Daily ETH options market report · 24-hour comparison

Ether options: 1w butterfly increases 0.38 volatility points

Name: ETH options surface changes for 2026-10-15
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

ETH 1W BF25 rose 0.38 vol points to 3.23 vol points over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 15 Oct 2026, 16:33 UTC · Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Snapshot · 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

ETHSpot-index 24h -0.24%1W ATM IV 43.65%1W RR25 -3.45 vol pts1W BF25 +3.23 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -5.40 vol pts

ETH1W ATM IV 43.65%1W BF25 Δ +0.38 vol pts

Full snapshot readings

ETHSpot-index 24h -0.24%1W ATM IV 43.65%1W RR25 -3.45 vol pts1W BF25 +3.23 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -5.40 vol pts

Lead move: ETH 1W BF25 Δ +0.38 vol pts → +3.23 vol pts · percentile rank 67.5% by absolute move · 1-day moves · full history (n=40).

Combined market read · daily observation window

The move in context.

ETH spot fell 0.24%; 1W ATM IV fell 1.63 volatility points to 43.65% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward puts (-0.52 points); BF25 wing premium increased (+0.38 points).

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 14 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 15 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Measured change since prior report

Prior comparison unavailable: the exact adjacent published edition could not be verified.

A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; this compares measured changes only.

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: ETH 1W BF25 ≥ 3.23 volatility points at 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 3.23; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: ETH 1W BF25 ≤ 2.85 volatility points at 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 3.23; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 cc8cc0ab30c6ffb2e78ea4f77d74d22acd604c35bbcfb14d5b39d979abc61d9a

Consumed endpoint proof: f94d5091c97cc6d0510af86eb597afb7eece6efd688bdf092c66f8b906fd3b4b

ETH:bf25:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.change; evaluation window 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00.
ETH:bf25:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=1W].bf25.change; evaluation window 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00.

Ether options: 1w butterfly increases 0.38 volatility points. BF25 term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. BF25; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Chart reading: ETH +0.38 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: Positive BF25 places average wing IV above ATM IV; negative BF25 places it below.
Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (ETH); RR25 moved toward puts (ETH); BF25 wing premium increased (ETH); 1W IV was below 7D RV (ETH).

The day in markets.

Thursday 15 October

Ether options: 1W butterfly increases 0.38 volatility points

Ether 1W BF25 rose 0.38 volatility points to 3.23 volatility points over the daily comparison ending October 15 at 16:31 UTC, according to Derivasys data. The comparison baseline is October 14 at 16:31 UTC. The butterfly increase ranked at the 67.5 percentile among 40 matching prior daily changes over August 29–October 14. The current 1W BF25 level ranked at the 93.2 percentile among 44 prior levels over that window, distinguishing an elevated level within the sample from a less exceptional daily change.

In Ether ecosystem news, The Defiant and Cointelegraph reported VanEck’s request to withdraw its Lido staked Ether ETF application. The Defiant separately reported direct ETH staking from four layer-2 networks through Lido’s interface, while Cointelegraph described Starknet’s vote on researching a possible independent L1. The latter two accounts remain provisional single-source reporting, and the Starknet vote does not establish an approved exit or migration. These developments provide context without an established causal link to the options changes.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -1.63 volatility points, to 43.65%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

Selected events

01
VanEck seeks to withdraw application for Lido staked Ether ETFCointelegraph · 01:21 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD
02
Lido Adds Direct ETH Staking From Four Layer 2s to Its InterfaceThe Defiant · 10:49 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD
03
Starknet opens vote on potential Ethereum L2 exit over quantum risksCointelegraph · 10:20 UTC
protocol · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 18OCT26: -3.53 USD (-0.15%) to 2429.14 USD

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 43.65%, 5.40 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 49.05%; 24-hour realised volatility was 81.58% and 30-day realised volatility was 46.47%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.71 volatility points to 46.27% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 52.44% (-0.09 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to -1.93 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.16 volatility points to 3.36 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.63 volatility points at 1W, to 43.65%.

24h spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -0.24% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -0.03% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 19OCT26, 6NOV26; removed 15OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

18OCT26, -3.31 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -1.63 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, -0.52 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, +0.38 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI rho move

27NOV26, +0.1130 param

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

25JUN27, +0.0986 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	43.65	45.28	-1.63 vol pts	-3.60%
2W	46.48	46.83	-0.35 vol pts	-0.75%
1M	48.68	48.84	-0.16 vol pts	-0.33%
3M	50.94	51.07	-0.13 vol pts	-0.25%
6M	52.44	52.53	-0.09 vol pts	-0.17%
9M	53.33	53.33	0.00 vol pts	0.00%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to -1.93 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-3.45	-2.93	-0.52 vol pts
2W	-2.81	-2.76	-0.05 vol pts
1M	-2.11	-2.18	+0.07 vol pts
3M	-0.92	-1.00	+0.08 vol pts
6M	-0.35	-0.31	-0.04 vol pts
9M	0.23	0.23	0.00 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 increased, averaging +0.16 volatility points to 3.36 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	3.23	2.85	+0.38 vol pts
2W	3.17	2.98	+0.19 vol pts
1M	3.61	3.36	+0.25 vol pts
3M	3.50	3.36	+0.14 vol pts
6M	3.27	3.43	-0.16 vol pts
9M	3.01	3.19	-0.18 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

ATM IV change

16OCT26, -10.03 vol pts

1.6d

ATM IV change

17OCT26, -4.20 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
16OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	2,428.66	-3.47 USD	38.30%	-10.03 vol pts	+2.08 vol pts	-0.72 vol pts
17OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	2,428.85	-3.55 USD	42.95%	-4.20 vol pts	+0.05 vol pts	-0.05 vol pts
18OCT26	2.6 days	2,429.14	-3.53 USD	38.57%	-4.49 vol pts	-0.54 vol pts	-0.26 vol pts
23OCT26	7.6 days	2,430.34	-3.67 USD	44.08%	-1.64 vol pts	-0.51 vol pts	+0.39 vol pts
30OCT26	14.6 days	2,431.87	-3.72 USD	46.60%	-0.42 vol pts	-0.04 vol pts	+0.20 vol pts
27NOV26	42.6 days	2,439.6	-3.99 USD	49.30%	-0.14 vol pts	+0.47 vol pts	-0.01 vol pts
25DEC26	70.6 days	2,448.31	-4.52 USD	50.14%	-0.18 vol pts	+0.14 vol pts	+0.32 vol pts
26MAR27	161.6 days	2,475.75	-5.64 USD	52.13%	-0.14 vol pts	-0.07 vol pts	-0.13 vol pts
25JUN27	252.6 days	2,506.53	-4.81 USD	53.11%	-0.02 vol pts	+0.02 vol pts	-0.20 vol pts
24SEP27	343.6 days	2,536.29	-4.65 USD	53.89%	+0.01 vol pts	-0.08 vol pts	-0.10 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

16OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

17OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

18OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

23OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

30OCT26wing steepening

27NOV26rotation towards calls

25DEC26parallel shift lower

26MAR27parallel shift lower

25JUN27parallel shift lower

24SEP27parallel shift higher

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

16OCT26

17OCT26

18OCT26

23OCT26

30OCT26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

ETH 30-day implied volatility was 2.9 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.59.

Implied-volatility premium

ETH 30-day ATM IV was 49.14%, against VIX at 16.87: a 32.27-point spread and 2.91× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

ETH reported crypto realised volatility was 31.62%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 10.30%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 7.5% of 252 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.594 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.274 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 14.59, 16.87 and 18.79.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 14 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1. Derivasys 30-calendar-day ATM IV uses ACT/365; crypto 20-calendar-day RV uses sqrt(365), SPX 20-US-session RV uses sqrt(252). Mixed annualisation is preserved. Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session returns. Provider Derivasys+yahoo_finance; sources Derivasys canonical index/surface, ^GSPC, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M. Ingested 2026-10-14T22:30:50.455123Z. Returned freshness fresh, ageSeconds 73860, evaluatedAt 2026-10-15T16:31:00Z; quality valid. IV spread and ratio percentiles are null, each with sampleCount 31. All metric observation timestamps are 2026-10-14T20:00:00Z.

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-14 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-15 16:31:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

ETH 1W BF25 3.23 vol pts · Δ +0.38 vol pts

ETH percentile rank 67.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-14

Original report summary

Ether 1W BF25 increased 0.38 volatility points to 3.23 volatility points against the October 14 16:31 UTC cutoff. This butterfly measure captures average 25-delta wing implied volatility relative to ATM implied volatility. The increase accompanied a 1.63-volatility-point decline in Ether 1W ATM implied volatility to 43.65% at October 15 16:31 UTC.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: ETH 1W ATM IV 43.65% · Δ -1.63 vol pts

Skew: ETH 1W RR25 -3.45 vol pts · Δ -0.52 vol pts

Relative value: ETH 1W IV 43.65% / 7D RV 49.05% · spread -5.40 vol pts

Vol

ETH 1W ATM IV 43.65% · Δ -1.63 vol ptspercentile rank 35.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-14

Skew

ETH 1W RR25 -3.45 vol pts · Δ -0.52 vol ptspercentile rank 20.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-14

Wings

ETH 1W BF25 3.23 vol pts · Δ +0.38 vol ptspercentile rank 67.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-14

IV versus RV

ETH 1W IV 43.65% / 7D RV 49.05% · spread -5.40 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 35.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-14

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 20.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-14

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 67.5% by absolute move · full history (n=40); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-14

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: cc8cc0ab30c6ffb2e78ea4f77d74d22acd604c35bbcfb14d5b39d979abc61d9a.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
ETH 1W atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c0c0f07f1281b39389821d22ca47f4e0cfc1f51bbd203c37b247b19ac456a2f0`
ETH 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4b738de711659b979a6430dc64208e7d6274a6f9d109b419ebefe4d2e91a1ef1`
ETH 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b84afc8b959c4512cabf12007f9b5b27cc2df6f5905a6a3224689d184448d665`
ETH 1W bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:837790a8a13a491d4878a25de995f15c4d9d88a25b2d0bc0c310346da6d637f9`
ETH 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d33e40e63d695c6363ac8da0961026eb3d8b17a15f37e87c6e0c6a8855828e5e`
ETH 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3dd9c50ec8fe68dcb3d71ffedecfcec87f5093d1eaf248ae19e8c63556813cac`
ETH 1W rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5bbd258f023cfbdd196fd0d7787da1fae2c04ecf10b1fa99f7ae53324cc7faa9`
ETH 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1cc4feeea9acf8ae0f4d414a6fa6d76da7464a6d73b6264f12e2d0156afaf7e4`
ETH 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:fdf0c3c4f80bd2652a57b147d5d51e319b7cae10676c3ed63426ecfc4ec0214c`
ETH 2W atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:14671bb6745f5b39ef6a0193e4d21c520ed3b09d7a225df080ad3dc8085c4055`
ETH 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c134c87a92c02df8f506f103d1aa9f5584638d118c5315e46301c02cc0dd406e`
ETH 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b43f9499d4f10e2a9bd9e893162901ed4727e8f83fe2f7264d95eb79de8500ed`
ETH 2W bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6d7e175131e7398c1eca282b9e3c16f44796b025a7fc5f0ceb5573bb289abf90`
ETH 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7817a27283fa0bf09589236fd5513409fc258a83aa215e88420d2fdbd04c7824`
ETH 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cb28e4f6fa0da7d56baead0861ff6a676ea84977a1b5536c5437cfb9a4f5611b`
ETH 2W rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e14c75447063ab53b5d741a7c58bcf9f8c3a1b79adde456900decbadc275a902`
ETH 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:76ed992fc23dcf4917b7ea62cfb92ca6fc04629e9a09908c806c7bafe519e931`
ETH 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a66ee883351f2d259bf3ae9179664946d0d14e4ee602d1a246ba2f1c228dd4a5`
ETH 1M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:bdeb1f7acf76274e71ef2f317c7d851bd40b655352f1399cdba613f51aa30e2a`
ETH 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8f5c2ffdba3a91170ada2ff41082cf56f1060d8bf16111910fa7f53c1e485076`
ETH 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4a571b6cc7f5073fb78cfaf2df1768dcfa6265277e210e8343f2c00c905d34c2`
ETH 1M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8507ad12a9fe2f6133b1b769a8203fdebaf5818bc492709a75f41bfd7cef8c12`
ETH 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d8bf7cf77bb255fa7d9fcc963eb70850fb263143eec1471555eff49dfdc27672`
ETH 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0db1e68f4dedf9d62555df5ed66c8ad17b0def2f6b94c8b3209c7ffb824a7b13`
ETH 1M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:80b9545d83f2e081f799ed8ce18e04f3e93f275ed9132d0989ba498a793a4cf2`
ETH 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c3bbcbf87959b14a672c86ada3b1801a26429f59fd3c62c5d41e47e93ca86dba`
ETH 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0e35e3506d5ac51cfe9ab79eee622c724447d5db0de86bd57635ec1d6d57ea57`
ETH 3M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:fbf34defc308198aaa220eec9101f57fb81f77e3570319da002c9d34682f42af`
ETH 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:67cd6eaada16ea7826b04cd931c0bf444c4af95e525a785bcf83cda3e1f9c06a`
ETH 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d29910887ef38dcc406579041d069241e2023ed5b4677fb8f806da71978ad472`
ETH 3M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e3aa8917fbb3b2458f9c8da18c6b5ba0923a4ff95f23e25874576e657a1ca831`
ETH 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:fd825eebcbd9f7fde483d60783c310c4b8b21955876881d52087b5c8622c6569`
ETH 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0f56f15498901dd98ee3046178c11aa4afef5e8d8100be1543f0eac2c8b6f9b0`
ETH 3M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:123252c6e9dea7e0237fa9096637e64a1407abc3700b16d750e7453491bf3a66`
ETH 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:931a798711ad604a76d10d3a2469b93a9a3b978601257817e935ea304df15826`
ETH 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cddb938c58d5505c35d9ae694adce7406a9dee41454d1b530cf64c461257821e`
ETH 6M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6123ee4b42de924a099c89732cfaeee445d00083acbce954fbf35494905f91fa`
ETH 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:140d76f19dd2e8aa4d967834318971df93817d3789c45998e83d17b89b5200c3`
ETH 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d5e9e105017c4fe828a17fdf30ebdc944f7364508a8eaf7b485a420072d799cf`
ETH 6M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:daf335d5886a672fca2849e8a5907293d1a7ab22dc00ccd3c7d99dd076bfe976`
ETH 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0d81d6a7f94e7bc074f17a78aab038cf7af399e82bcb6bdbfe6ccba9445b139d`
ETH 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5195ac6b6c333521de27570a827bc8f945c704920012df8e608cd8b0e2464701`
ETH 6M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4334946796d543b1782a195aa219988d3a099378eb0e8e71743691a33fccb25a`
ETH 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5fe9d1070abf69df9e173699fb6a8343ac3b024bdb83cf26c4d0d6c8377566c9`
ETH 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:df856576b5c6aa50b6fc850531f2dd1d37efd2642f8d94666c59fa92e5991114`
ETH 9M atmIv	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a79418be026011731141739409d8d69ab6aac40ada4ffe9280b8d2e026c43069`
ETH 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e893b9e76a4b16a8f363e8d16a96c9c22f7b9ff52f06e1efe1a6f2eb15637820`
ETH 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ffb9d31e5cd1f8d060e16a91b1dc6cffe1b41bd0c5a203f08822584a94f740d8`
ETH 9M bf25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ce1f62f98bb0aac1cb30415894252798b382c4ad76d91f408d5fa381f48ae221`
ETH 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:762d68b8d78c23af382dd53f0e806a890e7869234aea655f94d8f411cf2f0375`
ETH 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:62579d883099732d639a210035db1fbcdf218f16e9ec7c4001c679b1a39b32ce`
ETH 9M rr25	move30d	24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9644f9ccdbc4c8cc86db9f02a5ec4e26110b3a9eb8487ac3a4400097001917d0`
ETH 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:22febaec4dc4cf984b33395e925b7da26eca270a77810f609b886d5625489bef`
ETH 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b673ae278eed216f4d70013744513357c185be49f3aecc523b85df6c45d9dd36`
ETH 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 27NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 25JUN27.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
16OCT26	+0.01140	-0.01500	+0.08570	+0.04090	-0.03220	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
17OCT26	+0.02880	-0.02260	+0.00650	+0.01240	-0.11970	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
18OCT26	+0.01810	-0.01520	-0.04090	-0.01790	-0.06270	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
23OCT26	+0.01430	+0.00130	+0.02560	+0.01440	-0.09050	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26	+0.00540	+0.00150	+0.02550	+0.01350	-0.04050	wing steepening
27NOV26	+0.01770	-0.01600	+0.11300	+0.06630	-0.05010	rotation towards calls
25DEC26	+0.01650	-0.00530	+0.05660	+0.03890	-0.07660	parallel shift lower
26MAR27	-0.03480	+0.02460	-0.04850	-0.06200	+0.07640	parallel shift lower
25JUN27	-0.04020	+0.01850	-0.01580	-0.05830	+0.09860	parallel shift lower
24SEP27	-0.02330	+0.01150	-0.01390	-0.03580	+0.04970	parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-ETH ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma16OCT26, 0.0102 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay16OCT26, -12.08962 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.00187 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 9.487996 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.012035 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
ETH	49.05%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

ETH · Available · Surface cutoff 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 14 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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The move in context.

Measured change since prior report

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market events

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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