86 points and HYPE had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -5.24 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 52.19 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +6.86 vol points; HYPE has the lowest at -5.24 vol points. The range between these spreads is 12.10 vol points.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 64.3%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 0.0%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 78.6%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 73.36 | HYPE · 55.95 | XRP · 52.16 | TRX · 21.17 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 1.06 | HYPE · 0.82 | TRX · 0.31 | AVAX · 0.09 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 6.86 | XRP · 3.35 | AVAX · 2.31 | HYPE · -5.24 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | AVAX · 4.38 | HYPE · 3.13 · up 1 | XRP · 2.11 · down 1 | TRX · -3.56 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -3.56 | XRP · 2.11 · up 1 | HYPE · 3.13 · down 1 | AVAX · 4.38 |
| 24h spot-index return | TRX · -0.23 | AVAX · -1.13 | HYPE · -4.16 | XRP · -4.39 |
1W ATM IV change
+0.50 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-32.88 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-6.18 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-8.07 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -4.39% | $1.44 | 52.16% | +1.06 vol pts | 48.81% | +3.35 vol pts | 1.07× | Unavailable | +2.11 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -4.16% | $88.43 | 55.95% | +0.82 vol pts | 61.19% | -5.24 vol pts | 0.91× | Unavailable | +3.13 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -1.13% | $11.34 | 73.36% | +0.09 vol pts | 71.05% | +2.31 vol pts | 1.03× | Unavailable | +4.38 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.23% | $0.34 | 21.17% | +0.31 vol pts | 14.31% | +6.86 vol pts | 1.48× | Unavailable | -3.56 vol pts | Accepted fit · 5 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 52.16% / +1.06 | 53.78% / -1.00 |
| HYPE | 55.95% / +0.82 | 56.57% / +0.32 |
| AVAX | 73.36% / +0.09 | 73.02% / +0.14 |
| TRX | 21.17% / +0.31 | 19.45% / +0.66 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01Firelight Begins Writing DeFi Cover Backed By Staked XRPThe Defiant ·
Typed category: protocol. The Defiant reports first DeFi cover positions backed by staked XRP. Eligible provisional single-source context; do not infer an options-price effect or completed audits.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 7 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
XRP 1W ATM IV 52.16% · Δ +1.06 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 73.36% · Δ +0.09 vol pts
XRP minus AVAX: signed spread -21.20 vol pts · spread Δ +0.97 vol pts
Absolute current level gap: 21.20 vol pts
Daily-change dispersion: 0.97 vol pts
Original report summary
The XRP–AVAX range of daily 1W ATM implied-volatility changes was just 0.97 volatility points, according to Derivasys data. XRP's 1W ATM implied volatility increased 1.06 volatility points, while AVAX's 1W ATM implied volatility increased 0.09 volatility points. The comparison runs from October 6 to October 7 at 16:30 UTC. HYPE and TRX also registered increases, while widely separated volatility levels persisted. The Defiant's staked-XRP DeFi cover reporting provides protocol context.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 52.16% · Δ +1.06 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.95% · Δ +0.82 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 73.36% · Δ +0.09 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 21.17% · Δ +0.31 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 2.11 vol pts · Δ -2.79 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 3.13 vol pts · Δ +1.84 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 4.38 vol pts · Δ -2.18 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -3.56 vol pts · Δ -1.81 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 52.16% / 7D RV 48.81% · spread +3.35 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 55.95% / 7D RV 61.19% · spread -5.24 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 73.36% / 7D RV 71.05% · spread +2.31 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 21.17% / 7D RV 14.31% · spread +6.86 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 52.16% · Δ +1.06 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.95% · Δ +0.82 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 73.36% · Δ +0.09 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 21.17% · Δ +0.31 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 2.11 vol pts · Δ -2.79 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 3.13 vol pts · Δ +1.84 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 4.38 vol pts · Δ -2.18 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -3.56 vol pts · Δ -1.81 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.93 vol pts · Δ -0.65 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 3.11 vol pts · Δ +0.48 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.80 vol pts · Δ -0.32 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 2.00 vol pts · Δ +0.41 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 52.16% / 7D RV 48.81% · spread +3.35 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 55.95% / 7D RV 61.19% · spread -5.24 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 73.36% / 7D RV 71.05% · spread +2.31 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 21.17% / 7D RV 14.31% · spread +6.86 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 7 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 7 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 7 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 7 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 48.81% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 61.19% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 71.05% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 14.31% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 07 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 07 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 07 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 07 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.