01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
Skew dispersion remained evident across constituents despite the shared decline in ATM volatility. The cross-sectional 1W RR25 range was 3.36 volatility points. The comparison with recent realised movement also split the constituents: 1W ATM IV minus seven-day realised volatility was highest for TRX at 6.40 volatility points and lowest for AVAX at -3.59 volatility points, an unsigned cross-sectional range of 9.99 volatility points.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 53.90 vol points; absolute gap change -4.32 vol points. Historical percentile rank 64%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.32 vol points. Historical percentile rank 32%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
AVAX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.36 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -5.56 points to -1.24 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 72.86%.
AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +3.07 points, call-rich; XRP had the lowest at -0.29 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +6.40 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -3.59 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 53.90 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +6.40 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -3.59 vol points. The range between these spreads is 9.99 vol points.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 64.3%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 32.1%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 28.6%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint event comparison
Unavailable: 10 complete historical observations; at least 20 are required.
Each observation contains aligned 24-hour spot-index returns and 1W ATM IV, RR25 and BF25 changes for every covered asset. Matching requires the same direction category in every dimension; near-flat tolerances are ±0.10% spot, ±0.25 ATM IV points, and ±0.10 RR25/BF25 points.
Historical window: 2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00. No joint rarity percentile is estimated. Causality is not assessed.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint comparisons
Each comparison uses its own complete aligned daily history. Counts describe matching direction patterns and simultaneous magnitude exceedances; no joint rarity percentile or causal claim is made.
Spot and ATM IV
Unavailable: insufficient-history. Eligible history: 8; minimum 20.
History window: 2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 735606d0caf2b49547d351ba926e9cea3b14decebc51ab0a0f53e3125d8e9a45
invalidMeasurements: 36; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; duplicatePeriods: 11; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 3; incompatibleClocks: 6
ATM IV and RR25
Unavailable: insufficient-history. Eligible history: 14; minimum 20.
History window: 2026-09-03T16:48:00+00:00 to 2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 94fed5fb8a90c6a37896b31d731c8b8f2c7a7b8e6a99b21788c5843f441510c9
invalidMeasurements: 8; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; duplicatePeriods: 19; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 5; incompatibleClocks: 18
Spot, ATM IV, RR25 and BF25
Unavailable: insufficient-history. Eligible history: 8; minimum 20.
History window: 2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-09-30T16:30:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 63d5d9b034b81baefa5a1838e60c973f365539c7f1582cd978a6bddbb398cb99
invalidMeasurements: 36; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; duplicatePeriods: 11; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 3; incompatibleClocks: 6
One-month minus one-week ATM IV
Term-structure regime changes
A genuine sign crossing requires strictly opposite nonzero endpoints. An exactly zero slope is a zero touch. Version 2 separately requires both endpoints to clear opposite sides of ±0.50 volatility points for a material regime change. This deadband is provisional, not fit-calibrated or a rarity claim.
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | Regime evidence | History eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -0.55 | +3.49 | +4.04 | inverted → upward-sloping; genuine sign crossing; materiality unavailable | 16 observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. |
| HYPE | -1.04 | +0.11 | +1.15 | inverted → upward-sloping; genuine sign crossing; materiality unavailable | 16 observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. |
| AVAX | -5.47 | -0.07 | +5.40 | inverted; no sign crossing | 16 observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. |
| TRX | -2.00 | +0.03 | +2.03 | inverted → upward-sloping; genuine sign crossing; materiality unavailable | 16 observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. |
Per-asset history receipts
XRP: 9d7dc38d31904de9645db0c59518b73186578f36283f4ffa3c7b54f13ee0e3f0
HYPE: e9b7066a1a74160019e2c0211bde44360ae6c1553e67846d29641c922af8c5ce
AVAX: 9d43e565c01d6f2335fc9a5e6f7003e1de9a8e3e27db299bf41cf983bbe1b8cf
TRX: 329fc1eec7a3db15245f23f44f6f2c2546e59585234856bd297b2925c6adf181
Daily report context · 2026-10-09
Coordinated IV decline with broad spot gains
Report cutoff: . Comparison snapshot: .
Raw 24-hour spot signs: 6 higher, 1 lower, 0 exactly flat, 0 unavailable. 6 of seven moved higher.
With ±0.10% near-flat tolerance: 6 higher, 1 lower, 0 near-flat, 0 unavailable.
All seven 1W ATM IV daily changes
Volatility points
Current: 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Previous: 8 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Exact 24-hour spot-index returns
Percent
Current: 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Previous: 8 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
The seven-asset measurement meets the stored quantitative prerequisites. IV qualification requires a common nonzero direction and at least 1.00 volatility points in every asset; publication also depends on materiality and editorial checks.
Historical eligibility: 0 complete observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. Causality is not assessed.
Read the dated report and source evidence.
Event and source receipts
Event ID: market-wide-iv-spot-1808bed0978f36529708fe47520c79acfc1c3cd40b722076cc0f667001d431b6
Current source SHA-256: b95db5f31cafbcc6648b46e3be34774949b2074a707b37a98f62e78a46ee4448
Historical source SHA-256: 8d4c7b183f8bedaffc5f67a36876ed576531071c3b41c0fe561dd9c2aa02d566
History window: Unavailable to Unavailable.
invalidMeasurements: 32; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; incompatibleWindowLength: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 72.86 | HYPE · 55.10 | XRP · 51.57 | TRX · 18.96 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | TRX · -1.24 | HYPE · -2.64 | XRP · -3.76 | AVAX · -5.56 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 6.40 | XRP · 1.07 | HYPE · -1.99 | AVAX · -3.59 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | AVAX · 3.07 · up 1 | TRX · 1.26 · down 1 | HYPE · 0.97 | XRP · -0.29 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | XRP · -0.29 | HYPE · 0.97 | TRX · 1.26 · up 1 | AVAX · 3.07 · down 1 |
| 24h spot-index return | XRP · 2.97 | AVAX · 2.60 | HYPE · 1.63 | TRX · -0.24 |
1W ATM IV change
-2.36 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-34.38 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+1.95 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+6.86 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +2.97% | $1.39 | 51.57% | -3.76 vol pts | 50.50% | +1.07 vol pts | 1.02× | Unavailable | -0.29 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +1.63% | $85.22 | 55.10% | -2.64 vol pts | 57.09% | -1.99 vol pts | 0.97× | Unavailable | +0.97 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +2.60% | $10.23 | 72.86% | -5.56 vol pts | 76.45% | -3.59 vol pts | 0.95× | Unavailable | +3.07 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.24% | $0.33 | 18.96% | -1.24 vol pts | 12.56% | +6.40 vol pts | 1.51× | Unavailable | +1.26 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 51.57% / -3.76 | 55.06% / +0.28 |
| HYPE | 55.10% / -2.64 | 55.21% / -1.49 |
| AVAX | 72.86% / -5.56 | 72.79% / -0.16 |
| TRX | 18.96% / -1.24 | 18.99% / +0.79 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01XRP Ledger adds new controls for banks, stablecoins and tokenized fundsCoinDesk ·
Selected context, attributed to CoinDesk as single-source reporting. Source-backed typed category: protocol; canonical category preserved.
- 02Delayed Sends - XRPCoinbase ·
Selected operational context: Coinbase reports the incident resolved. Constituent XRP reaction query succeeded but returned reaction_available=false and reaction=null; unavailable measurements are not zero. Source-backed typed category: broader_crypto.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
AVAX 1W ATM IV 72.86% · Δ -5.56 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 18.96% · Δ -1.24 vol pts
AVAX minus TRX: signed spread +53.90 vol pts · spread Δ -4.32 vol pts
Comparison scope: selected range endpoints.
Absolute current level gap: 53.90 vol pts
Daily-change dispersion: 4.32 vol pts
Original report summary
AVAX’s daily 1W ATM implied-volatility decline of 5.56 volatility points contrasted with TRX’s 1.24-point decline, leaving a 4.32-point cross-sectional range in changes. Derivasys snapshots at 16:56 UTC on October 8 and 9 show lower 1W ATM IV across XRP, HYPE, AVAX and TRX, with the largest decline occurring in the highest-volatility constituent.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 51.57% · Δ -3.76 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.10% · Δ -2.64 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 72.86% · Δ -5.56 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 18.96% · Δ -1.24 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 -0.29 vol pts · Δ +0.65 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 0.97 vol pts · Δ -0.63 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 3.07 vol pts · Δ +1.42 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 1.26 vol pts · Δ -1.51 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 51.57% / 7D RV 50.50% · spread +1.07 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 55.10% / 7D RV 57.09% · spread -1.99 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 72.86% / 7D RV 76.45% · spread -3.59 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 18.96% / 7D RV 12.56% · spread +6.40 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 51.57% · Δ -3.76 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.10% · Δ -2.64 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 72.86% · Δ -5.56 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 18.96% · Δ -1.24 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 -0.29 vol pts · Δ +0.65 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 0.97 vol pts · Δ -0.63 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 3.07 vol pts · Δ +1.42 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 1.26 vol pts · Δ -1.51 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.89 vol pts · Δ +0.47 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 3.05 vol pts · Δ -0.15 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.17 vol pts · Δ +0.22 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 2.26 vol pts · Δ +0.07 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 51.57% / 7D RV 50.50% · spread +1.07 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 55.10% / 7D RV 57.09% · spread -1.99 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 72.86% / 7D RV 76.45% · spread -3.59 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 18.96% / 7D RV 12.56% · spread +6.40 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC; HYPE 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC; AVAX 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC; TRX 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 50.50% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 57.09% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 76.45% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 12.56% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.