01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
Despite that divergence, the cross-sectional range of current 1W ATM IV levels narrowed from 48.62 to 27.53 volatility points. AVAX remained the highest at 55.40%, while TRX remained the lowest at 27.87%. Separately, TRX's 1M-minus-1W ATM IV slope crossed from +1.74 to -9.90 volatility points versus the prior cutoff, putting its 1W implied volatility above its 1M level. The frozen news review identified no qualifying constituent reporting to contextualise these options moves during the comparison window. The measured repricing therefore remains unattributed.
What is unusual today?
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 27.53 vol points; absolute gap change -21.09 vol points. Historical percentile rank 0%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 29 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 21.09 vol points. Historical percentile rank 100%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 29 historical observations; minimum 20.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 13.00 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -12.33 points to +8.76 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 55.40%.
TRX had the highest 1W RR25 at +4.38 points, call-rich; XRP had the lowest at -1.42 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +14.03 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -22.53 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 27.53 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +14.03 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -22.53 vol points. The range between these spreads is 36.56 vol points.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 0.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 100.0%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 58.6%; IV-minus-realised dispersion percentile rank 93.1%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint event comparison
0 matching episodes among 29 complete historical observations; 0 episodes also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
Closest historical configurations
Validated frozen similarity receipt · method v2. Descriptive similarity only; no probability or outcome prediction.
Nearest 3 among 29 eligible prior daily configurations. Distance is RMS difference of train-only empirical ranks (0–1); smaller means closer. 0 exact complete-vector matches.
- · rank distance 0.3144
Largest differences from that prior configuration: TRX 1W ATM IV change +8.99 volatility points; TRX 1W BF25 change -1.49 volatility points; HYPE 24h spot return -4.01 percent.
Exact distance, feature comparisons and source receipt
2026-09-08T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-09-09T16:31:00+00:00. Distance 0.314448444135; 0/16 feature values match exactly.
Current minus prior features; ranks use prior observations only Asset / metric Unit Current Prior Difference Current / prior rank XRP 24h spot return percent -1.21 -0.67 -0.54 0.344827586207 / 0.431034482759 XRP 1W ATM IV change volatility points -3.83 0.46 -4.29 0.206896551724 / 0.568965517241 XRP 1W RR25 change volatility points -1.45 -0.72 -0.73 0.241379310345 / 0.327586206897 XRP 1W BF25 change volatility points 0.03 0.12 -0.09 0.448275862069 / 0.48275862069 HYPE 24h spot return percent -2.23 1.78 -4.01 0.241379310345 / 0.706896551724 HYPE 1W ATM IV change volatility points -4.65 -1.52 -3.13 0.034482758621 / 0.293103448276 HYPE 1W RR25 change volatility points -2.64 0.23 -2.87 0.103448275862 / 0.5 HYPE 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.4 0.03 -0.43 0.310344827586 / 0.5 AVAX 24h spot return percent 2.02 -1.28 3.3 0.689655172414 / 0.344827586207 AVAX 1W ATM IV change volatility points -12.33 -0.8 -11.53 0 / 0.327586206897 AVAX 1W RR25 change volatility points -0.16 0.25 -0.41 0.413793103448 / 0.603448275862 AVAX 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.4 -0.11 -0.29 0.137931034483 / 0.5 TRX 24h spot return percent 0.91 0.17 0.74 0.793103448276 / 0.672413793103 TRX 1W ATM IV change volatility points 8.76 -0.23 8.99 1 / 0.5 TRX 1W RR25 change volatility points 4.81 -0.46 5.27 0.862068965517 / 0.637931034483 TRX 1W BF25 change volatility points -1.37 0.12 -1.49 0.034482758621 / 0.534482758621 Measured feature identity SHA-256:
ec4352f449c77bc63d932002451f2c783e360b958f9a60dbf1501060e8b0d1bf. - · rank distance 0.3249
Largest differences from that prior configuration: HYPE 1W ATM IV change -6.44 volatility points; XRP 1W BF25 change +1.71 volatility points; HYPE 1W RR25 change -3.19 volatility points.
Exact distance, feature comparisons and source receipt
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-09-24T16:31:00+00:00. Distance 0.324852477266; 0/16 feature values match exactly.
Current minus prior features; ranks use prior observations only Asset / metric Unit Current Prior Difference Current / prior rank XRP 24h spot return percent -1.21 1.16 -2.37 0.344827586207 / 0.672413793103 XRP 1W ATM IV change volatility points -3.83 -13.49 9.66 0.206896551724 / 0.01724137931 XRP 1W RR25 change volatility points -1.45 0.74 -2.19 0.241379310345 / 0.534482758621 XRP 1W BF25 change volatility points 0.03 -1.68 1.71 0.448275862069 / 0.01724137931 HYPE 24h spot return percent -2.23 -0.14 -2.09 0.241379310345 / 0.431034482759 HYPE 1W ATM IV change volatility points -4.65 1.79 -6.44 0.034482758621 / 0.844827586207 HYPE 1W RR25 change volatility points -2.64 0.55 -3.19 0.103448275862 / 0.534482758621 HYPE 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.4 0.37 -0.77 0.310344827586 / 0.637931034483 AVAX 24h spot return percent 2.02 1.22 0.8 0.689655172414 / 0.603448275862 AVAX 1W ATM IV change volatility points -12.33 -3.68 -8.65 0 / 0.120689655172 AVAX 1W RR25 change volatility points -0.16 -0.07 -0.09 0.413793103448 / 0.431034482759 AVAX 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.4 -0.19 -0.21 0.137931034483 / 0.465517241379 TRX 24h spot return percent 0.91 0.57 0.34 0.793103448276 / 0.775862068966 TRX 1W ATM IV change volatility points 8.76 0.95 7.81 1 / 0.706896551724 TRX 1W RR25 change volatility points 4.81 -0.13 4.94 0.862068965517 / 0.672413793103 TRX 1W BF25 change volatility points -1.37 -0.29 -1.08 0.034482758621 / 0.224137931034 Measured feature identity SHA-256:
837b4f3232aef01482c794527e9c7bd0510537f21f865ce41be5b9e975b3bdf2. - · rank distance 0.3399
Largest differences from that prior configuration: TRX 1W RR25 change +8.04 volatility points; HYPE 1W RR25 change -3.38 volatility points; XRP 24h spot return -4.11 percent.
Exact distance, feature comparisons and source receipt
2026-09-07T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-09-08T16:31:00+00:00. Distance 0.339916536933; 0/16 feature values match exactly.
Current minus prior features; ranks use prior observations only Asset / metric Unit Current Prior Difference Current / prior rank XRP 24h spot return percent -1.21 2.9 -4.11 0.344827586207 / 0.810344827586 XRP 1W ATM IV change volatility points -3.83 0.2 -4.03 0.206896551724 / 0.534482758621 XRP 1W RR25 change volatility points -1.45 1.29 -2.74 0.241379310345 / 0.603448275862 XRP 1W BF25 change volatility points 0.03 -0.21 0.24 0.448275862069 / 0.362068965517 HYPE 24h spot return percent -2.23 -1.73 -0.5 0.241379310345 / 0.258620689655 HYPE 1W ATM IV change volatility points -4.65 -1.22 -3.43 0.034482758621 / 0.396551724138 HYPE 1W RR25 change volatility points -2.64 0.74 -3.38 0.103448275862 / 0.603448275862 HYPE 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.4 0.48 -0.88 0.310344827586 / 0.758620689655 AVAX 24h spot return percent 2.02 -0.29 2.31 0.689655172414 / 0.465517241379 AVAX 1W ATM IV change volatility points -12.33 -0.24 -12.09 0 / 0.465517241379 AVAX 1W RR25 change volatility points -0.16 0.06 -0.22 0.413793103448 / 0.465517241379 AVAX 1W BF25 change volatility points -0.4 -0.32 -0.08 0.137931034483 / 0.189655172414 TRX 24h spot return percent 0.91 1.58 -0.67 0.793103448276 / 0.844827586207 TRX 1W ATM IV change volatility points 8.76 3.39 5.37 1 / 0.879310344828 TRX 1W RR25 change volatility points 4.81 -3.23 8.04 0.862068965517 / 0.155172413793 TRX 1W BF25 change volatility points -1.37 -0.79 -0.58 0.034482758621 / 0.155172413793 Measured feature identity SHA-256:
df46a958460cfe06427aa2a3b47e7f15ad0d7834cf93126d8af1d465211af363.
Neighbour stability
Omit one asset/metric feature or one whole asset, then compare with the original three neighbours using the same 29 prior configurations and empirical ranks. Coverage: 16 features across 4 assets.
Overlap counts how many original neighbours remain in the closest three. Rank movement is the largest absolute position change of an original neighbour across the full prior cohort.
One feature omitted: 16/16 cases evaluated; 0 unavailable. Minimum overlap 1/3; maximum rank movement 3 positions.
One feature omitted: largest changes
- Without HYPE 1W ATM IV change: 1/3 neighbours retained; maximum rank movement 3 positions; 15 features remain.
- Without TRX 1W ATM IV change: 2/3 neighbours retained; maximum rank movement 3 positions; 15 features remain.
- Without TRX 1W BF25 change: 2/3 neighbours retained; maximum rank movement 3 positions; 15 features remain.
One asset omitted: 4/4 cases evaluated; 0 unavailable. Minimum overlap 1/3; maximum rank movement 7 positions.
One asset omitted: largest changes
- Without TRX: 1/3 neighbours retained; maximum rank movement 7 positions; 12 features remain.
- Without AVAX: 1/3 neighbours retained; maximum rank movement 3 positions; 12 features remain.
- Without XRP: 2/3 neighbours retained; maximum rank movement 3 positions; 12 features remain.
Descriptive sensitivity only. Ties and constant features can preserve ordering; unchanged neighbours do not imply confidence or predict an outcome.
Similarity training window and method
No current or future values enter the empirical training distribution. Every asset/metric receives equal weight; the same prior distribution ranks current and prior values, including ties and constant dimensions.
History window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00.
Cohort source SHA-256: 1d3962d87515c1e3fef19f6a630ff8b82dec6f72d17b63fd2942ee21c2fc5b92. Training feature SHA-256: 7c39f0e48e89a52e656b42834b666be07d18dfb3078471274cf295601640419f.
Joint comparison method and history receipt
Each observation contains aligned 24-hour spot-index returns and 1W ATM IV, RR25 and BF25 changes for every covered asset. Matching requires the same direction category in every dimension; near-flat tolerances are ±0.10% spot, ±0.25 ATM IV points, and ±0.10 RR25/BF25 points.
Historical window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00. No joint rarity percentile is estimated. Causality is not assessed.
Historical source SHA-256: 1d3962d87515c1e3fef19f6a630ff8b82dec6f72d17b63fd2942ee21c2fc5b92.
Cross-asset comparisons and term-structure receipts
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint comparisons
Each comparison uses its own complete aligned daily history. Counts describe matching direction patterns and simultaneous magnitude exceedances; no joint rarity percentile or causal claim is made.
Spot and ATM IV
0 matching episodes among 29 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 56ef56f00a934fe0fb6446dff04a3abacbc62de236ec5c6d7d64dcc653cc8d89
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
ATM IV and RR25
0 matching episodes among 29 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: f2011b3a1d9ff2297fbedb7900dbb43c4b7eafc5ddbf02b89ee2b50d1c115086
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
Spot, ATM IV, RR25 and BF25
0 matching episodes among 29 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-01T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 1d3962d87515c1e3fef19f6a630ff8b82dec6f72d17b63fd2942ee21c2fc5b92
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
One-month minus one-week ATM IV
Term-structure regime changes
A genuine sign crossing requires strictly opposite nonzero endpoints. An exactly zero slope is a zero touch. Version 2 separately requires both endpoints to clear opposite sides of ±0.50 volatility points for a material regime change. This deadband is provisional, not fit-calibrated or a rarity claim.
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | Regime evidence | History eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +0.08 | +3.95 | +3.87 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 38 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 92.1%. |
| HYPE | +1.43 | +5.07 | +3.64 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 41 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 92.7%. |
| AVAX | -0.06 | +7.95 | +8.01 | inverted → upward-sloping; technical sign crossing only; within material deadband | 35 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 97.1%. |
| TRX | +1.74 | -9.90 | -11.64 | upward-sloping → inverted; material regime change | 37 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 100.0%. |
Per-asset history receipts
XRP: d80a4678534a6e1b8c074f43c6fe05d67ddc71b93fa63de7c829a755cb035e48
HYPE: e271eb9836013e2a3d9e659eea24966174dd38bfb54ea618652b8b208de55ef3
AVAX: 006b1f5f5987e0a8468401abb99db06ecf1213f6237513b2a916a6656e9c8b30
TRX: 1ec15525b2aaaac1acd7a52018a7bf17ef8c623302e7a35c67cd8d39136b0128
Descriptive market-wide observation · 2026-10-16
Seven-asset daily observations
Report cutoff: . Comparison snapshot: .
24-hour spot moves: no common direction across six or more assets.
Validated frozen magnitude receipt · unsigned RMS method v1. IV changes: 1 higher, 6 lower, 0 flat. Unsigned RMS move size: 6.68 volatility points · 100.0% inclusive historical percentile (n=25).
Directional coordination: not qualified; coordinated strength 0.00 volatility points. Unsigned move size does not establish common direction or qualify an event.
All seven 1W ATM IV daily changes
Volatility points
Current: 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Exact 24-hour spot-index returns
Percent
Current: 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Read the dated report and source evidence.
Measurement details & evidence
Raw 24-hour spot signs: 3 higher, 4 lower, 0 exactly flat, 0 unavailable.
With ±0.10% near-flat tolerance: 3 higher, 4 lower, 0 near-flat, 0 unavailable.
A spot direction is reported only with complete seven-asset coverage and when at least 6 of seven assets share that direction.
The seven-asset measurement does not meet the stored quantitative prerequisites. IV qualification requires a common nonzero direction and at least 1.00 volatility points in every asset; publication also depends on materiality and editorial checks.
Historical eligibility: 25 complete observations; minimum 20. Coordinated-strength inclusive percentile 92.0%. Causality is not assessed.
Unsigned RMS rank: 25 prior magnitudes below, 0 equal, 0 above. The historical cohort and window are unchanged.
Coordinated-strength ties: 23 of 25 prior observations equal today's 0.00 volatility points. Zero means mixed or flat IV directions; an inclusive percentile tied at zero does not establish a large move.
History window: to .
Excluded history rows: conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleWindowLength: 0; invalidMeasurements: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
Event ID: market-wide-iv-spot-b101c2f7207d670592d492f9d373813530c611b020b196168617595a1e8202ec
Current source SHA-256: 62dea0ecf000181c12e48af2e59c51160c5dd1d7ecb0b7a7af6c7de07ff6d2a7
Historical source SHA-256: 4df280702d6b7c5ae7a6ae1bb2367f3855a520a491546099e38ce1141bae6df3
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 55.40 | HYPE · 52.16 | XRP · 50.67 | TRX · 27.87 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | TRX · 8.76 | XRP · -3.83 | HYPE · -4.65 | AVAX · -12.33 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 14.03 | XRP · -5.67 | HYPE · -9.95 | AVAX · -22.53 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | TRX · 4.38 · up 3 | AVAX · 1.61 | HYPE · -0.08 · down 2 | XRP · -1.42 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | XRP · -1.42 · up 1 | HYPE · -0.08 · up 2 | AVAX · 1.61 | TRX · 4.38 · down 3 |
| 24h spot-index return | AVAX · 2.02 | TRX · 0.91 | XRP · -1.21 | HYPE · -2.23 |
1W ATM IV change
+13.00 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-23.54 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+3.61 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+21.84 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -1.21% | $1.31 | 50.67% | -3.83 vol pts | 56.34% | -5.67 vol pts | 0.90× | Unavailable | -1.42 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -2.23% | $79.16 | 52.16% | -4.65 vol pts | 62.11% | -9.95 vol pts | 0.84× | Unavailable | -0.08 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +2.02% | $10.12 | 55.40% | -12.33 vol pts | 77.93% | -22.53 vol pts | 0.71× | Unavailable | +1.61 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +0.91% | $0.33 | 27.87% | +8.76 vol pts | 13.84% | +14.03 vol pts | 2.01× | Unavailable | +4.38 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 50.67% / -3.83 | 54.62% / +0.04 |
| HYPE | 52.16% / -4.65 | 57.23% / -1.01 |
| AVAX | 55.40% / -12.33 | 63.35% / -4.32 |
| TRX | 27.87% / +8.76 | 17.97% / -2.88 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 33e43017bc1edf08e3d8349c57069f478f837fb3f5d750609e40440a2672f4c3.
Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.
Canonical daily event facts and history eligibility
Exact UTC windows retain reported values and proof levels separately. Insufficient history, unavailable exact proof and incompatible sampling clocks have distinct reasons. Receipt SHA-256: e4f89940272a5720f8818def67dfb835d6ad94781c1d97e7a6c5e7d784980c39.
Native fit-run IDs identify stored surface snapshots; they are not database revisions. Missing IDs, input pin hashes and database revisions remain unavailable.
| Asset | Previous native fit run / UTC time | Current native fit run / UTC time | Native input pin SHA-256 | Database source revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| HYPE | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| TRX | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| XRP | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Native fit-run ID unavailableNative snapshot time unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
Full canonical measurement input SHA-256: e4f89940272a5720f8818def67dfb835d6ad94781c1d97e7a6c5e7d784980c39. The canonical JSON download above is available only when bound to this report artifact.
| Asset / metric | Exact UTC window | Reported change / return | Proof | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX 1W atmIv | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -12.33 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| AVAX 1W bf25 | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.4 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| AVAX 1W rr25 | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.16 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| AVAX 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | 2.02% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W atmIv | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -4.65 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W bf25 | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.4 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W rr25 | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -2.64 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -2.23% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| TRX 1W atmIv | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | 8.76 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| TRX 1W bf25 | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -1.37 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| TRX 1W rr25 | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | 4.81 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| TRX 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.91% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W atmIv | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -3.83 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W bf25 | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.03 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W rr25 | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -1.45 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 | -1.21% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 29 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
Original reported source-provenance diagnostics
AVAX: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
HYPE: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
TRX: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
XRP: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
AVAX 1W ATM IV 55.40% · Δ -12.33 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 27.87% · Δ +8.76 vol pts
AVAX minus TRX: signed spread +27.53 vol pts · spread Δ -21.09 vol pts
Comparison scope: selected range endpoints.
Absolute current level gap: 27.53 vol pts
Daily-change dispersion: 21.09 vol pts
Original report summary
Daily changes in 1W at-the-money implied volatility spanned 21.09 volatility points between AVAX and TRX: AVAX fell 12.33 points while TRX rose 8.76 points versus the October 15 cutoff, according to Derivasys data. XRP and HYPE also registered declines. The divergence in daily repricing coincided with a narrower range of current 1W implied-volatility levels across the four altcoins.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 50.67% · Δ -3.83 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 52.16% · Δ -4.65 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 55.40% · Δ -12.33 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 27.87% · Δ +8.76 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 -1.42 vol pts · Δ -1.45 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 -0.08 vol pts · Δ -2.64 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 1.61 vol pts · Δ -0.16 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 4.38 vol pts · Δ +4.81 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 50.67% / 7D RV 56.34% · spread -5.67 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 52.16% / 7D RV 62.11% · spread -9.95 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 55.40% / 7D RV 77.93% · spread -22.53 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 27.87% / 7D RV 13.84% · spread +14.03 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 50.67% · Δ -3.83 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 52.16% · Δ -4.65 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 55.40% · Δ -12.33 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 27.87% · Δ +8.76 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 -1.42 vol pts · Δ -1.45 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 -0.08 vol pts · Δ -2.64 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 1.61 vol pts · Δ -0.16 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 4.38 vol pts · Δ +4.81 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.46 vol pts · Δ +0.03 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 2.30 vol pts · Δ -0.40 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 2.69 vol pts · Δ -0.40 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 0.48 vol pts · Δ -1.37 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 50.67% / 7D RV 56.34% · spread -5.67 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 52.16% / 7D RV 62.11% · spread -9.95 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 55.40% / 7D RV 77.93% · spread -22.53 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 27.87% / 7D RV 13.84% · spread +14.03 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; HYPE 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; AVAX 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; TRX 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 56.34% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 62.11% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 77.93% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 13.84% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 16 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 16 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 16 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 16 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.