01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The implied-versus-realised comparison differs from the convergence in outright options volatility: the XRP, HYPE and AVAX cohort's 1W ATM IV level range narrowed from 11.43 to 9.30 volatility points between October 17 and October 18 at 16:31 UTC. Within that comparison, HYPE's 1W ATM IV increase of 2.82 volatility points exceeded AVAX's 1W ATM IV increase of 0.69 volatility points. AVAX's 1W ATM IV level remained higher at 62.96% than HYPE's 1W ATM IV level of 53.66%. No qualifying constituent news was selected to contextualise these differences, so the measured moves remain unattributed. The aligned comparison excludes TRX because its previous cutoff differs from the cohort's baseline. Raw quote validation is unavailable and fit quality remains unassessed.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 46.22 vol points; absolute gap change +5.38 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 7.51 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 5.97 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -4.69 points to +2.82 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 62.96%.
HYPE had the highest 1W RR25 at -0.66 points, put-rich; XRP had the lowest at -2.70 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +2.74 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -17.60 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 46.22 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +2.74 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -17.60 vol points. The range between these spreads is 20.34 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint event comparison
Unavailable: complete aligned current measurements are missing.
Closest historical configurations
Validated frozen similarity receipt · method v2. Descriptive similarity only; no probability or outcome prediction.
Unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable; 0 eligible prior observations, minimum 20.
Neighbour stability
Omit one asset/metric feature or one whole asset, then compare with the original three neighbours using the same 0 prior configurations and empirical ranks. Coverage: 0 features across 0 assets.
Neighbour stability unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable. No omission cases evaluated.
Similarity training window and method
No current or future values enter the empirical training distribution. Every asset/metric receives equal weight; the same prior distribution ranks current and prior values, including ties and constant dimensions.
History window: Unavailable → Unavailable.
Cohort source SHA-256: 89526187590a6531749c3c4cfd9fd345e7d5d1d64d1d9a18138a58dad88b76f6. Training feature SHA-256: Unavailable.
Joint comparison method and history receipt
Each observation contains aligned 24-hour spot-index returns and 1W ATM IV, RR25 and BF25 changes for every covered asset. Matching requires the same direction category in every dimension; near-flat tolerances are ±0.10% spot, ±0.25 ATM IV points, and ±0.10 RR25/BF25 points.
Historical window: Unavailable to Unavailable. No joint rarity percentile is estimated. Causality is not assessed.
Historical source SHA-256: 89526187590a6531749c3c4cfd9fd345e7d5d1d64d1d9a18138a58dad88b76f6.
Cross-asset comparisons and term-structure receipts
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint comparisons
Each comparison uses its own complete aligned daily history. Counts describe matching direction patterns and simultaneous magnitude exceedances; no joint rarity percentile or causal claim is made.
Spot and ATM IV
Unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable. Eligible history: 0; minimum 20.
History window: Unavailable to Unavailable.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 9cfe4822bbe06b9199906dfcd758815200c0702a75bf2206b4868a0e44586c7e
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 30; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
ATM IV and RR25
Unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable. Eligible history: 0; minimum 20.
History window: Unavailable to Unavailable.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 5b2905921e89d14fb7e7921a3ad4113c9819384cdad487fb3e1a2d9c0aedc4fc
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 30; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
Spot, ATM IV, RR25 and BF25
Unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable. Eligible history: 0; minimum 20.
History window: Unavailable to Unavailable.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 89526187590a6531749c3c4cfd9fd345e7d5d1d64d1d9a18138a58dad88b76f6
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 30; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
One-month minus one-week ATM IV
Term-structure regime changes
A genuine sign crossing requires strictly opposite nonzero endpoints. An exactly zero slope is a zero touch. Version 2 separately requires both endpoints to clear opposite sides of ±0.50 volatility points for a material regime change. This deadband is provisional, not fit-calibrated or a rarity claim.
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | Regime evidence | History eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +0.63 | -0.71 | -1.34 | upward-sloping → inverted; material regime change | 40 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 35.0%. |
| HYPE | +4.46 | +2.17 | -2.29 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 43 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 79.1%. |
| AVAX | +0.35 | +0.86 | +0.51 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 37 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 16.2%. |
| TRX | -4.98 | +3.10 | +8.08 | inverted → upward-sloping; material regime change | 0 observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. |
Per-asset history receipts
XRP: 8030deb739e3edd9251faa4e388a27145e0d621ac4134761eed5d5c139547bce
HYPE: ef65087ca2316147f716094b4ca22734253d68d97941f1b4114a20a51c03f8e5
AVAX: eb3ad6c4f13577029f9180d30b8b0d3d756c13bc59a624f37606e2401bf0b232
TRX: 876c218bd6ce8306199c9506f69cc76c55e1a7a4314dd075fb6b0d151f6388d2
Daily market-wide observation
Unavailable: the stored seven-asset receipt does not validate.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 62.96 | XRP · 56.48 | HYPE · 53.66 | TRX · 16.74 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | HYPE · 2.82 | XRP · 1.87 | AVAX · 0.69 | TRX · -4.69 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 2.74 | XRP · -3.03 | HYPE · -10.75 | AVAX · -17.60 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | HYPE · -0.66 · up 1 | TRX · -1.67 · down 1 | AVAX · -2.25 · up 1 | XRP · -2.70 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | XRP · -2.70 · up 1 | AVAX · -2.25 · down 1 | TRX · -1.67 · up 1 | HYPE · -0.66 · down 1 |
| 24h spot-index return | TRX · -0.76 | XRP · -1.28 | HYPE · -1.60 | AVAX · -2.64 |
1W ATM IV change
-5.97 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-38.33 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+1.30 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-10.71 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -1.28% | $1.27 | 56.48% | +1.87 vol pts | 59.51% | -3.03 vol pts | 0.95× | Unavailable | -2.70 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | -1.60% | $77.23 | 53.66% | +2.82 vol pts | 64.41% | -10.75 vol pts | 0.83× | Unavailable | -0.66 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | -2.64% | $9.51 | 62.96% | +0.69 vol pts | 80.56% | -17.60 vol pts | 0.78× | Unavailable | -2.25 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.76% | $0.33 | 16.74% | -4.69 vol pts | 14.00% | +2.74 vol pts | 1.20× | Unavailable | -1.67 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 56.48% / +1.87 | 55.77% / +0.53 |
| HYPE | 53.66% / +2.82 | 55.83% / +0.53 |
| AVAX | 62.96% / +0.69 | 63.82% / +1.20 |
| TRX | 16.74% / -4.69 | 19.84% / +3.39 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: db1d0bc74e9e372ec4ba74a32ca95f0bd56463dbdaeb0800557b22f2c3ff5b73.
Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.
Canonical daily event facts and history eligibility
Exact UTC windows retain reported values and proof levels separately. Insufficient history, unavailable exact proof and incompatible sampling clocks have distinct reasons. Receipt SHA-256: e27fe78150c8952fab3119d061262d513555f5b8634f87c414be0a07477fbfb5.
Native fit-run IDs identify stored surface snapshots; they are not database revisions. Missing IDs, input pin hashes and database revisions remain unavailable.
| Asset | Previous native fit run / UTC time | Current native fit run / UTC time | Native input pin SHA-256 | Database source revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX | 688231 | 698299 | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| HYPE | 688232 | 698303 | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| TRX | 688299 | 698298 | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| XRP | 688230 | 698300 | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
Full canonical measurement input SHA-256: e27fe78150c8952fab3119d061262d513555f5b8634f87c414be0a07477fbfb5. The canonical JSON download above is available only when bound to this report artifact.
| Asset / metric | Exact UTC window | Reported change / return | Proof | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX 1W atmIv | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.69 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| AVAX 1W bf25 | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.02 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| AVAX 1W rr25 | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.22 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| AVAX 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | -2.64% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W atmIv | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | 2.82 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W bf25 | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.35 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W rr25 | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.47 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| HYPE 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | -1.6% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W atmIv | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | 1.87 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W bf25 | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.02 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W rr25 | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | -1.56 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| XRP 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | -1.28% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 30 eligible; minimum 20; available. |
| TRX 1W atmIv | 2026-10-17T16:41:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | -4.69 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 0 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 30 |
| TRX 1W bf25 | 2026-10-17T16:41:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | -1.07 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 0 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 30 |
| TRX 1W rr25 | 2026-10-17T16:41:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | -6.77 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 0 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 30 |
| TRX 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-17T16:41:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.76% | unavailable; invalid-or-incompatible-spot-proof | 0 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 30 |
Original reported source-provenance diagnostics
AVAX: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
HYPE: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
XRP: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
TRX: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
XRP 1W IV 56.48% / 7D RV 59.51% · spread -3.03 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 53.66% / 7D RV 64.41% · spread -10.75 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 62.96% / 7D RV 80.56% · spread -17.60 vol pts
Original report summary
XRP and AVAX define a 14.57 volatility-point range in one-week ATM implied volatility minus seven-day realised volatility across the aligned XRP, HYPE and AVAX cohort at the October 18 cutoff, according to Derivasys data. Across that cohort, XRP's one-week implied-minus-seven-day-realised spread of -3.03 volatility points was higher than AVAX's corresponding spread of -17.60 volatility points. These current spread differences do not establish daily widening or whether options are cheap or expensive.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 56.48% · Δ +1.87 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 53.66% · Δ +2.82 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 62.96% · Δ +0.69 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 16.74% · Δ -4.69 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 -2.70 vol pts · Δ -1.56 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 -0.66 vol pts · Δ +0.47 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 -2.25 vol pts · Δ -0.22 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -1.67 vol pts · Δ -6.77 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 56.48% / 7D RV 59.51% · spread -3.03 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 53.66% / 7D RV 64.41% · spread -10.75 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 62.96% / 7D RV 80.56% · spread -17.60 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 16.74% / 7D RV 14.00% · spread +2.74 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 56.48% · Δ +1.87 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 53.66% · Δ +2.82 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 62.96% · Δ +0.69 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 16.74% · Δ -4.69 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 -2.70 vol pts · Δ -1.56 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 -0.66 vol pts · Δ +0.47 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 -2.25 vol pts · Δ -0.22 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -1.67 vol pts · Δ -6.77 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.88 vol pts · Δ +0.02 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 2.68 vol pts · Δ +0.35 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.61 vol pts · Δ +0.02 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 1.81 vol pts · Δ -1.07 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 56.48% / 7D RV 59.51% · spread -3.03 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 53.66% / 7D RV 64.41% · spread -10.75 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 62.96% / 7D RV 80.56% · spread -17.60 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 16.74% / 7D RV 14.00% · spread +2.74 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; HYPE 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; AVAX 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; TRX 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 59.51% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 64.41% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 80.56% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 14.00% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 18 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 18 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 18 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 18 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.