01 · Market read
The day across the three live Derivasys markets.
One-week ATM IV declined in all three major coins, led by Ether’s 8.62-point fall and followed by Bitcoin’s 7.15-point fall. Solana’s smaller 4.27-point decline left its 50.11% one-week ATM IV 20.55 volatility points above Bitcoin’s 29.56%, widening relative implied-volatility dispersion.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 20.55 vol points; absolute gap change +2.88 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.35 vol points. Stored daily changes across 3 assets.
SOL stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.88 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.
This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.
Cross-sectional thesis
Where the complex is diverging.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 20.55 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 4.35 vol pts across the complex.
BTC has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at -7.20 vol points; ETH has the lowest at -9.40 vol points. The range between these spreads is 2.20 vol points.
Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.85 (20 observations).
1W ATM IV change
+2.88 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-14.98 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+3.61 points from the group median
Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | SOL · 50.11 | ETH · 44.54 | BTC · 29.56 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | SOL · -4.27 | BTC · -7.15 | ETH · -8.62 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | BTC · -7.20 | ETH · -9.40 | — |
| Highest 1W RR25 | SOL · 3.87 | BTC · 0.26 · up 1 | ETH · -0.23 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | ETH · -0.23 · up 1 | BTC · 0.26 · down 1 | SOL · 3.87 |
| 24h spot performance | ETH · 3.03 | BTC · 1.16 | — |
02 · Macro and crypto diary
Macro and crypto context
17 September 2026
All major-coin one-week ATM IV measures declined, while Solana retained a much higher level than Bitcoin.
Macro
The Federal Reserve issued its FOMC statement during the observation window.
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.
The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.
BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.0–3.1 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.
| Asset | 30d ATM IV | VIX spread | IV / VIX | Reported crypto RV | Reported SPX RV | RV spread percentile | 30-session correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 34.96% | +17.25 vol pts | 1.97× | 36.01% | 8.89% | percentile rank 48.9% | +0.281 |
| ETH | 50.91% | +33.20 vol pts | 2.87× | 40.84% | 8.89% | percentile rank 16.4% | +0.178 |
| SOL | 54.38% | +36.67 vol pts | 3.07× | 51.00% | 8.89% | percentile rank 28.4% | +0.411 |
BTC: RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.
ETH: RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.
SOL: RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.
As of 16 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.
03 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 29.56% / -7.15 | 32.78% / -2.91 | 36.45% / -1.26 | 38.03% / -0.84 |
| ETH | 44.54% / -8.62 | 49.02% / -2.96 | 52.95% / -1.01 | 54.47% / -0.45 |
| SOL | 50.11% / -4.27 | 54.91% / +0.64 | 55.87% / +1.25 | Unavailable |
05 · Constituent evidence
Audit the independently published source artifacts.
17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC
Read the BTC report17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC
Read the ETH report17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC
Read the SOL reportEvidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 4350e699f5b89ccf754f0da8357c41623710abc4e2b50be99965113d958eaad0.
Major Coins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Major-coin one-week ATM IV fell across Bitcoin, Ether and Solana, but the reset was uneven. Ether one-week ATM IV fell 8.62 volatility points to 44.54%, Bitcoin one-week ATM IV fell 7.15 volatility points to 29.56%, and Solana one-week ATM IV fell 4.27 volatility points to 50.11%. That left Solana’s one-week ATM IV 20.55 volatility points above Bitcoin’s, widening the level spread by 2.88 volatility points.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 29.56% · Δ -7.15 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 44.54% · Δ -8.62 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 50.11% · Δ -4.27 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 0.26 vol pts · Δ +1.48 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -0.23 vol pts · Δ +0.23 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 3.87 vol pts · Δ +2.83 vol pts
IV level gap: 1W ATM IV level gap 20.55 vol pts (SOL 50.11% versus BTC 29.56%) · SOL minus BTC spread Δ +2.88 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 29.56% · Δ -7.15 vol ptspercentile rank 95.9% by absolute move · full history (n=146)
ETH 1W ATM IV 44.54% · Δ -8.62 vol ptspercentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · full history (n=30)
SOL 1W ATM IV 50.11% · Δ -4.27 vol ptspercentile rank 70.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=20)
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 0.26 vol pts · Δ +1.48 vol ptspercentile rank 78.8% by absolute move · full history (n=146)
ETH 1W RR25 -0.23 vol pts · Δ +0.23 vol ptspercentile rank 13.3% by absolute move · full history (n=30)
SOL 1W RR25 3.87 vol pts · Δ +2.83 vol ptspercentile rank 65.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=20)
Wings
BTC Unavailable
ETH Unavailable
SOL Unavailable
IV versus RV
BTC Unavailable
ETH Unavailable
SOL Unavailable
Unavailable readings: BTC Wings; BTC IV versus RV; ETH Wings; ETH IV versus RV; SOL Wings; SOL IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: BTC 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC; ETH 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC; SOL 17 Sept 2026, 16:39 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
Historical move evidence
BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 95.9% by absolute move · full history (n=146)
BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 78.8% by absolute move · full history (n=146)
ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · full history (n=30)
ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 13.3% by absolute move · full history (n=30)
SOL 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 70.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=20)
SOL 1W RR25: percentile rank 65.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=20)
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| ETH | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| SOL | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 17 Sept 2026, 16:39:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
ETH · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 17 Sept 2026, 16:39:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
SOL · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 17 Sept 2026, 16:39:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical SOL index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
A derived publication with no duplicated market data.
The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.