01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The cross-sectional 1W RR25 level range compressed to 4.76 volatility points from 7.93 volatility points at the prior cutoff, with HYPE and XRP defining the current endpoints. Thus, widening ATM IV dispersion coincided with narrowing dispersion in call-minus-put implied volatility. Comparisons of one-week ATM implied volatility with seven-day realised volatility remain unavailable across all four constituents.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 59.18 vol points; absolute gap change +7.01 vol points. Historical percentile rank 68%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 7.01 vol points. Historical percentile rank 64%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.97 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -1.76 points to +5.25 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 78.59%.
HYPE had the highest 1W RR25 at +2.29 points, call-rich; XRP had the lowest at -2.47 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +5.87 points and HYPE had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -2.19 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 59.18 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +5.87 vol points; HYPE has the lowest at -2.19 vol points. The range between these spreads is 8.06 vol points.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 67.9%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 64.3%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 46.4%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 78.59 | HYPE · 56.46 | XRP · 56.36 | TRX · 19.41 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · 5.25 | XRP · 3.92 | HYPE · 0.51 | TRX · -1.76 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 5.87 | XRP · 5.35 | AVAX · 2.61 | HYPE · -2.19 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | HYPE · 2.29 · up 1 | TRX · 2.22 · up 2 | AVAX · 1.72 · down 2 | XRP · -2.47 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | XRP · -2.47 · up 1 | AVAX · 1.72 · up 2 | TRX · 2.22 · down 2 | HYPE · 2.29 · down 1 |
| 24h spot-index return | TRX · -0.65 | HYPE · -4.55 | XRP · -5.69 | AVAX · -10.76 |
1W ATM IV change
-3.97 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-37.00 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-4.44 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-6.17 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -5.69% | $1.35 | 56.36% | +3.92 vol pts | 51.01% | +5.35 vol pts | 1.10× | Unavailable | -2.47 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -4.55% | $84.40 | 56.46% | +0.51 vol pts | 58.65% | -2.19 vol pts | 0.96× | Unavailable | +2.29 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -10.76% | $10.07 | 78.59% | +5.25 vol pts | 75.98% | +2.61 vol pts | 1.03× | Unavailable | +1.72 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.65% | $0.33 | 19.41% | -1.76 vol pts | 13.54% | +5.87 vol pts | 1.43× | Unavailable | +2.22 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 56.36% / +3.92 | 54.64% / +0.64 |
| HYPE | 56.46% / +0.51 | 56.63% / +0.06 |
| AVAX | 78.59% / +5.25 | 72.83% / -0.12 |
| TRX | 19.41% / -1.76 | 18.23% / -1.22 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01Hyperliquid Labs-Labeled Wallet Distributes $330 Million in HYPEThe Defiant ·
Canonical MCP category: market. The Defiant reports movements from a labelled wallet; preserve attribution and do not infer a sale or confirmed ownership.
- 02Hyperliquid Confirms Singapore Base but Says It Has No MAS LicenseThe Defiant ·
Canonical MCP category: market. The Defiant reports Hyperliquid's location and licensing position; its cited FT account is not a separately returned official or independently verified source.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
AVAX 1W ATM IV 78.59% · Δ +5.25 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 19.41% · Δ -1.76 vol pts
AVAX minus TRX: signed spread +59.18 vol pts · spread Δ +7.01 vol pts
Absolute current level gap: 59.18 vol pts
Daily-change dispersion: 7.01 vol pts
Original report summary
AVAX and TRX's one-week ATM IV level dispersion widened to 59.18 volatility points: AVAX one-week ATM IV stood at 78.59%, versus TRX at 19.41%. This 1W relative volatility comparison shows an expanding separation between the highest and lowest implied-volatility levels in the four-coin complex, alongside a narrower cross-sectional skew range.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 56.36% · Δ +3.92 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 56.46% · Δ +0.51 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 78.59% · Δ +5.25 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 19.41% · Δ -1.76 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 -2.47 vol pts · Δ -4.66 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 2.29 vol pts · Δ -0.84 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 1.72 vol pts · Δ -2.66 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 2.22 vol pts · Δ +5.77 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 56.36% / 7D RV 51.01% · spread +5.35 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 56.46% / 7D RV 58.65% · spread -2.19 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 78.59% / 7D RV 75.98% · spread +2.61 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 19.41% / 7D RV 13.54% · spread +5.87 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 56.36% · Δ +3.92 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 56.46% · Δ +0.51 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 78.59% · Δ +5.25 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 19.41% · Δ -1.76 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 -2.47 vol pts · Δ -4.66 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 2.29 vol pts · Δ -0.84 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 1.72 vol pts · Δ -2.66 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 2.22 vol pts · Δ +5.77 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 4.39 vol pts · Δ +0.44 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 3.61 vol pts · Δ +0.50 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.20 vol pts · Δ -0.60 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 2.14 vol pts · Δ +0.13 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 56.36% / 7D RV 51.01% · spread +5.35 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 56.46% / 7D RV 58.65% · spread -2.19 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 78.59% / 7D RV 75.98% · spread +2.61 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 19.41% / 7D RV 13.54% · spread +5.87 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC; HYPE 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC; AVAX 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC; TRX 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 51.01% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 58.65% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 75.98% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 13.54% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.