01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The comparison retains both native endpoint levels and their matching prior cutoff.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 41.92 vol points; absolute gap change -4.30 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.76 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 4.07 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -0.10 points to +4.66 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 63.32%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +1.90 points, call-rich; AVAX had the lowest at -1.09 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +7.66 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -17.24 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 41.92 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +7.66 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -17.24 vol points. The range between these spreads is 24.90 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint event comparison
Unavailable: complete aligned current measurements are missing.
Closest historical configurations
Validated frozen similarity receipt · method v2. Descriptive similarity only; no probability or outcome prediction.
Unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable; 0 eligible prior observations, minimum 20.
Neighbour stability
Omit one asset/metric feature or one whole asset, then compare with the original three neighbours using the same 0 prior configurations and empirical ranks. Coverage: 0 features across 0 assets.
Neighbour stability unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable. No omission cases evaluated.
Similarity training window and method
No current or future values enter the empirical training distribution. Every asset/metric receives equal weight; the same prior distribution ranks current and prior values, including ties and constant dimensions.
History window: Unavailable → Unavailable.
Cohort source SHA-256: 92021c35aac9e3b49ee9f60a95d9432620f8ee8b81e30288f2b0fccdb2b8b4da. Training feature SHA-256: Unavailable.
Joint comparison method and history receipt
Each observation contains aligned 24-hour spot-index returns and 1W ATM IV, RR25 and BF25 changes for every covered asset. Matching requires the same direction category in every dimension; near-flat tolerances are ±0.10% spot, ±0.25 ATM IV points, and ±0.10 RR25/BF25 points.
Historical window: Unavailable to Unavailable. No joint rarity percentile is estimated. Causality is not assessed.
Historical source SHA-256: 92021c35aac9e3b49ee9f60a95d9432620f8ee8b81e30288f2b0fccdb2b8b4da.
Cross-asset comparisons and term-structure receipts
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint comparisons
Each comparison uses its own complete aligned daily history. Counts describe matching direction patterns and simultaneous magnitude exceedances; no joint rarity percentile or causal claim is made.
Spot and ATM IV
Unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable. Eligible history: 0; minimum 20.
History window: Unavailable to Unavailable.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: bb32bee17e939f0997ea7f1d913a60167e9149ae990f3edcb90143dde22c27a1
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 138; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
ATM IV and RR25
Unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable. Eligible history: 0; minimum 20.
History window: Unavailable to Unavailable.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 3a917de0585c9b88d87a5fbc65d866859c348471b79685ff303e56bed35e8853
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 102; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
Spot, ATM IV, RR25 and BF25
Unavailable: current-measurements-unavailable. Eligible history: 0; minimum 20.
History window: Unavailable to Unavailable.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 92021c35aac9e3b49ee9f60a95d9432620f8ee8b81e30288f2b0fccdb2b8b4da
conflictingDays: 0; currentOrFuture: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; incompatibleClocks: 0; incompatibleDuration: 0; invalidMeasurements: 138; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 0
One-month minus one-week ATM IV
Term-structure regime changes
A genuine sign crossing requires strictly opposite nonzero endpoints. An exactly zero slope is a zero touch. Version 2 separately requires both endpoints to clear opposite sides of ±0.50 volatility points for a material regime change. This deadband is provisional, not fit-calibrated or a rarity claim.
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | Regime evidence | History eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | -0.71 | -0.28 | +0.43 | inverted; no sign crossing | 41 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 9.8%. |
| HYPE | +2.17 | +1.69 | -0.48 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 44 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 15.9%. |
| AVAX | +0.86 | +0.97 | +0.11 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 38 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 0.0%. |
| TRX | +3.10 | +0.07 | -3.03 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 39 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 84.6%. |
Per-asset history receipts
XRP: 458ac72e2f8e1d57bb6bd10a6895cdace776c56f0fa8d1b69070f7d8bc86c050
HYPE: d1d19cbff9fd26c0c6836534d11d5d8179f68071a195aa65866d50a8145fe27b
AVAX: 755dc8ecb88622ba3e69786171c648d63f4118e3d2833ccfdbb580c46f7b0e8a
TRX: e982cfe32612b8b760564297e71c85f2592143683a8daab49452c84d66214c45
Daily market-wide observation
Unavailable: constituent snapshot clocks differ. A seven-asset comparison requires identical current and previous cutoffs.
Constituent comparison cutoffs
- BTC: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC → 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
- ETH: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC → 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
- SOL: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC → 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
- XRP: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC → 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
- HYPE: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC → 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
- AVAX: 18 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC → 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
- TRX: 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC → 19 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 63.32 | XRP · 56.38 | HYPE · 54.48 | TRX · 21.40 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | TRX · 4.66 | HYPE · 0.82 | AVAX · 0.36 | XRP · -0.10 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 7.66 | XRP · -4.67 | HYPE · -11.07 | AVAX · -17.24 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 1.90 · up 3 | HYPE · -0.39 · down 1 | TRX · -0.71 · down 1 | AVAX · -1.09 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | AVAX · -1.09 · up 1 | TRX · -0.71 · up 1 | HYPE · -0.39 · up 1 | XRP · 1.90 · down 3 |
| 24h spot-index return | XRP · 2.51 | HYPE · 1.95 | AVAX · 1.23 | TRX · -0.38 |
1W ATM IV change
+4.07 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-34.03 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+2.45 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+15.53 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +2.51% | $1.30 | 56.38% | -0.10 vol pts | 61.05% | -4.67 vol pts | 0.92× | Unavailable | +1.90 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +1.95% | $78.84 | 54.48% | +0.82 vol pts | 65.55% | -11.07 vol pts | 0.83× | Unavailable | -0.39 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +1.23% | $9.63 | 63.32% | +0.36 vol pts | 80.56% | -17.24 vol pts | 0.79× | Unavailable | -1.09 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | -0.38% | $0.33 | 21.40% | +4.66 vol pts | 13.74% | +7.66 vol pts | 1.56× | Unavailable | -0.71 vol pts | Accepted fit · 6 expiries | Native fit: 19 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC (1 min before cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 56.38% / -0.10 | 56.10% / +0.33 |
| HYPE | 54.48% / +0.82 | 56.17% / +0.34 |
| AVAX | 63.32% / +0.36 | 64.29% / +0.47 |
| TRX | 21.40% / +4.66 | 21.47% / +1.63 |
05 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: ceefd386d3d0b32d78023ce37d91f89629fd1877b42740fdf7dde97b21a770e6.
Daily options-surface context unavailable: the stored receipt does not validate.
Canonical daily event facts and history eligibility
Exact UTC windows retain reported values and proof levels separately. Insufficient history, unavailable exact proof and incompatible sampling clocks have distinct reasons. Receipt SHA-256: c9de0443468fd22159a3b9b4b0dca5fcf61d532d49c4b20001abeb895aeb0a2a.
Native fit-run IDs identify stored surface snapshots; they are not database revisions. Missing IDs, input pin hashes and database revisions remain unavailable.
| Asset | Previous native fit run / UTC time | Current native fit run / UTC time | Native input pin SHA-256 | Database source revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX | 698299 | 708306 | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| HYPE | 698303 | 708308 | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| TRX | 698292 | 708301 | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
| XRP | 698300 | 708309 | Unavailable | Unavailable (not recorded) |
Full canonical measurement input SHA-256: c9de0443468fd22159a3b9b4b0dca5fcf61d532d49c4b20001abeb895aeb0a2a. The canonical JSON download above is available only when bound to this report artifact.
| Asset / metric | Exact UTC window | Reported change / return | Proof | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRX 1W atmIv | 2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:30:00+00:00 | 4.66 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 19 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 29; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2; overlapping-current-window: 1 |
| TRX 1W bf25 | 2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:30:00+00:00 | -0.06 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 19 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 29; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2; overlapping-current-window: 1 |
| TRX 1W rr25 | 2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:30:00+00:00 | 0.96 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 19 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 29; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2; overlapping-current-window: 1 |
| TRX 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:30:00+00:00 | -0.38% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 8 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. exact-spot-proof-unavailable: 27; incompatible-sampling-clocks: 13; invalid-or-incompatible-spot-proof: 1; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2 |
| AVAX 1W atmIv | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.36 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 45; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2 |
| AVAX 1W bf25 | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.3 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 45; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2 |
| AVAX 1W rr25 | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | 1.16 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 45; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2 |
| AVAX 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | 1.23% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. exact-spot-proof-unavailable: 28; incompatible-sampling-clocks: 17; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2 |
| HYPE 1W atmIv | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.82 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 47 |
| HYPE 1W bf25 | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.23 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 47 |
| HYPE 1W rr25 | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | 0.27 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 47 |
| HYPE 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | 1.95% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. exact-spot-proof-unavailable: 30; incompatible-sampling-clocks: 17 |
| XRP 1W atmIv | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.1 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 45; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2 |
| XRP 1W bf25 | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | -0.5 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 45; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2 |
| XRP 1W rr25 | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | 4.6 vol points | native-endpoint-measurement; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. incompatible-sampling-clocks: 45; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2 |
| XRP 1W spot 24h | 2026-10-18T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-19T16:31:00+00:00 | 2.51% | exact-index-endpoint-prices; available | 4 eligible; minimum 20; insufficient-history. exact-spot-proof-unavailable: 28; incompatible-sampling-clocks: 17; invalid-snapshot-clock: 2 |
Original reported source-provenance diagnostics
TRX: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
AVAX: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
HYPE: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
XRP: unavailable; source-provenance-unavailable. Original reported source hash: null; original reported source revision: null.
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
HYPE 1W ATM IV 54.48% · Δ +0.82 vol pts
XRP 1W ATM IV 56.38% · Δ -0.10 vol pts
HYPE minus XRP: signed spread -1.90 vol pts · spread Δ +0.92 vol pts
Comparison scope: selected range endpoints.
Absolute current level gap: 1.90 vol pts
Daily-change dispersion: 0.92 vol pts
Original report summary
The 1W ATM IV comparison shows HYPE changed by +0.82 volatility points, compared with XRP which changed by -0.10 volatility points.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 56.38% · Δ -0.10 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 54.48% · Δ +0.82 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 63.32% · Δ +0.36 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 21.40% · Δ +4.66 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 1.90 vol pts · Δ +4.60 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 -0.39 vol pts · Δ +0.27 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 -1.09 vol pts · Δ +1.16 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -0.71 vol pts · Δ +0.96 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 56.38% / 7D RV 61.05% · spread -4.67 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 54.48% / 7D RV 65.55% · spread -11.07 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 63.32% / 7D RV 80.56% · spread -17.24 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 21.40% / 7D RV 13.74% · spread +7.66 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 56.38% · Δ -0.10 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 54.48% · Δ +0.82 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 63.32% · Δ +0.36 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 21.40% · Δ +4.66 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 1.90 vol pts · Δ +4.60 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 -0.39 vol pts · Δ +0.27 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 -1.09 vol pts · Δ +1.16 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 -0.71 vol pts · Δ +0.96 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.38 vol pts · Δ -0.50 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 2.45 vol pts · Δ -0.23 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.31 vol pts · Δ -0.30 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 1.75 vol pts · Δ -0.06 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 56.38% / 7D RV 61.05% · spread -4.67 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 54.48% / 7D RV 65.55% · spread -11.07 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 63.32% / 7D RV 80.56% · spread -17.24 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 21.40% / 7D RV 13.74% · spread +7.66 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; HYPE 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; AVAX 19 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC; TRX 19 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 61.05% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 65.55% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 80.56% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 13.74% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 19 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 19 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 19 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 19 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.