01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
Dispersion also increased across the four altcoins: the unsigned 1W RR25 level range widened by 2.66 volatility points to 7.79 volatility points over the same daily comparison, with TRX highest and AVAX lowest. The range of 1W ATM IV daily changes was 6.87 volatility points: XRP's 1W ATM IV increased by 4.03 volatility points, compared with a 2.84 volatility-point decrease in AVAX's 1W ATM IV. Fixed-tenor measurements from 3M through 1Y remain unavailable.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 51.46 vol points; absolute gap change -0.46 vol points. Historical percentile rank 57%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 28 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 6.87 vol points. Historical percentile rank 68%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 28 historical observations; minimum 20.
XRP stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 5.53 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -2.84 points to +4.03 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 69.65%.
TRX had the highest 1W RR25 at +3.60 points, call-rich; AVAX had the lowest at -4.19 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +5.55 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -7.25 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 51.46 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +5.55 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -7.25 vol points. The range between these spreads is 12.80 vol points.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 57.1%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 67.9%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 75.0%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 32.1%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint event comparison
0 matching episodes among 28 complete historical observations; 0 episodes also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
Each observation contains aligned 24-hour spot-index returns and 1W ATM IV, RR25 and BF25 changes for every covered asset. Matching requires the same direction category in every dimension; near-flat tolerances are ±0.10% spot, ±0.25 ATM IV points, and ±0.10 RR25/BF25 points.
Historical window: 2026-09-02T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00. No joint rarity percentile is estimated. Causality is not assessed.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint comparisons
Each comparison uses its own complete aligned daily history. Counts describe matching direction patterns and simultaneous magnitude exceedances; no joint rarity percentile or causal claim is made.
Spot and ATM IV
0 matching episodes among 28 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-02T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 761fe6fe00fa54fc25aca3d2b0e788f8f9c780b5be1eb42a3303d09648f05c44
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
ATM IV and RR25
0 matching episodes among 28 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-02T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 3c3284c93b9a287d82522f62678e5f5878572ff642a3a691fb9bdfa1a936fa68
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
Spot, ATM IV, RR25 and BF25
0 matching episodes among 28 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-02T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: d20a85eee149a21844c2ee0f3bfb4bfbb4f97274a71e7ff0e6912ae0f9716163
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
One-month minus one-week ATM IV
Term-structure regime changes
A genuine sign crossing requires strictly opposite nonzero endpoints. An exactly zero slope is a zero touch. Version 2 separately requires both endpoints to clear opposite sides of ±0.50 volatility points for a material regime change. This deadband is provisional, not fit-calibrated or a rarity claim.
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | Regime evidence | History eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +0.64 | -2.51 | -3.15 | upward-sloping → inverted; material regime change | 36 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 86.1%. |
| HYPE | -0.62 | +1.73 | +2.35 | inverted → upward-sloping; material regime change | 38 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 84.2%. |
| AVAX | -2.26 | -0.69 | +1.57 | inverted; no sign crossing | 33 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 45.5%. |
| TRX | -2.02 | -0.26 | +1.76 | inverted; no sign crossing | 36 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 52.8%. |
Per-asset history receipts
XRP: 4bb2be7832a5a1ac32f00767ad60627b911fc7b5a674273f9f5e66cf93caaaac
HYPE: 7b1457f85073933914d6a840bc0d1197a4b7914e50d8187fc404728983be382e
AVAX: a8be95cd30b80e717ea92bd78338209be3e5ff2a9594e09dfbcf9b639d45ca04
TRX: 88cebc2a7de50bb10c2f50910957e8a6b17c858594b3059445e6f3e5c48b55ca
Descriptive market-wide observation · 2026-10-14
Seven-asset daily observations
Report cutoff: . Comparison snapshot: .
24-hour spot moves: 6 of seven assets moved lower.
All seven 1W ATM IV daily changes
Volatility points
Current: 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Previous: 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Exact 24-hour spot-index returns
Percent
Current: 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Previous: 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Read the dated report and source evidence.
Measurement details & evidence
Raw 24-hour spot signs: 1 higher, 6 lower, 0 exactly flat, 0 unavailable.
With ±0.10% near-flat tolerance: 1 higher, 6 lower, 0 near-flat, 0 unavailable.
A spot direction is reported only with complete seven-asset coverage and when at least 6 of seven assets share that direction.
The seven-asset measurement does not meet the stored quantitative prerequisites. IV qualification requires a common nonzero direction and at least 1.00 volatility points in every asset; publication also depends on materiality and editorial checks.
Historical eligibility: 25 complete observations; minimum 20. Joint-magnitude percentile 92.0%. Causality is not assessed.
History window: to .
Excluded history rows: conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleWindowLength: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
Event ID: market-wide-iv-spot-99a5bf4ee50900ee56b63532e21ceff378ead9798f4d408956eafbdc15e14d0d
Current source SHA-256: c42395f3993270c4fa344afe5cbe5488d81d81c711b762d6df3ea30e6205fbbe
Historical source SHA-256: 63d4df221c3c6a0f594ddc6bc199c47b56c6b81b36d47d8006113d8b927c59ce
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 69.65 | XRP · 57.25 · up 1 | HYPE · 55.03 · down 1 | TRX · 18.19 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 4.03 | HYPE · -0.61 | TRX · -2.38 | AVAX · -2.84 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 5.55 | XRP · 3.91 | HYPE · -2.77 | AVAX · -7.25 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | TRX · 3.60 · up 3 | HYPE · -0.03 · up 1 | XRP · -2.03 · down 2 | AVAX · -4.19 · down 2 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | AVAX · -4.19 · up 2 | XRP · -2.03 · up 2 | HYPE · -0.03 · down 1 | TRX · 3.60 · down 3 |
| 24h spot-index return | TRX · 1.86 | HYPE · -2.35 | XRP · -3.31 | AVAX · -4.24 |
1W ATM IV change
+5.53 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-37.95 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+4.63 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-7.82 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -3.31% | $1.33 | 57.25% | +4.03 vol pts | 53.34% | +3.91 vol pts | 1.07× | Unavailable | -2.03 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -2.35% | $79.57 | 55.03% | -0.61 vol pts | 57.80% | -2.77 vol pts | 0.95× | Unavailable | -0.03 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -4.24% | $9.86 | 69.65% | -2.84 vol pts | 76.90% | -7.25 vol pts | 0.91× | Unavailable | -4.19 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +1.86% | $0.33 | 18.19% | -2.38 vol pts | 12.64% | +5.55 vol pts | 1.44× | Unavailable | +3.60 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 57.25% / +4.03 | 54.74% / +0.88 |
| HYPE | 55.03% / -0.61 | 56.76% / +1.74 |
| AVAX | 69.65% / -2.84 | 68.96% / -1.27 |
| TRX | 18.19% / -2.38 | 17.93% / -0.62 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01Ripple adds Stripe-owned wallets to XRP Ledger as AI payments pass 14 millionCoinDesk ·
Ripple adds Stripe-owned wallets to XRP Ledger as AI payments pass 14 million
- 02EQX Plans 11 Tokenized Stock and ETF Markets on HyperliquidThe Defiant ·
The share-backed tokens would trade on HyperCore against USDC, with US persons excluded under EQX’s eligibility rules.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
XRP 1W RR25 -2.03 vol pts · Δ -5.55 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 3.60 vol pts · Δ +5.21 vol pts
Signed spread: +5.13 → -5.63 vol pts · rotation -10.76 vol pts
Original report summary
XRP and TRX 1W RR25 crossed zero in opposite directions: the signed XRP-minus-TRX 1W RR25 spread changed by -10.76 volatility points, from +5.13 to -5.63 volatility points, against the October 13 cutoff at 16:30 UTC. Derivasys measurements at the October 14 cutoff show XRP shifting toward higher put volatility relative to calls and TRX toward higher call volatility relative to puts.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 57.25% · Δ +4.03 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.03% · Δ -0.61 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 69.65% · Δ -2.84 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 18.19% · Δ -2.38 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 -2.03 vol pts · Δ -5.55 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 -0.03 vol pts · Δ +0.33 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 -4.19 vol pts · Δ -4.48 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 3.60 vol pts · Δ +5.21 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 57.25% / 7D RV 53.34% · spread +3.91 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 55.03% / 7D RV 57.80% · spread -2.77 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 69.65% / 7D RV 76.90% · spread -7.25 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 18.19% / 7D RV 12.64% · spread +5.55 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 57.25% · Δ +4.03 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 55.03% · Δ -0.61 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 69.65% · Δ -2.84 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 18.19% · Δ -2.38 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 -2.03 vol pts · Δ -5.55 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 -0.03 vol pts · Δ +0.33 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 -4.19 vol pts · Δ -4.48 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 3.60 vol pts · Δ +5.21 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.61 vol pts · Δ +0.05 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 2.91 vol pts · Δ +0.39 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.47 vol pts · Δ -0.24 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 2.76 vol pts · Δ +1.43 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 57.25% / 7D RV 53.34% · spread +3.91 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 55.03% / 7D RV 57.80% · spread -2.77 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 69.65% / 7D RV 76.90% · spread -7.25 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 18.19% / 7D RV 12.64% · spread +5.55 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 53.34% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 57.80% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 76.90% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 12.64% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 14 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 14 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 14 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 14 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.