Daily ETH options market report · 24-hour comparison

Ether options show lower 2w BF25 butterfly

Name: ETH options surface changes for 2026-11-02
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

ETH spot fell 0.64%; 2W ATM IV fell 0.95 volatility points; Skew moved toward calls (+0.45 vol points).

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 02 Nov 2026, 19:27 UTC

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 2 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

Generated timestamp: 2026-11-02T17:35:34+00:00

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-11-02 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-11-01 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-11-02 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

ETHSpot-index 24h -0.64%1W ATM IV 53.62%1W RR25 -6.19 vol pts1W BF25 +1.63 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +3.46 vol pts

Notable move: ETH 2W BF25 Δ -0.34 vol pts → +1.64 vol pts · percentile rank 96.4% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=28).

Ether options show lower 2w BF25 butterfly. BF25 term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. BF25; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 1 Nov, 17:31 UTC to 2 Nov, 17:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-11-01: “Ether options show lower 1m BF25 butterfly”

Previous publication cutoff 1 Nov, 17:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 1 Nov, 17:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 640facf728fb5d4958215d80412525bd152a655db68ef204263a8667db3d5b4e

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-11-01 daily edition.

ETH 2W ATM IV: prior change -0.82 → current change -0.95 volatility points; same direction.
ETH spot-index return: prior change +0.87 → current change -0.64 percent; direction reversed.
ETH 2W RR25: prior change +1.21 → current change +0.45 volatility points; same direction.
ETH 2W BF25: prior change -0.03 → current change -0.34 volatility points; same direction.

ETH 1M BF25 ≤ 1.74 volatility points (hold the observed endpoint) at 2 Nov, 17:31 UTC: met (observed 1.56 volatility points).
ETH 1M BF25 ≥ 2.00 volatility points (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 2 Nov, 17:31 UTC: not met (observed 1.56 volatility points).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: ETH 2W BF25 ≤ 1.64 volatility points at 3 Nov, 17:31 UTC. Current level 1.64; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: ETH 2W BF25 ≥ 1.98 volatility points at 3 Nov, 17:31 UTC. Current level 1.64; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 655d516381b9deea681ab6adb8972bcc346d4300b06bbf686b5ae1192d60468c

Prior artifact: /v1/eth/daily/2026-11-01/640facf728fb5d4958215d80412525bd152a655db68ef204263a8667db3d5b4e.json · SHA-256 640facf728fb5d4958215d80412525bd152a655db68ef204263a8667db3d5b4e

Consumed endpoint proof: ffd44e1cb1ecb0458207827396ca8e49799b285b5a0bcea795669e3a8dc1f51f

ETH:bf25:2W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=2W].bf25.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=2W].bf25.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=2W].bf25.change; evaluation window 2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00.
ETH:bf25:2W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=2W].bf25.previous; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=2W].bf25.current; rows[asset=ETH].report.tenors[tenor=2W].bf25.change; evaluation window 2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00.

Chart notes

Chart reading: ETH -0.34 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: Positive BF25 places average wing IV above ATM IV; negative BF25 places it below.
Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (ETH); RR25 moved toward calls (ETH); BF25 wing premium decreased (ETH); 1W IV was above 7D RV (ETH).

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Monday 2 November

Ether options show lower 2W BF25 butterfly

The 2W BF25 butterfly change for ETH was -0.34 volatility points over the stored comparison. The Block reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitmine adds […] ETH as Tom Lee flags muted Binance hack reaction”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

The Block reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitmine adds […] ETH as Tom Lee flags muted Binance hack reaction”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Bitmine adds 8,573 ETH as Tom Lee flags muted Binance hack reactionThe Block · 14:40 UTC

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at -0.95 volatility points, to 51.45%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 53.62%, 3.46 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 50.16%; 24-hour realised volatility was 44.05% and 30-day realised volatility was 46.58%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.75 volatility points to 51.91% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 52.33% (-0.35 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.49 volatility points to -4.38 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.19 volatility points to 1.59 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.95 volatility points at 2W, to 51.45%.

24h spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -0.64% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

ETH spot-index return was -2.96% over seven days.

Universe roll: no additions; removed 2NOV26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

6NOV26, +3.04 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, +0.97 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, -0.95 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

2W, -0.34 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

5NOV26, -0.1267 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

6NOV26, +0.0393 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	53.62	54.10	-0.48 vol pts	-0.89%
2W	51.45	52.40	-0.95 vol pts	-1.81%
1M	50.67	51.48	-0.81 vol pts	-1.57%
3M	51.14	51.96	-0.82 vol pts	-1.58%
6M	52.33	52.68	-0.35 vol pts	-0.66%
9M	52.97	53.24	-0.27 vol pts	-0.51%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.49 volatility points to -4.38 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-6.19	-7.16	+0.97 vol pts
2W	-5.90	-6.35	+0.45 vol pts
1M	-4.76	-4.90	+0.14 vol pts
3M	-3.35	-3.85	+0.50 vol pts
6M	-1.71	-2.11	+0.40 vol pts
9M	-0.98	-1.18	+0.20 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity by standard tenor.

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.19 volatility points to 1.59 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	1.63	1.92	-0.29 vol pts
2W	1.64	1.98	-0.34 vol pts
1M	1.56	1.74	-0.18 vol pts
3M	1.59	1.65	-0.06 vol pts
6M	1.53	1.59	-0.06 vol pts
9M	1.39	1.39	0.00 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

Smile rotation

3NOV26, -33.05 vol pts

1.6d

ATM IV change

4NOV26, +3.68 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
3NOV26Expiry effect	0.6 days	2,253.39	-12.53 USD	52.25%	+4.80 vol pts	-5.26 vol pts	-0.23 vol pts
4NOV26Expiry effect	1.6 days	2,253.57	-12.36 USD	62.92%	+3.68 vol pts	+0.59 vol pts	-0.65 vol pts
5NOV26	2.6 days	2,253.68	-12.23 USD	59.43%	+1.07 vol pts	+0.59 vol pts	+0.14 vol pts
6NOV26	3.6 days	2,253.85	-11.83 USD	57.10%	+1.58 vol pts	+1.69 vol pts	-0.28 vol pts
13NOV26	10.6 days	2,255.41	-12.01 USD	52.31%	-0.68 vol pts	+0.48 vol pts	-0.30 vol pts
20NOV26	17.6 days	2,257.06	-11.87 USD	50.90%	-0.79 vol pts	+0.20 vol pts	-0.37 vol pts
27NOV26	24.6 days	2,258.54	-11.79 USD	50.47%	-0.87 vol pts	-0.27 vol pts	-0.24 vol pts
25DEC26	52.6 days	2,266.74	-11.95 USD	51.07%	-0.75 vol pts	+0.83 vol pts	-0.10 vol pts
29JAN27	87.6 days	2,275.99	-12.21 USD	51.07%	-0.87 vol pts	+0.46 vol pts	-0.06 vol pts
26MAR27	143.6 days	2,291.43	-12.34 USD	51.83%	-0.43 vol pts	+0.55 vol pts	-0.17 vol pts
25JUN27	234.6 days	2,320.06	-14.12 USD	52.74%	-0.31 vol pts	+0.25 vol pts	+0.03 vol pts
24SEP27	325.6 days	2,350	-14.35 USD	53.20%	-0.23 vol pts	+0.14 vol pts	-0.03 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

3NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

4NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

5NOV26wing steepening

6NOV26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

13NOV26parallel shift lower

20NOV26parallel shift lower · wing flattening

27NOV26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts

25DEC26rotation towards calls

29JAN27parallel shift lower

26MAR27parallel shift lower

25JUN27parallel shift lower

24SEP27parallel shift lower

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

3NOV26

4NOV26

5NOV26

6NOV26

13NOV26

20NOV26

27NOV26

25DEC26

29JAN27

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

ETH 30-day implied volatility was 2.7 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.67.

Implied-volatility premium

ETH 30-day ATM IV was 52.68%, against VIX at 19.42: a 33.26-point spread and 2.71× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

ETH reported crypto realised volatility was 39.80%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 11.78%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 17.8% of 264 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.674 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.385 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 19.25, 19.42 and 20.78.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 30 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 99.5% coverage over 24 hours, 99.5% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-11-02 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-11-01 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-11-02 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 2 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

ETH 2W BF25 1.64 vol pts · Δ -0.34 vol pts

ETH percentile rank 96.4% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=28); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

Original report summary

ETH 2W BF25 butterfly is 1.64 percent, compared with 1.98 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: ETH 1W ATM IV 53.62% · Δ -0.48 vol pts

Skew: ETH 1W RR25 -6.19 vol pts · Δ +0.97 vol pts

Relative value: ETH 1W IV 53.62% / 7D RV 50.16% · spread +3.46 vol pts

Vol

ETH 1W ATM IV 53.62% · Δ -0.48 vol ptspercentile rank 14.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=28); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

Skew

ETH 1W RR25 -6.19 vol pts · Δ +0.97 vol ptspercentile rank 42.9% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=28); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

Wings

ETH 1W BF25 1.63 vol pts · Δ -0.29 vol ptspercentile rank 81.8% by absolute move · full history (n=55); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-30 to 2026-11-01

IV versus RV

ETH 1W IV 53.62% / 7D RV 50.16% · spread +3.46 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 14.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=28); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 42.9% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=28); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-10-02 to 2026-11-01

ETH 1W BF25: percentile rank 81.8% by absolute move · full history (n=55); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-30 to 2026-11-01

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 655d516381b9deea681ab6adb8972bcc346d4300b06bbf686b5ae1192d60468c.

Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
ETH 1W atmIv	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:660954692d825e9c3d2e293dea07b1035ff232626c4f1d2d86ab4548fcbb992e`
ETH 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a95ab49ee73704991a14e7a7b87ded9c82a980b19853fcf8324047484663f887`
ETH 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b29abf9e339ed59b3c36187f33ac447ab1216d88eb4258dcfa7105615095627b`
ETH 1W bf25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4240ceb5f5c902cc6fafa2f356a4f05ab9b37bdbd2c1486a04abb9a953be50b2`
ETH 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ccd0ee00eb23ae2cfd56a0c51d6a788d086a1f2297ca7e639d34656822922866`
ETH 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7ca8fefecad49a7c4d7189e2792c7b3f4bc08311f34d05dee6e61bc5ad47e3ad`
ETH 1W rr25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5dabce5310cdfa97f1ebfa74de66a52e66f787aa7272afbab7bb3b0b9d47f0fc`
ETH 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1391da065b5c1564a00779fc5b588aeb62fa424de3aec6c8304bb8cdbb90ce53`
ETH 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:93110f8eed31c7de2deaf5c817cbf7ec85109b93aac18b3acbeda55364856ce6`
ETH 2W atmIv	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2346a6e2960a2ac803b29531584d85138524a9c91b73d8b495bc23d3a7514b4a`
ETH 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:01fc7c31ffa116580f83e0b33d05d3668ba9b6c62ea6e6d74bcb590710f23ac1`
ETH 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3ab96268d6abc2f13f6308f42e3e28a7f8a1f75cb867a4580cfd22b6040e309c`
ETH 2W bf25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d78334d26d6f07edf93f40d7b347037ae83231c404bac454769da1f5ef6b6a25`
ETH 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:51516b66cafc0b16f75378a4eeb9c40e1f6d11f086ccab560ffb0d166ff839df`
ETH 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d1c6d682aa13c1fd09269d907332eb470d2d0f8e5cc19c966a0e6bf2e287e4ba`
ETH 2W rr25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3b23dafbca32633286a59b189b589a6abf4c4b5e55c089662860e5233ec6c16c`
ETH 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:dda0b32b91712d99142f3d7d7524a5f7260e7db4845af7a2db4137a14ff00413`
ETH 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2ca9ca5599a2c31c4b2ba9be0da25e2b58f090da469dbaa43eb9f900ccb26eb8`
ETH 1M atmIv	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:938c68644907303f32ed4afaf8073a37eaf70676d090369eef7cc02117974089`
ETH 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4d37ea401f42cdd5570ebcfba0e483fc71ee9de24e40d158d2cc05c396cdb8fb`
ETH 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c9fe2bb1560b25613636a62b591f280e5d1c549fb86554246bfc468761892770`
ETH 1M bf25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:edcff411fb9330f0e1ee294022f9dd0a6000b2d32bd5e19b5081b829c5f27bba`
ETH 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d919bc90ed168cf136e0646c11c3e942890ac997336aab66de5e4f2e4f609320`
ETH 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:61ab21c911e86c7a350bd3174f52491cfa701015c914c743608aa1f63f444da8`
ETH 1M rr25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:83088083e0f644dafa34d3b7680e8941b1e85b89be76b5363d3d560583d10148`
ETH 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:39cf2ffaa4c367d07f34164a187e80232507c4e901cdc44f993dfe830fa91f22`
ETH 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:af91c99ae5de0441f1a088a54036aa8b8a577c0646b3e327688c93b7a24a6e15`
ETH 3M atmIv	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:bc870ada6187dd0d0fd996745e258bdfca9247dc1c220fdaa86c2ae291ce3a5a`
ETH 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d66256d0f334667bbd2100ae17d5970b90c24e472c267b9e0977264fe2a8d756`
ETH 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f757fba58a1b47804a68da1c863e1c7ca042168c424e3f8ae9a3732048ee96ef`
ETH 3M bf25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:85ab65ea5195c9d23537b2002723fa9ea38b6fe1686d59fe47504afbe8daba13`
ETH 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0db74a7a01c1d8d14ee24e50ec8dccec88f1b890a7d6c35d38f32bd3123bf5ba`
ETH 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:55e8b1a2a582613b8ccf30dc48adbac800092e83b91ca5f6d44dafa35ecdf9ce`
ETH 3M rr25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2b20703854acec508bd5556abd0e9f6704d4e3a531371518da461117665e58a5`
ETH 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:71931ecb125dee868c46debd42b08b95f27d78e0ecdcce254f71f461adfe8988`
ETH 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:baa1e73813419a19fee8e0cabd882372e2d014f3c33a14d537b14f207687a547`
ETH 6M atmIv	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5dd321d10c010deba16b12dc538676c9eaf415caf3bfcad89cd63253d6600fb7`
ETH 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:91705f4ebc7eefa249dad63be8aa507f216000e4d324f697b80c84d8029e9802`
ETH 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4c1ffb131fbcea16881e584749d0982cba5656eccffae0bb17dbead2a06acc75`
ETH 6M bf25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c5a2511aab0fd846b565b31eb38fc5530eae520002df547e1a75f190283df3bc`
ETH 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f962f5ae77f0749e4827f5803c5c332fc41c2be49759748933e4bcef265135f4`
ETH 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:295f381c55dc6bccb38b6797bbbe381e893ad2076064e9fb3772fbff0b136d80`
ETH 6M rr25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2387a7d77a7d17d685b69390ac6ccf000fad631856f0f360d132ae136ff823a2`
ETH 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:061c972e3f242089dddfc982c4d9d49ef0e5a65b582625f643290fd33c411a6d`
ETH 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5bc99d0fe74ca625fe4dda04b19c169e2db14a18668a8e0b6138c10a4e8603a3`
ETH 9M atmIv	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2cf96870156ec3f5e65dfac297e6c93aa42c39ef38938b481258f11be47e2c53`
ETH 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8c76d24ea7ceca14166f29477c3ff1e9e89b87760da33f83e4b52db337aa7254`
ETH 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b15490bd4301d133e6d1e6bd53ed6af4f63326967728a552cb78ce2ed9ad0348`
ETH 9M bf25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e6262da56df7ea65bbb80735ef7fa0426b681d05c83b8a4f441f635a698da46f`
ETH 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4906348684b008c071e7fce4571a13b7a02b3504c6590b4d2dac202dd0e81d79`
ETH 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:413c45476b7fb4e04e5fe8825c56afdec3175647d1078d519fec05cff5499be7`
ETH 9M rr25	move30d	28 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e20a14e3872ccec44fe3c9c6a8f3964e97958679860df04853438f2af85e8091`
ETH 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	55 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b7721cce79583a849d2a8b90d134bec30585beadffa8a23abfdfbf8ba77cb1e0`
ETH 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	60 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-30 → 2026-11-01 2026-08-30T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5a91eebf6ba6aba024888674908c4a4d34bc15587263a7236c8c8b24938e3462`
ETH 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
ETH 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 6NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 5NOV26.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
3NOV26	-0.03370	-0.00570	+0.04460	-0.00280	+0.30770	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
4NOV26	-0.02100	-0.01520	-0.01990	-0.03990	+0.19220	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
5NOV26	+0.03290	-0.01650	+0.01430	+0.01110	-0.12670	wing steepening
6NOV26	-0.00500	-0.01230	+0.03930	+0.01410	+0.07260	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
13NOV26	+0.00390	-0.01760	+0.00830	+0.00520	+0.03610	parallel shift lower
20NOV26	0.00000	-0.01770	+0.00820	+0.00970	+0.05370	parallel shift lower, wing flattening
27NOV26	+0.00590	-0.01760	+0.00780	+0.01590	+0.02460	parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
25DEC26	+0.01610	-0.01740	+0.00780	-0.00760	-0.03680	rotation towards calls
29JAN27	+0.01250	-0.01310	-0.01690	-0.02100	-0.03160	parallel shift lower
26MAR27	+0.00780	-0.01550	-0.00820	-0.01990	+0.00570	parallel shift lower
25JUN27	+0.04740	-0.01900	-0.03250	-0.01240	-0.12060	parallel shift lower
24SEP27	+0.04470	-0.01780	-0.03520	-0.01770	-0.10330	parallel shift lower

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-ETH ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma3NOV26, 0.008332 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay3NOV26, -15.823145 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001825 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 8.579657 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.010179 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
ETH	50.16%	Available	100% / 99.5% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

ETH · Available · Surface cutoff 02 Nov 2026, 17:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 02 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 01 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical ETH index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical ETH-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-ETH ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

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Previous publication · research context

Prior watch: measured outcome

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market event

What changed across the ETH volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

BF25 convexity by standard tenor.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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