Daily SOL options market report · 24-hour comparison
Solana options remain cheap to realised volatility
Solana one-week implied volatility remained below seven-day realised volatility. The front end softened and two-week skew moved toward puts while remaining call-rich. The evidence is retained as context and does not establish causation for the measured options move.
Prior comparison unavailable: the published 2026-09-03 edition is verified but ends at 3 Sept, 16:38 UTC; this window requires 3 Sept, 16:48 UTC.
A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.
Next daily cutoff: measurable checks
These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.
Hold the observed level: SOL 1W ATM IV ≤ 48.96 percent at . Current level 48.96; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: SOL 1W ATM IV ≥ 51.46 percent at . Current level 48.96; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt
These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.
SOL:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00 to 2026-09-05T16:48:00+00:00.
SOL:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=SOL].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-09-04T16:48:00+00:00 to 2026-09-05T16:48:00+00:00.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
4 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -2.50 volatility points, to 48.96%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
03 Sept 2026, 16:48 UTC to 04 Sept 2026, 16:48 UTC
News context unavailable.
News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the SOL volatility surface.
Implied versus realised
At the 16:48 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 48.96%, 9.55 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 58.51%; 24-hour realised volatility was 73.62% and 30-day realised volatility was 65.34%.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -2.13 volatility points to 50.25% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -2.22 volatility points to 1.88 volatility points across the four available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.27 volatility points to 3.95 volatility points across the four available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.50 volatility points at 1W, to 48.96%.
Universe roll: added 6SEP26; removed 4SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -2.22 volatility points to 1.88 volatility points across the four available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.27 volatility points to 3.95 volatility points across the four available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.6d
Smile rotation
5SEP26, -22.72 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentComparison snapshot
Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 6M, 9M, 1Y.
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
5SEP26Expiry effect
0.6 days
101.98
-2.58 USD
53.99%
-3.64 vol pts
-5.90 vol pts
-3.46 vol pts
11SEP26
6.6 days
101.98
-2.58 USD
48.74%
-2.55 vol pts
-1.19 vol pts
-0.51 vol pts
18SEP26
13.6 days
101.98
-2.58 USD
50.84%
-2.09 vol pts
-2.71 vol pts
-0.29 vol pts
25SEP26
20.6 days
102.09
-2.56 USD
50.82%
-1.66 vol pts
-1.83 vol pts
-0.21 vol pts
30OCT26
55.6 days
102.14
-2.57 USD
51.07%
-2.16 vol pts
-2.90 vol pts
-0.16 vol pts
25DEC26
111.6 days
102.4
-2.59 USD
50.85%
-2.08 vol pts
-2.59 vol pts
-0.09 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
5SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening11SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening18SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening25SEP26rotation towards puts30OCT26rotation towards puts25DEC26rotation towards puts
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
5SEP26
11SEP26
18SEP26
25SEP26
30OCT26
25DEC26
-0.30kATM+0.30k
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against US equity risk.
SOL 30-day implied volatility was 3.7 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was low at 0.23.
Implied-volatility premium
SOL 30-day ATM IV was 52.88%, against VIX at 14.32: a 38.56-point spread and 3.69× ratio.
Realised-volatility regime
SOL reported crypto realised volatility was 73.85%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 8.49%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 52.5% of 221 prior observations.
Equity co-movement
Return correlation with SPX was 0.232 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.396 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 11.68, 14.32 and 17.42.
RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.
As of 03 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.
Evidence and methodology
Persisted DerivaSys market-context v1. Crypto RV is annualised with sqrt(365); SPX RV with sqrt(252). Sources: DerivaSys fixed-tenor surface/canonical crypto index and Yahoo Finance ^VIX/^GSPC.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-09-03 16:48:00 UTC → 2026-09-04 16:48:00 UTC
Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.
Original report summary
Solana one-week implied volatility remained below seven-day realised volatility. The front end softened and two-week skew moved toward puts while remaining call-rich. The evidence is retained as context and does not establish causation for the measured options move.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: SOL 1W ATM IV 48.96% · Δ -2.50 vol pts
Skew: SOL 1W RR25 2.09 vol pts · Δ -1.24 vol pts
Wings: SOL 1W BF25 3.27 vol pts · Δ -0.54 vol pts
Vol
SOL 1W ATM IV 48.96% · Δ -2.50 vol pts
Skew
SOL 1W RR25 2.09 vol pts · Δ -1.24 vol pts
Wings
SOL 1W BF25 3.27 vol pts · Δ -0.54 vol pts
IV versus RV
SOL Unavailable
Unavailable readings: SOL IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25DEC26; the largest sigma change occurred at 25DEC26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
5SEP26
-0.00500
-0.04060
-0.13150
-0.04740
+0.18160
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
11SEP26
+0.00480
-0.01210
-0.01590
-0.00280
+0.00440
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
18SEP26
+0.00550
-0.00680
-0.04240
+0.00280
-0.01400
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25SEP26
+0.00380
-0.00990
+0.02240
+0.03260
-0.00410
rotation towards puts
30OCT26
+0.01960
-0.02210
+0.02470
+0.06400
-0.05530
rotation towards puts
25DEC26
+0.03160
-0.03130
+0.04520
+0.08270
-0.07810
rotation towards puts
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-SOL ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
SOL · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 04 Sept 2026, 16:48:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical SOL index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical SOL-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-SOL ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
