01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The cross-sectional 1W RR25 level range widened from 1.18 volatility points at the prior cutoff to 5.13 volatility points. XRP had the highest 1W call-minus-put RR25 level and TRX the lowest, showing opposing call-side and put-side tilts within the group.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 51.92 vol points; absolute gap change +0.77 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 3.27 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 1.64 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -1.47 points to +1.80 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 72.49%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +3.52 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -1.61 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +8.53 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -7.54 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 51.92 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +8.53 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -7.54 vol points. The range between these spreads is 16.07 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint event comparison
Unavailable: 12 complete historical observations; at least 20 are required.
Each observation contains aligned 24-hour spot-index returns and 1W ATM IV, RR25 and BF25 changes for every covered asset. Matching requires the same direction category in every dimension; near-flat tolerances are ±0.10% spot, ±0.25 ATM IV points, and ±0.10 RR25/BF25 points.
Historical window: 2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00. No joint rarity percentile is estimated. Causality is not assessed.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint comparisons
Each comparison uses its own complete aligned daily history. Counts describe matching direction patterns and simultaneous magnitude exceedances; no joint rarity percentile or causal claim is made.
Spot and ATM IV
Unavailable: the stored comparison receipt does not validate against its source measurements.
ATM IV and RR25
Unavailable: the stored comparison receipt does not validate against its source measurements.
Spot, ATM IV, RR25 and BF25
Unavailable: the stored comparison receipt does not validate against its source measurements.
One-month minus one-week ATM IV
Term-structure regime changes
A genuine sign crossing requires strictly opposite nonzero endpoints. An exactly zero slope is a zero touch. Version 2 separately requires both endpoints to clear opposite sides of ±0.50 volatility points for a material regime change. This deadband is provisional, not fit-calibrated or a rarity claim.
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | Regime evidence | History eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Stored receipt does not validate | Unavailable |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Stored receipt does not validate | Unavailable |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Stored receipt does not validate | Unavailable |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Stored receipt does not validate | Unavailable |
Per-asset history receipts
XRP: Unavailable
HYPE: Unavailable
AVAX: Unavailable
TRX: Unavailable
Daily report context · 2026-10-13
Seven-asset daily observations
Report cutoff: . Comparison snapshot: .
Raw 24-hour spot signs: 1 higher, 6 lower, 0 exactly flat, 0 unavailable. 6 of seven moved lower.
With ±0.10% near-flat tolerance: 1 higher, 6 lower, 0 near-flat, 0 unavailable.
All seven 1W ATM IV daily changes
Volatility points
Current: 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Previous: 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Exact 24-hour spot-index returns
Percent
Current: 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Previous: 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The seven-asset measurement does not meet the stored quantitative prerequisites. IV qualification requires a common nonzero direction and at least 1.00 volatility points in every asset; publication also depends on materiality and editorial checks.
Historical eligibility: 19 complete observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. Causality is not assessed.
Read the dated report and source evidence.
Event and source receipts
Event ID: market-wide-iv-spot-49b80a90cc5c209a818426f35866e0263756d9e38ae92491594f56d68ec46906
Current source SHA-256: 377ffecf18dddf47a02b228af96854afa8645718c23ee191c7d1bd9eee4c4fbd
Historical source SHA-256: 80d3a21dc42661e32b504a6e317d7dc6575d584c80209d2ce82a2f63cca066ca
History window: 2026-09-03T16:48:00+00:00 to 2026-10-09T16:56:00+00:00.
conflictingDays: 8; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 46; incompatibleWindowLength: 0; invalidMeasurements: 224; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 7
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 72.49 | HYPE · 55.64 | XRP · 53.22 | TRX · 20.57 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 1.80 | HYPE · 1.04 | AVAX · -0.70 | TRX · -1.47 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 8.53 | XRP · 1.31 | HYPE · -0.89 | AVAX · -7.54 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 3.52 · up 2 | AVAX · 0.29 · down 1 | HYPE · -0.36 · down 1 | TRX · -1.61 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -1.61 | HYPE · -0.36 · up 1 | AVAX · 0.29 · up 1 | XRP · 3.52 · down 2 |
| 24h spot-index return | XRP · -0.18 | TRX · -1.13 | HYPE · -3.44 | AVAX · -3.67 |
1W ATM IV change
-1.64 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-33.86 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+3.56 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+8.32 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -0.18% | $1.37 | 53.22% | +1.80 vol pts | 51.91% | +1.31 vol pts | 1.03× | Unavailable | +3.52 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -3.44% | $81.48 | 55.64% | +1.04 vol pts | 56.53% | -0.89 vol pts | 0.98× | Unavailable | -0.36 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -3.67% | $10.29 | 72.49% | -0.70 vol pts | 80.03% | -7.54 vol pts | 0.91× | Unavailable | +0.29 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -1.13% | $0.33 | 20.57% | -1.47 vol pts | 12.04% | +8.53 vol pts | 1.71× | Unavailable | -1.61 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 53.22% / +1.80 | 53.86% / -0.73 |
| HYPE | 55.64% / +1.04 | 55.02% / -0.95 |
| AVAX | 72.49% / -0.70 | 70.23% / -1.80 |
| TRX | 20.57% / -1.47 | 18.55% / -3.70 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01Ripple, Stripe-owned Privy partner to bring embedded wallets to XRP LedgerThe Block ·
The Block reports that developers can build XRPL wallets into apps through Privy, supporting XRP and RLUSD.
- 02Ripple-Backed Evernorth Hits Nasdaq Holding 473 Million XRP Worth Far Less Than It PaidDecrypt ·
Decrypt reports the start of XRPN trading after Evernorth's SPAC merger, with 473 million XRP held and substantial SPAC redemptions.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
XRP 1W ATM IV 53.22% · Δ +1.80 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 20.57% · Δ -1.47 vol pts
XRP minus TRX: signed spread +32.65 vol pts · spread Δ +3.27 vol pts
Comparison scope: selected range endpoints.
Absolute current level gap: 32.65 vol pts
Daily-change dispersion: 3.27 vol pts
Original report summary
Altcoin 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion stands at 3.27 volatility points between XRP's increase of 1.80 volatility points and TRX's decrease of 1.47 volatility points. The comparison runs from October 12 to October 13 at 16:30 UTC. Opposing moves across the four constituents accompany a wider range of 1W skew levels.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 53.22% · Δ +1.80 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.64% · Δ +1.04 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 72.49% · Δ -0.70 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 20.57% · Δ -1.47 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 3.52 vol pts · Δ +3.88 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 -0.36 vol pts · Δ -0.10 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 0.29 vol pts · Δ -0.34 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -1.61 vol pts · Δ -1.06 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 53.22% / 7D RV 51.91% · spread +1.31 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 55.64% / 7D RV 56.53% · spread -0.89 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 72.49% / 7D RV 80.03% · spread -7.54 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 20.57% / 7D RV 12.04% · spread +8.53 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 53.22% · Δ +1.80 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.64% · Δ +1.04 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 72.49% · Δ -0.70 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 20.57% · Δ -1.47 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 3.52 vol pts · Δ +3.88 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 -0.36 vol pts · Δ -0.10 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 0.29 vol pts · Δ -0.34 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -1.61 vol pts · Δ -1.06 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.56 vol pts · Δ 0.00 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 2.52 vol pts · Δ -0.28 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.71 vol pts · Δ -0.22 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 1.33 vol pts · Δ -0.26 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 53.22% / 7D RV 51.91% · spread +1.31 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 55.64% / 7D RV 56.53% · spread -0.89 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 72.49% / 7D RV 80.03% · spread -7.54 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 20.57% / 7D RV 12.04% · spread +8.53 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 51.91% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 56.53% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 80.03% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 12.04% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 13 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 13 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 13 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 13 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.