01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The split also extended to 1W ATM IV changes versus the prior daily cutoff: HYPE rose 2.15 volatility points and TRX rose 0.50 points, while XRP fell 1.24 points and AVAX fell 1.93 points. The cross-sectional range of 1W ATM IV changes was 4.08 volatility points. Separately, one-week ATM implied volatility minus seven-day realised volatility was highest for TRX at +5.73 volatility points and lowest for AVAX at -11.04 points, an unsigned range of 16.77 points.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 48.62 vol points; absolute gap change -2.43 vol points. Historical percentile rank 43%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 28 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.08 vol points. Historical percentile rank 36%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 28 historical observations; minimum 20.
HYPE stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.52 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -1.93 points to +2.15 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 67.73%.
HYPE had the highest 1W RR25 at +2.56 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -0.43 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +5.73 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -11.04 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 48.62 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +5.73 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -11.04 vol points. The range between these spreads is 16.77 vol points.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 42.9%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 35.7%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 14.3%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 75.0%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint event comparison
0 matching episodes among 28 complete historical observations; 0 episodes also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
Closest historical configurations
Validated frozen similarity receipt · method v1. Descriptive similarity only; no probability or outcome prediction.
Nearest 3 among 28 eligible prior daily configurations. Distance is RMS difference of train-only empirical ranks (0–1); smaller means closer. 0 exact complete-vector matches.
- · rank distance 0.2913
Largest differences from that prior configuration: HYPE 1W ATM IV change +3.70 volatility points; AVAX 1W BF25 change -0.43 volatility points; HYPE 1W RR25 change +3.03 volatility points.
Exact distance, feature comparisons and source receipt
2026-10-08T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T16:31:00+00:00. Distance 0.291343814268; 0/16 feature values match exactly.
Current minus prior features; ranks use prior observations only Asset / metric Unit Current Prior Difference Current / prior rank XRP 24h spot return percent 0.13 2.23 -2.1 0.535714285714 / 0.767857142857 XRP 1W ATM IV change volatility points -1.24 -2.29 1.05 0.428571428571 / 0.339285714286 XRP 1W RR25 change volatility points 2.08 4.57 -2.49 0.714285714286 / 0.875 XRP 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.08 -0.41 0.33 0.428571428571 / 0.232142857143 HYPE 24h spot return percent 1.87 0.79 1.08 0.75 / 0.553571428571 HYPE 1W ATM IV change volatility points 2.15 -1.55 3.7 0.892857142857 / 0.267857142857 HYPE 1W RR25 change volatility points 2.27 -0.76 3.03 0.75 / 0.375 HYPE 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.17 -0.54 0.37 0.428571428571 / 0.232142857143 AVAX 24h spot return percent 0.67 1.34 -0.67 0.571428571429 / 0.625 AVAX 1W ATM IV change volatility points -1.93 -5.7 3.77 0.25 / 0.017857142857 AVAX 1W RR25 change volatility points 5.96 1.41 4.55 1 / 0.839285714286 AVAX 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.38 0.05 -0.43 0.142857142857 / 0.589285714286 TRX 24h spot return percent -0.61 -0.33 -0.28 0.107142857143 / 0.375 TRX 1W ATM IV change volatility points 0.5 -0.43 0.93 0.642857142857 / 0.482142857143 TRX 1W RR25 change volatility points -4.26 -1.15 -3.11 0.035714285714 / 0.410714285714 TRX 1W BF25 change volatility points -1 0.07 -1.07 0.107142857143 / 0.428571428571 Measured feature identity SHA-256:
e106fc67b5a17b98ec554410c217e4a5d8f94367b7bffd7fc128321969ce4462. - · rank distance 0.2976
Largest differences from that prior configuration: TRX 24h spot return -2.32 percent; AVAX 1W RR25 change +5.88 volatility points; XRP 24h spot return -6.31 percent.
Exact distance, feature comparisons and source receipt
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-09-18T16:31:00+00:00. Distance 0.297570680594; 0/16 feature values match exactly.
Current minus prior features; ranks use prior observations only Asset / metric Unit Current Prior Difference Current / prior rank XRP 24h spot return percent 0.13 6.44 -6.31 0.535714285714 / 0.946428571429 XRP 1W ATM IV change volatility points -1.24 1.14 -2.38 0.428571428571 / 0.660714285714 XRP 1W RR25 change volatility points 2.08 3.72 -1.64 0.714285714286 / 0.839285714286 XRP 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.08 -0.22 0.14 0.428571428571 / 0.321428571429 HYPE 24h spot return percent 1.87 11.72 -9.85 0.75 / 0.982142857143 HYPE 1W ATM IV change volatility points 2.15 1.03 1.12 0.892857142857 / 0.767857142857 HYPE 1W RR25 change volatility points 2.27 4.71 -2.44 0.75 / 0.946428571429 HYPE 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.17 0.05 -0.22 0.428571428571 / 0.517857142857 AVAX 24h spot return percent 0.67 6.65 -5.98 0.571428571429 / 0.910714285714 AVAX 1W ATM IV change volatility points -1.93 -0.45 -1.48 0.25 / 0.375 AVAX 1W RR25 change volatility points 5.96 0.08 5.88 1 / 0.517857142857 AVAX 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.38 -0.52 0.14 0.142857142857 / 0.125 TRX 24h spot return percent -0.61 1.71 -2.32 0.107142857143 / 0.910714285714 TRX 1W ATM IV change volatility points 0.5 3.37 -2.87 0.642857142857 / 0.839285714286 TRX 1W RR25 change volatility points -4.26 -3.45 -0.81 0.035714285714 / 0.053571428571 TRX 1W BF25 change volatility points -1 -0.55 -0.45 0.107142857143 / 0.160714285714 Measured feature identity SHA-256:
068d83953ca47a750e9d0d8283dbc03fce9e136c87179798d5ac8092e16ab409. - · rank distance 0.3150
Largest differences from that prior configuration: TRX 24h spot return -2.19 percent; AVAX 1W RR25 change +5.90 volatility points; HYPE 24h spot return +3.60 percent.
Exact distance, feature comparisons and source receipt
2026-09-07T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-09-08T16:31:00+00:00. Distance 0.315009060041; 0/16 feature values match exactly.
Current minus prior features; ranks use prior observations only Asset / metric Unit Current Prior Difference Current / prior rank XRP 24h spot return percent 0.13 2.9 -2.77 0.535714285714 / 0.803571428571 XRP 1W ATM IV change volatility points -1.24 0.2 -1.44 0.428571428571 / 0.517857142857 XRP 1W RR25 change volatility points 2.08 1.29 0.79 0.714285714286 / 0.625 XRP 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.08 -0.21 0.13 0.428571428571 / 0.375 HYPE 24h spot return percent 1.87 -1.73 3.6 0.75 / 0.267857142857 HYPE 1W ATM IV change volatility points 2.15 -1.22 3.37 0.892857142857 / 0.410714285714 HYPE 1W RR25 change volatility points 2.27 0.74 1.53 0.75 / 0.625 HYPE 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.17 0.48 -0.65 0.428571428571 / 0.75 AVAX 24h spot return percent 0.67 -0.29 0.96 0.571428571429 / 0.482142857143 AVAX 1W ATM IV change volatility points -1.93 -0.24 -1.69 0.25 / 0.446428571429 AVAX 1W RR25 change volatility points 5.96 0.06 5.9 1 / 0.482142857143 AVAX 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.38 -0.32 -0.06 0.142857142857 / 0.160714285714 TRX 24h spot return percent -0.61 1.58 -2.19 0.107142857143 / 0.839285714286 TRX 1W ATM IV change volatility points 0.5 3.39 -2.89 0.642857142857 / 0.875 TRX 1W RR25 change volatility points -4.26 -3.23 -1.03 0.035714285714 / 0.125 TRX 1W BF25 change volatility points -1 -0.79 -0.21 0.107142857143 / 0.125 Measured feature identity SHA-256:
df46a958460cfe06427aa2a3b47e7f15ad0d7834cf93126d8af1d465211af363.
Similarity training window and method
No current or future values enter the empirical training distribution. Every asset/metric receives equal weight; the same prior distribution ranks current and prior values, including ties and constant dimensions.
History window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00.
Cohort source SHA-256: 9fb6ad0289fe5ff93b596844ca196a7cc6fe8416d9b605ab77c49cb70680e851. Training feature SHA-256: 29081eac83cbef9b91fdfe61917ed0c81aa335259df52ed8a537d5016bd9b3fb.
Joint comparison method and history receipt
Each observation contains aligned 24-hour spot-index returns and 1W ATM IV, RR25 and BF25 changes for every covered asset. Matching requires the same direction category in every dimension; near-flat tolerances are ±0.10% spot, ±0.25 ATM IV points, and ±0.10 RR25/BF25 points.
Historical window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00. No joint rarity percentile is estimated. Causality is not assessed.
Historical source SHA-256: 9fb6ad0289fe5ff93b596844ca196a7cc6fe8416d9b605ab77c49cb70680e851.
Cross-asset comparisons and term-structure receipts
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint comparisons
Each comparison uses its own complete aligned daily history. Counts describe matching direction patterns and simultaneous magnitude exceedances; no joint rarity percentile or causal claim is made.
Spot and ATM IV
1 matching episodes among 28 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: ea3cdda737459d4781d340ede9470acd1bf21da11c369e774aba2cf37fba8a29
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
ATM IV and RR25
0 matching episodes among 28 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 49f9a0b318c3e1f44ed0b193092d88ea570b0b0b40002bc4c3bd38aa6b053527
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
Spot, ATM IV, RR25 and BF25
0 matching episodes among 28 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 9fb6ad0289fe5ff93b596844ca196a7cc6fe8416d9b605ab77c49cb70680e851
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
One-month minus one-week ATM IV
Term-structure regime changes
A genuine sign crossing requires strictly opposite nonzero endpoints. An exactly zero slope is a zero touch. Version 2 separately requires both endpoints to clear opposite sides of ±0.50 volatility points for a material regime change. This deadband is provisional, not fit-calibrated or a rarity claim.
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | Regime evidence | History eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -1.03 | +0.08 | +1.11 | inverted → upward-sloping; technical sign crossing only; within material deadband | 37 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 32.4%. |
| HYPE | +2.28 | +1.43 | -0.85 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 40 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 30.0%. |
| AVAX | -0.70 | -0.06 | +0.64 | inverted; no sign crossing | 34 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 20.6%. |
| TRX | -0.77 | +1.74 | +2.51 | inverted → upward-sloping; material regime change | 36 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 69.4%. |
Per-asset history receipts
XRP: eb0bcd301652f1809e2b4ed40c5f48be562b147b2c05d7d01b8f8f6fa3536838
HYPE: 794376135b8faf0ecc00e51877d2d1ec70119630b292ba1b0378aa62d8c0aaf3
AVAX: e082ef211e09c79f0fd14909b106bae1cc7922e1b5c9f1d14d26575ecf98c9a8
TRX: d007ad2a7f1aed7424beffbb459c3957564c5f96239f186b5e72e455c868f18e
Descriptive market-wide observation · 2026-10-15
Seven-asset daily observations
Report cutoff: . Comparison snapshot: .
24-hour spot moves: no common direction across six or more assets.
Validated frozen magnitude receipt · unsigned RMS method v1. IV changes: 2 higher, 5 lower, 0 flat. Unsigned RMS move size: 1.39 volatility points · 8.3% inclusive historical percentile (n=24).
Directional coordination: not qualified; coordinated strength 0.00 volatility points. Unsigned move size does not establish common direction or qualify an event.
All seven 1W ATM IV daily changes
Volatility points
Current: 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 14 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Exact 24-hour spot-index returns
Percent
Current: 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 14 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Read the dated report and source evidence.
Measurement details & evidence
Raw 24-hour spot signs: 5 higher, 2 lower, 0 exactly flat, 0 unavailable.
With ±0.10% near-flat tolerance: 5 higher, 2 lower, 0 near-flat, 0 unavailable.
A spot direction is reported only with complete seven-asset coverage and when at least 6 of seven assets share that direction.
The seven-asset measurement does not meet the stored quantitative prerequisites. IV qualification requires a common nonzero direction and at least 1.00 volatility points in every asset; publication also depends on materiality and editorial checks.
Historical eligibility: 24 complete observations; minimum 20. Coordinated-strength inclusive percentile 91.7%. Causality is not assessed.
Unsigned RMS rank: 2 prior magnitudes below, 0 equal, 22 above. The historical cohort and window are unchanged.
Coordinated-strength ties: 22 of 24 prior observations equal today's 0.00 volatility points. Zero means mixed or flat IV directions; an inclusive percentile tied at zero does not establish a large move.
History window: to .
Excluded history rows: conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleWindowLength: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
Event ID: market-wide-iv-spot-38801793148846e10b3f51e558a693452da26f01fde7d35c358dc1e689ba6442
Current source SHA-256: a124bca41f53b96bf689bb6139b91df41cf2549b382a1d393abd0b297e9f71cc
Historical source SHA-256: 3395d15a541c0efe8aa4fa75cc9025158ac0826db0262bf832425b7f63edb19a
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 67.73 | HYPE · 56.81 · up 1 | XRP · 54.50 · down 1 | TRX · 19.11 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | HYPE · 2.15 | TRX · 0.50 | XRP · -1.24 | AVAX · -1.93 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 5.73 | XRP · -3.18 | HYPE · -5.59 | AVAX · -11.04 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | HYPE · 2.56 · up 1 | AVAX · 1.77 · up 2 | XRP · 0.03 | TRX · -0.43 · down 3 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | TRX · -0.43 · up 3 | XRP · 0.03 | AVAX · 1.77 · down 2 | HYPE · 2.56 · down 1 |
| 24h spot-index return | HYPE · 1.87 | AVAX · 0.67 | XRP · 0.13 | TRX · -0.61 |
1W ATM IV change
+2.52 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-36.55 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+1.66 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+10.12 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +0.13% | $1.33 | 54.50% | -1.24 vol pts | 57.68% | -3.18 vol pts | 0.94× | Unavailable | +0.03 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +1.87% | $81.12 | 56.81% | +2.15 vol pts | 62.40% | -5.59 vol pts | 0.91× | Unavailable | +2.56 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +0.67% | $9.93 | 67.73% | -1.93 vol pts | 78.77% | -11.04 vol pts | 0.86× | Unavailable | +1.77 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.61% | $0.33 | 19.11% | +0.50 vol pts | 13.38% | +5.73 vol pts | 1.43× | Unavailable | -0.43 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 54.50% / -1.24 | 54.58% / -0.13 |
| HYPE | 56.81% / +2.15 | 58.24% / +1.30 |
| AVAX | 67.73% / -1.93 | 67.67% / -1.29 |
| TRX | 19.11% / +0.50 | 20.85% / +3.01 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01Ripple Prime adds RWA swaps referencing perpetual futures listed on HyperliquidThe Block ·
Selected ALTS context: The Block reports new Ripple Prime RWA swaps referencing Hyperliquid perpetual futures. Editorial subject is derivatives_access, not options_volatility or spot_etf; canonical category and event type remain unchanged.
- 02Nasdaq-listed Tron sets up $200M ATM share offering to fuel TRX acquisitionsCointelegraph ·
Selected ALTS context: Cointelegraph reports a $200M at-the-market share offering intended to fund TRX purchases. Provisional single-source corporate reporting; ATM here is share issuance, not at-the-money options.
- 03Polygon (POL), TRON (TRX) and Optimism (OP) Funding DelaysKraken ·
Selected ALTS context discovered only by the global sweep: Kraken's headline explicitly names TRX despite empty canonical asset tags. Returned summary says resolved at 10:28 UTC. Preserve empty tags; do not infer a blockchain-wide outage or market reaction.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 03f4843f60d3079b9772c7a199f36459b8ca0367262c3198cebbfe22313b75e3.
Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.
Canonical daily event facts and history eligibility
Exact UTC windows retain reported values and proof levels separately. Insufficient history, unavailable exact proof and incompatible sampling clocks have distinct reasons. Receipt SHA-256: 7fe4d50c4bd0a5e866533383f466c7b09f041728dd1dc99099a946fc57b18043.
Native fit-run IDs identify stored surface snapshots; they are not database revisions. Missing IDs, input pin hashes and database revisions remain unavailable.
| Asset | Previous native fit run / UTC time | Current native fit run / UTC time | Native input pin SHA-256 | Database source revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| HYPE | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| TRX | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| XRP | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
Full canonical measurement input SHA-256: 7fe4d50c4bd0a5e866533383f466c7b09f041728dd1dc99099a946fc57b18043. The canonical JSON download above is available only when bound to this report artifact.
| Asset / metric | Exact UTC window | Reported change / return | Proof | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX 1W atmIv | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | -1.93 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| AVAX 1W bf25 | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.38 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| AVAX 1W rr25 | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | 5.96 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| AVAX 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.67% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W atmIv | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | 2.15 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W bf25 | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.17 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W rr25 | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | 2.27 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | 1.87% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| TRX 1W atmIv | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.5 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| TRX 1W bf25 | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | -1 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| TRX 1W rr25 | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | -4.26 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| TRX 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.61% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W atmIv | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | -1.24 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W bf25 | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.08 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W rr25 | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | 2.08 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.13% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 28 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
Original reported source-provenance diagnostics
AVAX: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
HYPE: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
TRX: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
XRP: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
AVAX 1W RR25 1.77 vol pts · Δ +5.96 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -0.43 vol pts · Δ -4.26 vol pts
Signed spread: -8.02 → +2.20 vol pts · rotation +10.22 vol pts
Original report summary
The signed AVAX-minus-TRX 1W RR25 spread reversed from -8.02 to +2.20 volatility points, a +10.22-point change versus the October 14 cutoff. AVAX and TRX crossed zero in opposite directions in call-minus-put skew. Across the four altcoin options markets, this pair reversal accompanied compression in the range of 1W RR25 levels.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 54.50% · Δ -1.24 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 56.81% · Δ +2.15 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 67.73% · Δ -1.93 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 19.11% · Δ +0.50 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 0.03 vol pts · Δ +2.08 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 2.56 vol pts · Δ +2.27 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 1.77 vol pts · Δ +5.96 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -0.43 vol pts · Δ -4.26 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 54.50% / 7D RV 57.68% · spread -3.18 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 56.81% / 7D RV 62.40% · spread -5.59 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 67.73% / 7D RV 78.77% · spread -11.04 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 19.11% / 7D RV 13.38% · spread +5.73 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 54.50% · Δ -1.24 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 56.81% · Δ +2.15 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 67.73% · Δ -1.93 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 19.11% · Δ +0.50 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 0.03 vol pts · Δ +2.08 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 2.56 vol pts · Δ +2.27 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 1.77 vol pts · Δ +5.96 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -0.43 vol pts · Δ -4.26 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.43 vol pts · Δ -0.08 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 2.70 vol pts · Δ -0.17 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.09 vol pts · Δ -0.38 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 1.85 vol pts · Δ -1.00 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 54.50% / 7D RV 57.68% · spread -3.18 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 56.81% / 7D RV 62.40% · spread -5.59 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 67.73% / 7D RV 78.77% · spread -11.04 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 19.11% / 7D RV 13.38% · spread +5.73 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; HYPE 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; AVAX 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; TRX 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 57.68% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 62.40% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 78.77% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 13.38% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.